Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 236.15 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Fourth time's a charm?

Global equities (ACWI) and the equal-weighted S&P 500 are attempting to break out for the fourth time this year from what has seemed like a never-ending horizontal consolidation period. At some point this consolidation will come to an end, however the weight of the evidence is not yet telling us “this time is different.” Despite some recent encouraging and positive developments from areas such as retail (XRT), EM (EEM), and European Banks (EUFN), we remain in wait-and-see mode as the market approaches resistance. Below we detail why we remain hesitant to call this a bull market along with what it would take to improve our outlook.

• Cyclical Sectors Unable to Break Out. At this point in time, not one cyclical GICS Sector is breaking out to new highs -- only Utilities, Staples, and Real Estate have hit meaningful new price highs since July. We will need to see breakouts from cyclicals in order for there to be a chance at a broad market advance... see page 3.

• Small-Caps, Banks, Transports, Retail. We continue to keep our eyes on pockets of the market that have been the down-and-out laggards over the past 1.5-2 years. These areas are participating in this latest leg higher, however we have seen them make rally attempts several times this year -- only to have them fail at resistance... see pages 4-5.

• US Dollar (DXY), Foreign Equities. The DXY has continued to weaken following its short-term breakdown last Wednesday, and is now approaching longer-term support. We continue to believe a gradual weakening of the USD would aid EM and international equities -- something that is starting to take hold. Still, the STOXX Europe 600 index remains below 395 resistance... see page 6.

• 10-Year Treasury Yield, S&P 500. The 10-year yield continues to show signs that it is trying to bottom. Using 2011-2012 and 2016 as our guide, we continue to believe rates will need to bottom in order for the market to break out in a meaningful way... see page 7.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials: CD-36 Retailers, Off-Price, FN-15 Banks, Super-Regional, MA-12 Construction Materials/Products, and MA-16 Forest Products, Diversified... see pages 15-25.
Underlyings
Boise Cascade Co.

Boise Cascade is a wood products manufacturer and building materials distributor. The company's line of products is used primarily in new residential construction, residential repair-and-remodeling projects, light commercial construction, and industrial applications. The company has two reportable segments. The company's Wood Products segment manufactures laminated veneer lumber, I-joists, and laminated beams, which are collectively referred to as engineered wood products (EWP). The company's Building Materials Distribution segment sells a line of building materials, including oriented strand board, plywood, lumber, general line items such as siding, composite decking, metal products, insulation, and roofing, and EWP.

BURLINGTON STORES INC.

Burlington Stores is a holding company. Through its indirect subsidiary, Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation sells merchandise including: women's ready-to-wear apparel, accessories, footwear, menswear, youth apparel, baby, home, coats, beauty, toys and gifts. The company operates stores under the names Burlington Stores, Cohoes Fashions, Super Baby Depot, MJM Designer Shoes and an online store. Cohoes Fashions provides products similar to those offered by Burlington Stores. MJM Designer Shoes provides moderately priced designer and fashion shoes. The Super Baby Depot stores provides baby clothing, accessories, furniture and other merchandise in the middle to higher price range.

Caesarstone Ltd.

Caesarstone is engaged in manufacturing engineered quartz surfaces. Co. sells its products under its Caesarstone brand in more than 50 countries, offering a spectrum of design options in the engineered quartz surface industry with different colors, textures and finishes. Its designs range from fine-grained patterns to coarse-grained color blends. Co.'s engineered quartz slabs measure 120 inches long by 56 1/2 inches wide and 130 inches long by 65 inches wide with a thickness of 1/2 of an inch, 3/4 of an inch or 1 1/4 inches. Engineered quartz surfaces consist of approximately 90% natural crushed quartz and approximately 10% polyester and other polymer resin and pigments.

Eagle Materials Inc.

Eagle Materials, through its subsidiaries, is a supplier of heavy construction materials, light building materials, and materials used for oil and natural gas extraction in the U.S. The company's products are commodities that are used in commercial and residential construction; public construction projects; projects to build, expand, and repair roads and highways; and in oil and natural gas extraction. The company's business is organized into three sectors: Heavy Materials, which includes the cement and concrete and aggregates segments; Light Materials, which includes the Gypsum wallboard and recycled paperboard segments; and Oil and Gas Proppants, which are used in oil and gas extraction.

Foundation Building Materials

Foundation Building Materials is a specialty distributor of wallboard, suspended ceiling systems and metal framing in the U.S and Canada. The company's products include: wallboard, which is used in new construction and renovation projects; suspended ceiling systems, which are sold into both non-residential repair and remodel and new non-residential construction markets; metal framing, which provides metal framing and other framing products for various uses, including interior partitions and load bearing walls; and complementary and other products, which include tools and accessories such as wallboard accessories, safety accessories, fasteners, insulation, doors and roofing products.

James Hardie Industries PLC Chess Units of Foreign Securities

James Hardie Industries is engaged in the manufacturing and selling of fiber cement products and systems for internal and external building construction applications in the United States, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines and Europe. Co.'s fiber cement products are used in a number of markets, including new residential construction, manufactured housing, repair and remodeling and a variety of commercial and industrial applications. Co. manufactures numerous types of fiber cement products with a variety of patterned profiles and surface finishes for a range of applications, including external siding and soffit lining, internal linings, facades, and floor and tile underlayments.

KeyCorp

KeyCorp is a bank holding company. Through its principal subsidiary, KeyBank National Association and certain other subsidiaries, the company has the following main business segments: Consumer Bank, which serves individuals and small businesses by providing a variety of deposit and investment products, personal finance and financial wellness services, lending, mortgage and home equity, student loan refinancing, credit card, treasury services, and business advisory services; and Commercial Bank, which is focused principally on serving the needs of middle market clients in the following industry sectors, including consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology.

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation

Louisiana-Pacific is a provider of building solutions serving the new home construction, repair and remodeling and outdoor structures markets. The company has four segments: siding, which includes LP SmartSide? Strand and Fiber trim and siding, as well as LP Outdoor Building Solutions? products for outdoor buildings; oriented strand board (OSB), which manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel products; engineered wood products, which include LP SolidStart? I-Joist, Laminated Veneer Lumber, and other related products; and South America, which manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel and siding products in South America and certain export markets.

OWENS CORNING

Owens Corning is engaged in manufacturing and delivering a range of insulation, roofing, and fiberglass composite materials. The company's Composites segment includes vertically integrated downstream activities. The company manufactures, fabricates and sells glass reinforcements in the form of fiber. The company's Insulation segment includes a portfolio of high, mid and low-temperature products with a geographic mix of United States, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America, a market mix of residential, commercial, industrial and other markets, and a channel mix of retail, contractor and distribution. The company's products in the Roofing segment are laminate and strip asphalt roofing shingles.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc.

PNC Financial Services Group is a bank holding company. The company has businesses engaged in retail banking, including residential mortgage, corporate and institutional banking and asset management, providing its products and services nationally. The company's segments are: Retail Banking, which provides deposit, lending, brokerage, insurance services, investment management and cash management products and services; Corporate and Institutional Banking, which provides lending, treasury management, and capital markets-related products and services; Asset Management Group, which provides personal wealth management; and BlackRock, which provides a range of investment and technology services.

Regions Financial Corporation

Regions Financial is a banking holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company has the following segments: Corporate Bank, which represents its commercial banking functions including commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and investor real estate lending; Consumer Bank, which represents its branch network, including consumer banking products and services related to residential first mortgages, home equity lines and loans, branch small business loans, indirect loans, consumer credit cards and other consumer loans; and Wealth Management, which provides credit related products, trust and investment management, asset management, retirement and savings solutions and estate planning.

Ross Stores Inc.

Ross Stores and its subsidiaries operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores, which are Ross Dress for Less? (Ross) and dd's DISCOUNTS?. Ross provides name brand and designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at savings of 20% to 60% off department and specialty store regular prices every day. dd's DISCOUNTS provides name brand apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at savings of 20% to 70% off moderate department and discount store regular prices every day. Both of the company's Ross and dd's DISCOUNTS brands target women and men between the ages of 18 and 54.

TJX Companies Inc

TJX Companies is an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. The company's segments comprised of: Marmaxx, which sells family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise; HomeGoods, which provides a range of home fashions, including home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop and cookware as well as pet, kids and gourmet food departments; TJX Canada, which operates the Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls chains in Canada; and TJX International, which operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe and the T.K. Maxx chain in Australia.

Truist Financial Corporation

BB&T is a financial holding company. Through its bank subsidiary, Branch Banking and Trust Company, the company provides banking services to individuals, businesses and municipalities. The company provides loans and lease financing, including commercial and residential mortgages; permanent commercial real estate financing arrangements; loan servicing for third-party investors; direct consumer finance loans to individuals; credit card lending; automobile financing; and equipment financing. The company also provides other services, including deposits; discount and brokerage, annuities and mutual funds; life insurance, property and casualty insurance, health insurance and commercial general liability insurance.

U.S. Bancorp

U.S. Bancorp is a multi-state financial services holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services. The company also engages in credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing. The company's subsidiary, U.S. Bank National Association, is engaged in the general banking business, principally in domestic markets. The company's bank and trust subsidiaries provide a range of asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations and charitable organizations.

Weyerhaeuser Company

Weyerhaeuser is a real estate investment trust. The company's business segments are: Timberlands, which provides delivered logs (grade logs and fiber logs), timber, recreational leases and other products; Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources (ENR), in which Real Estate sells timberland tracts for recreational, conservation, commercial or residential purposes, whereas ENR sells rights to explore, extract and sell construction aggregates (rock, sand and gravel), industrial materials and oil and natural gas; and Wood Products, which provides structural lumber, oriented strand board, wood products, other products, and complementary building products.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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