Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.41 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Bifurcation Continues; Banks Remain A Concern

The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally. As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market. We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.

Key Resistance Levels. We believe there is strong possibility that the lows for this correction have already been established, but we are watching several indexes that remain below important resistance levels. This includes: 4600 on the S&P 500, $110 on the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW), $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), the downtrend/$111 on the S&P Small-Cap 600 (IJR), $507 on the SOX index (SOXX), the downtrend/$73 on regional banks (KRE), $65.50 on homebuilders (ITB), and $33 on China internet (KWEB). As long as these indexes are below their respective resistance levels, we are neutral at best on the broad market... see charts below and pages 3-5.
10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion. The 10Y-2Y yield curve officially inverted late last week, meaning a US recession is a virtual certainty within the next 1-2 years. This is something to keep top of mind moving forward, but it is rarely a sell signal, as the S&P 500 tends to gain an average of 15% before the ultimate recession-induced top.
High Yield Spreads, US Dollar. High yield spreads are testing support at 375 bps; this remains an important spot that we are monitoring, and we need to see spreads narrow to less than 375 bps in order to alleviate concerns. The US dollar (DXY) remains near new highs with the uptrend intact. As long as spreads are above 375 bps and the DXY remains in an uptrend, a sustainable new bull market is not likely to happen... see page 6.
Underlyings
Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Assured Guaranty is a Bermuda-based holding company that provides, through its operating subsidiaries, credit protection products to the U.S. and international public finance including infrastructure and structured finance markets. The company markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities as well as to investors in such obligations. The company guarantees obligations issued in the U.S. and the U.K, and also guarantees obligations issued in other countries and regions. The company's financial guaranty direct and assumed businesses provide credit protection on public finance, infrastructure and structured finance obligations.

Axis Capital Holdings Limited

Bio-Techne Corporation

Bio-Techne and its subsidiaries develop, manufacture and sell biotechnology life science reagents, instruments and services for the research and clinical diagnostic markets.Co.'s segments: Protein Sciences, which developes and manufactures purified proteins and reagent solutions, cytokines and growth factors, antibodies, immunoassays, biologically active small molecule compounds, tissue culture reagents and T-Cell activation technologies; and Diagnostics and Genomics, which develops and manufactures diagnostic products, including Food and Drug Administration-regulated controls, calibrators, blood gas and clinical chemistry controls and other reagents for Original Equipment Manufacturer.

CI Global Infrastructure Private Pool

CNA Financial Corporation

CNA Financial is an insurance holding company. The company's property and casualty and remaining life and group insurance operations are primarily conducted by its subsidiaries. The company's insurance products primarily include commercial property and casualty coverages, including surety. The company's services include warranty, risk management information services and claims administration. The company's commercial property and casualty underwriting operations in the United States consists of field underwriting locations and centralized processing operations which handle policy processing, billing and collection activities and also act as call centers to support service.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a mining company. The company operates assets with proven and probable reserves of copper, gold and molybdenum, and the company is a publicly traded copper producer. The company's portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, copper and gold deposits; and mining operations in North America and South America, including the Morenci minerals district in Arizona and the Cerro Verde operation in Peru. The company has organized its mining operations into four primary divisions: North America copper mines, South America mining, Indonesia mining and Molybdenum mines.

Hanover Insurance Group Inc.

The Hanover Insurance Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company business operations are property and casualty insurance products and services. The company markets its products and services through independent agents and brokers. The company conducts three operating segments: Commercial Lines, which includes commercial multiple peril, commercial automobile, workers' compensation, and other commercial coverages; Personal Lines, which includes personal automobile, homeowners, and other personal coverages; and Other, which provides investment advisory services to affiliates and also manages assets for unaffiliated institutions such as insurance companies, retirement plans and foundations.

Henry Schein Inc.

Schein (Henry) provides health care products and services to office-based dental and medical practitioners. The health care distribution segment distributes consumable products, small equipment, laboratory products, large equipment, equipment repair services, branded and generic pharmaceuticals, vaccines, surgical products, diagnostic tests, infection-control products and vitamins. The company's technology group offerings include practice management software systems for dental and medical practitioners. The company's practice solutions include financial services on a non-recourse basis, e-services, practice technology, network and hardware services, and continuing education services for practitioners.

Markel Corporation

Markel is a financial holding company. The company's business operations are: Underwriting, which comprised of risk-bearing insurance and reinsurance operations; Investing, which is primarily related to underwriting operations; Markel Ventures, Inc., includes controlling interests in a portfolio of businesses that operate outside of the specialty insurance marketplace; Insurance-linked securities, which include investment fund managers that provide investment products, including insurance-linked securities, catastrophe bonds, insurance swaps and weather derivatives; and Program services, which serves as a fronting platform that provides access to property and casualty insurance market.

McKesson Corporation

McKesson provides pharmaceuticals and medical supplies and services to its customers. The company's segments include: U.S. Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions, which provides distribution and logistics services for branded, generic, specialty, biosimilar and over-the-counter pharmaceutical drugs and other healthcare-related products to customers; European Pharmaceutical Solutions, which provides distribution and services to wholesale, institutional and retail customers in European countries where it owns, partners or franchises with retail pharmacies; and Medical-Surgical Solutions, which delivers medical-supply distribution, logistics, biomedical and other services to healthcare providers.

Patterson Companies Inc.

Patterson Companies is a distributor serving the U.S. and Canadian dental supply and the U.S., Canadian and U.K. animal health supply markets. The company operates through two business units, Patterson Dental and Patterson Animal Health. Patterson Dental provides consumable products, including infection control, restorative materials, hand instruments and sterilization products; technology dental equipment; technology solutions, including practice management software and e-commerce solutions; patient education systems; and office forms and stationery to dentists, dental laboratories, institutions, and other healthcare personnel. Patterson Animal Health is a distributor of animal health products.

Selective Insurance Group Inc.

Selective Insurance Group has four segments: Standard Commercial Lines, which is comprised of property and casualty insurance products and services provided in the standard marketplace to commercial enterprises; Standard Personal Lines, which is comprised of property and casualty insurance products and services provided to individuals acquiring coverage in the standard marketplace; Excess and Surplus Lines, which is comprised of insurance products and services provided to customers who are unable to obtain coverage in the standard marketplace; and Investments, which invests the premiums collected by the company's insurance operations and amounts generated through its capital management strategies.

Southern Copper Corporation

Southern Copper is a copper producer. The company's mining, smelting and refining facilities are located in Peru and Mexico and the company conducts exploration activities in those countries and in Argentina, Chile and Ecuador. The company's Peruvian copper operations involve mining, milling and flotation of copper ore to produce copper concentrates and molybdenum concentrates, the smelting of copper concentrates to produce blister and anode copper, and the refining of anode copper to produce copper cathodes. The company's Mexican operations are conducted through its subsidiary, Minera Mexico, S.A. de C.V., which engages primarily in the mining and processing of copper, molybdenum, zinc, silver, gold and lead.

Taranis Resources Inc.

Taranis Resources is an exploration stage company. Co. is in the process of acquiring and exploring its mineral properties and has not yet determined whether the properties contain ore reserves that are economically recoverable.

Taseko Mines Limited

Taseko Mines is engaged in the exploration, acquisition, development and sale of gold copper, molybdenum, niobium and other related mines within the province of British Columbia, Canada.

W. R. Berkley Corporation

W. R. Berkley is an insurance holding company. The company operates in two segments of the property casualty insurance business: Insurance, which includes commercial insurance business, including excess and surplus lines, admitted lines and specialty personal lines throughout the United States, as well as insurance business in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, South America, Canada, Mexico, Scandinavia, Asia and Australia; and Reinsurance, which provides reinsurance business on a facultative and treaty basis, primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Australia, the Asia-Pacific region and South Africa.

Western Copper and Gold

Western Copper and Gold is an exploration stage company that is engaged in exploration and development of the Casino mineral property located in Yukon, Canada. The Casino property is host to one of the undeveloped porphyry deposits in Canada containing large amounts of gold, copper, and molybdenum in its one billion tonnes of reserves.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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