Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Momentum Starting to Wane?We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term out-look
remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). It is important to note that markets do
not always maintain their upward trajectory at the same pace that we have seen over the
last 2-month. We would welcome pullbacks and corrective action to take place. Our nearterm bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and
Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs. We will maintain our bullish intermediateterm outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 5700-5785.
Short-term support on SPX is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at
5804-5854 and 5700-5785.
• High Yield Spreads Continue to Collapse. High yield spreads are not pricing in any
market risk as the markets remain near their recent highs. Over the last 30 years high
yield spreads have breached the +300 level only one time, which
Bank of America is a bank and a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. The company's segments include: Consumer Banking, which provides credit, banking and investment products and services; Global Wealth & Investment Management, which provides investment management, brokerage, banking and retirement products; Global Banking, which provides lending-related products and services, integrated working capital management and treasury solutions, and underwriting and advisory services; and Global Markets, which provides sales and trading services and research services.
Citigroup is a financial services holding company whose businesses provide consumers, corporations, governments and institutions with a range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, trade and securities services and wealth management. The company operates via two primary business segments: Global Consumer Banking, which provides banking services to retail customers through retail banking, Citi-branded cards and Citi retail services; and Institutional Clients Group, which includes banking and markets and securities services.
Goldman Sachs Group is a bank holding company and financial holding company. The company is a global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a range of financial services to corporations, financial institutions, governments and individuals. The company operates in four business segments: Investment Banking, which serves public and private sector clients and provides financial advisory services; Global Markets, which serves its clients who come to the company to buy and sell financial products, raise funding and manage risk; Asset Management, which provides investment services; and Consumer & Wealth Management, which provides a range of wealth advisory and banking services.
JPMorgan Chase is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company's segments include: Consumer and Community Banking, which provides services through bank branches, ATMs, digital (including mobile and online) and telephone banking; Corporate and Investment Bank, which consists of Banking and Markets and Securities Services, provides a suite of investment banking, market-making, prime brokerage, and treasury and securities products and services; Commercial Banking, which provides financial solutions, including lending, treasury services, investment banking and asset management products; and Asset and Wealth Management, which is engaged in investment and wealth management.
Morgan Stanley is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the company advises, and originates, trades, manages and distributes capital for, governments, institutions and individuals. The company's segments are: Institutional Securities, which provides investment banking, sales and trading, lending and other services; Wealth Management, which provides brokerage and investment advisory services, financial and wealth planning services, stock plan administration services, annuity and insurance products, residential real estate loans and other lending products, banking, and retirement plan services; and Investment Management, which provides investment strategies and products.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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