Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 43.00 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish
We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading within a well-defined 3+ month uptrend that began in late-May. We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is breaking out of a 9-month base to all-time highs. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is breaking above $226-$227 resistance and RS is at 6-month highs. RS on Consumer Staples (XLP) is testing YTD lows. Equal-weighted Retail (XRT) displays a fresh breakout to 3.5+ year highs. Also at new YTD highs include Cannabis names (MSOS), Bitcoin miners (WGMI), solar (TAN), hydrogen/fuel cells (HYDR), homebuilders (ITB), and China (MCHI); these areas remain current leadership, and they can lead for months or more at a time. If these areas are still leading, it suggests risk appetites remain strong and that the bull market is in full swing... see chart below and page 3.
Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On. Additional market dynamics which support our bullish outlook include: (1) High yield spreads are at narrows last seen in 2005-2007. (2) Defensive Sectors including Consumer Staples (XLP) and Health Care (XLV) are at 25+ year lows, while RS for Real Estate (XLRE) is at all-time lows. (3) Semiconductors (SMH) remain above crucial support at $280. (4) Semiconductors (SMH) and speculative growth areas (ARKX, TAN, IPO, FFTY, WGMI, etc.) remain leadership. (5) The 10-year Treasury yield has not been able to break above 4.50%, let alone the major 4.70%-4.80% resistance level. (6) Interest rate volatility (MOVE index) is at 3.5-year lows. (7) Breadth metrics remain healthy, with the S&P 500 advance/decline (A/D) line hitting new high just last week while the % of Russell 2000 and S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day MAs hit 8+ month highs. (8) The U.S. dollar (DXY) remains below $100. (9) Non-U.S. equities (ACWX) remain bullish. (10) Ether is outperforming Bitcoin. (11) Ether (ETHUSD) remains above $3950-$4000. (12) Silver is outperforming gold. This risk-on list is overpowering; stay bullish... see page 4.
Underlyings
ARHAUS INC

Bristow Group Inc

Cavco Industries Inc.

Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through a network of independent and the company-owned retailers, planned community operators and residential developers, marketed under a variety of brand names including Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor, Fairmont, Friendship, Chariot Eagle and Lexington. The company is also a producer of park model RVs, vacation cabins and systems-built commercial structures, as well as modular homes built under the Nationwide Homes brand. Each home contains a living room, dining area, kitchen, one to five bedrooms and one or more bathrooms, is equipped with central heat and hot water systems, kitchen appliances, floor coverings and window treatments.

D.R. Horton Inc.

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding company. The company's business operations consist of homebuilding, a majority-owned residential lot development company, financial services and other activities. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in its homebuilding markets. The company's subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, provides mortgage financing services primarily to its homebuyers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. The company's subsidiary title companies serve as title insurance agents by providing title insurance policies, examination and closing services, primarily to its homebuyers.

Haverty Furniture Cos. Inc.

Haverty Furniture Companies is a retailer of residential furniture and accessories. The company carries mattress product lines such as Sealy?, Tempur-Pedic?, Serta?, Stearns & Foster? and Beautyrest Black? in addition to its private label Skye?. The company also provides financing by a third-party finance companies or through an internal revolving charge credit plan. The company operates stores in the Southern and Midwest regions. All of the company's retail locations are operated using the Havertys name and it does not franchise its stores.

KB Home

KB Home is a homebuilding company. The company builds a variety of homes designed primarily for first-time and first move-up, as well as second move-up and active adult homebuyers, including attached and detached single-family residential homes, townhomes and condominiums. The company's financial services operations provide various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where it builds homes and provide title services in certain of those markets. The company's financial services operations also provide mortgage banking services, including residential consumer mortgage loan originations, to its homebuyers indirectly through KBHS Home Loans, LLC, a joint venture the company formed with Stearns Lending, LLC.

Lennar Corporation Class A

Lennar is a homebuilder in the United States, an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans, a provider of title insurance and closing services and a developer of multifamily rental properties. The company's homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes as well as the purchase, development and sale of residential land directly and through unconsolidated entities in which it has investments. The company operates under the Lennar brand name. The company creates and participates in joint ventures that acquire and develop land for its homebuilding operations, for sale to third parties or for use in the ventures' own homebuilding operations.

M/I Homes Inc.

M/I Homes is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family residential homes. The company designs, sells and builds single-family homes on developed lots, which it develops or purchases ready for home construction. The company also purchases undeveloped land to develop into developed lots for future construction of single-family homes and, on a limited basis, for sale to others. The company has two operations: homebuilding and financial services. The company's homebuilding operations have two reporting segments: the Northern and Southern regions. The company's financial services operations support its homebuilding operations by providing mortgage loans and title services to the customers of its homebuilding operations.

Meritage Homes Corporation

Meritage Homes is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in designing and building single-family homes. The company provides homes that are designed with a focus on first-time and first move-up buyers. The company also operates a title company, Carefree Title Agency, Inc. (Carefree Title). Carefree Title's core business includes title insurance and closing/settlement services the company provides to its homebuyers. The company operates an insurance broker, Meritage Homes Insurance Agency (Meritage Insurance). Meritage Insurance works in collaboration with insurance companies to provide homeowners insurance and other various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where the company builds homes.

NVR Inc.

NVR is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are constructed on a pre-sold basis. The company conducts its homebuilding activities directly. The company's homebuilding operations construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings under three trade names: Ryan Homes, which is marketed primarily to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes, which are marketed primarily to move-up and luxury buyers. The company's mortgage banking operations also include separate subsidiaries that broker title insurance and perform title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings.

Oceaneering International Inc.

Oceaneering International is a provider of engineered services and products, primarily to the offshore oil and gas industry. The company's segments are: Energy Services and Products; and Advanced Technologies. The company's business segments within the Energy Services and Products business are remotely operated vehicles, subsea products, subsea projects and asset integrity. The company's Advanced Technologies segment consists of government; and commercial business units: Government services and products include engineering and related manufacturing in defense and space exploration activities. The company's commercial business unit provides a turnkey solution that includes program management, and engineering design.

PulteGroup Inc.

PulteGroup through its subsidiaries is engaged in the homebuilding business. The company also has mortgage banking operations, conducted principally through its susidiary, Pulte Mortgage LLC, and title and insurance brokerage operations. The company's homebuilding business includes the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes within the United States. The company provides a variety of home designs, including single-family detached, townhouses, condominiums, and duplexes at different prices and with varying levels of options and amenities to its customer groups: first-time, move-up, and active adult.

Subsea 7 S.A. ADS

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

Taylor Morrison Home is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates a residential homebuilding business and is a developer of lifestyle communities. The company provides a variety of homes across a range of price points. The company operates under the Taylor Morrison and Darling Homes brand names. The company also provides financial services to customers through its mortgage subsidiary, Taylor Morrison Home Funding, LLC, title insurance and closing settlement services through its title company, Inspired Title Services, LLC, and homeowner's insurance policies through its insurance agency, Taylor Morrison Insurance Services, LLC. The company's segments are: East, Central, West and Financial Services.

TechnipFMC Plc

TechnipFMC is global leader in oil and gas projects, technologies, systems, and services. Co. offers subsea, surface, onshore, and offshore solutions for oil and gas projects. Co. serves customers worldwide. With Co.'s technologies and production systems, integrated expertise, and comprehensive solutions, Co. is transforming Co.'s clients' project economics. Co. is uniquely positioned to deliver greater efficiency across project lifecycles from concept to project delivery and beyond. Through innovative technologies and improved efficiencies, Co.'s offering unlocks new possibilities for Co.'s clients in developing their oil and gas resources.

Tidewater Inc

Tidewater provides offshore marine support and transportation services to the global offshore energy industry through the operation of a fleet of marine service vessels. The company's vessels and associated vessel services provide support of several phases of offshore oil and natural gas exploration, field development and production. These services include towing of, and anchor handling for, mobile offshore drilling units; transporting supplies and personnel necessary to sustain drilling, workover and production activities; offshore construction and seismic and subsea support; and a variety of services such as pipe and cable laying.

Tri Pointe Homes Inc.

TRI Pointe Group is engaged in the design, construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes through its portfolio of six brands across 10 states, including Maracay in Arizona, Pardee Homes in California and Nevada, Quadrant Homes in Washington, Trendmaker Homes in Texas, TRI Pointe Homes in California, Colorado and the Carolinas and Winchester Homes in Maryland and Virginia. The company has two businesses: homebuilding, in which the company acquires and develops land and constructs and sells single-family detached and attached homes; and financial services, which consists of mortgage financing, title and escrow services, and property and casualty insurance agency operations.

Williams-Sonoma Inc.

Williams-Sonoma is a retailer of products for the home. The company has two reportable segments, e-commerce and retail. The e-commerce segment has the following merchandise strategies: Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, West Elm, PBteen, Williams Sonoma Home, Rejuvenation and Mark and Graham, which sell the company's products through its e-commerce websites and direct-mail catalogs. The retail segment, which includes the company's franchise operations, has the following merchandise strategies: Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, West Elm and Rejuvenation, which sell the company's products through its retail stores.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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