Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 43.05 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM

The S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) each continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, and $208.75 on IWM) -- and have not closed below their 20-day MAs for two months. As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact. We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside. These supports were all tested yesterday, and all held in what could very well prove to be the peak of escalations in the Israel/Iran/U.S. conflict. Additionally, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well, as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX remains above 5700. Should there finally be a break of the 20-day MAs, we would expect a likely pullback to either 5804-5854 or 5700-5785 on the SPX.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Technology (
Underlyings
Biglari Holdings B

Biglari Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company engages in property and casualty insurance, media and licensing, restaurants, and oil and gas. The company operates its restaurants via its subsidiaries, Steak n Shake Inc. and Western Sizzlin Corporation. The company's insurance business included First Guard Insurance Company and its agency, 1st Guard Corporation, a direct underwriter of commercial truck insurance, selling physical damage and nontrucking liability insurance to truckers. The company's Maxim Inc. subsidiary's media business lies principally in media and licensing. The company's subsidiaries, Southern Oil Company and Southern Oil of Louisiana Inc. operate oil and natural gas properties.

BJ's Restaurants Inc.

BJ's Restaurants operates in the casual dining segment of the restaurant industry. The company's restaurants feature a number of menu offerings including: slow roasted entrees, such as, prime rib; EnLIGHTened Entrees? such as its Cherry Chipotle Glazed Salmon; its deep-dish pizza; the Pizookie? dessert; and its BJ's proprietary craft beers. The company owns and operates restaurants located in various states, and its proprietary craft beer is produced at various locations, its Temple, TX brewpub locations and by independent third party brewers using its proprietary recipes. The company also produces its proprietary non-alcoholic craft sodas including root beer, ginger beer, cream, orange and black cherry soda.

Brinker International Inc.

Brinker International is engaged in owning, developing, operating and franchising the Chili's? Grill & Bar (Chili's) and Maggiano's Little Italy? (Maggiano's) restaurant brands. Chili's operates in the bar and grill category of casual dining. Chili's menu includes burgers, fajitas, baby back ribs and margaritas. Chili's To Go menu is available online, by calling the restaurant, or through its mobile app. Maggiano's is a casual restaurant brand providing Italian-American cuisine. Dishes are served in both a la carte and family style. The company provides a range of lunch and dinner options, complimented by a wine list and cocktails.

Cal-Maine Foods Inc.

Cal-Maine Foods is a producer and marketer of shell eggs. The company has one operating segment, which is the production, grading, packaging, marketing and distribution of shell eggs. The company sells most of its shell eggs in the southwestern, southeastern, mid-western and mid-Atlantic regions of the U.S. through its distribution network to a group of customers, including national and regional grocery store chains, club stores, foodservice distributors and egg product consumers. The company markets cage-free eggs under its trademarked Farmhouse? brand and distributes them across the southeast and southwest regions of the U.S. The company markets organic, cage-free, vegetarian, and omega-3 eggs under its 4-Grain? brand.

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

The Cheesecake Factory operates casual dining restaurants. The company operates Company-owned restaurants under: The Cheesecake Factory?, which provides menu including appetizers, pizza, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, small plates, pastas, salads, sandwiches and omelettes, and gluten-free items; Grand Lux Cafe?, which provides American dishes and international favorites, including appetizers, pasta, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, salads, and desserts; and RockSugar Southeast Asian Kitchen?, which showcases the cuisines of Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and India. The company also produces desserts for its restaurants, international licensees and third-party bakery customers.

Darling Ingredients Inc.

Darling Ingredients is a global developer and producer of natural ingredients from edible and inedible bio-nutrients. The company's segments include: Feed Ingredients, which includes the collection and processing of beef, poultry and pork animal by-products in North America and Europe into non-food grade oils and protein meals; Food Ingredients, which includes the purchase and processing of beef and pork bone chips, beef hides, pig skins, and fish skins into collagen in Europe, China, South America and North America; and Fuel Ingredients, which converts animal fats, recycled greases, used cooking oil, inedible corn oil, soybean oil, or other feedstocks into renewable diesel.

Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc.

Dave & Buster's Entertainment is an owner and operator of entertainment and dining venues (stores) that operate under the name Dave & Buster's. The company's concept is to provide its customers the opportunity to Eat Drink Play and Watch all in one location for adults and families, while serving food and beverages. The company's Eat and Drink is provided through a menu of entrees and appetizers and a selection of non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages. The company's Play and Watch offerings provide an assortment of entertainment attractions centered around playing games and watching live sports and other televised events.

Dine Brands Global Inc.

Dine Brands Global owns, franchises and operates the Applebee's Neighborhood Grill + Bar? (Applebee's) concept in the bar and grill segment within the casual dining category of the restaurant industry and owns and franchises the International House of Pancakes? (IHOP) concept in the family dining category of the restaurant industry. Applebee's menu features a selection of grill and bar fare, such as appetizers, bar snacks, burgers, pasta entrees and lighter fare, as well as cocktails, beers and desserts. IHOP restaurants feature table service, and food and beverage offerings in a family atmosphere. The restaurants are known for pancakes.

Hormel Foods Corporation

Hormel Foods is primarily engaged in the production of meat and food products and the marketing of those products throughout the United States and internationally. The company's segments are: Grocery Products, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of shelf-stable food products; Refrigerated Foods, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of branded and unbranded pork, beef, chicken, and turkey products; Jennie-O Turkey Store, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of branded and unbranded turkey products; and International and Other, which includes Hormel Foods International Corporation that manufactures, markets, and sells the company's products internationally.

Mien Trung Power Investment and Development

Mien Trung Power Invs & Dev JSC. Mien Trung Power Investment and Development Joint Stock Company is a Vietnam-based company engaged in the electric utility sector. The Company principally generates and distributes hydroelectric power. It is also engaged in the provision of construction services of hydro power plants, civil and industrial works, as well as installation services of concrete components and steel structures for construction works. In addition, the Company is involved in the exploitation, manufacture and trade of construction materials, such as stones, sand and pebbles; as well as real estate activities and office leasing services. It supplies electric power to Khanh Hoa Power Joint Stock Company.

Nathan's Famous Inc.

Nathan's Famous is engaged in operating or franchising a chain of retail fast food restaurants featuring the Nathan's World Famous Beef Hot Dog, crinkle-cut French-fried potatoes and a variety of other menu offerings. The company also licenses the manufacture and sale of Nathan's Famous packaged hot dogs, crinkle-cut French fries and a number of other products to a variety of third parties for sale to supermarkets, club stores and grocery stores. The company is also the owner of the Arthur Treacher's brand. Arthur Treacher's main product is its Original Fish & Chips product consisting of fish fillets coated with a batter, deep-fried, and served with English-style chips and corn meal hush puppies.

Texas Roadhouse Inc.

Texas Roadhouse is a restaurant company operating predominately in the casual dining segment. The company operates Texas Roadhouse restaurants and Bubba's 33 restaurants. In addition, the company operates restaurants outside of the casual dining segment. The Texas Roadhouse restaurants provide an assortment of steaks hand-cut on the premises and cooked to order over open grills. In addition to steaks, the company also provides its guests a selection of ribs, seafood, chicken, pork chops, pulled pork and vegetable plates, hamburgers, salads and sandwiches. Bubba's 33 is a sports restaurant. The company's menu features burgers, pizza and wings as well as a variety of appetizers, sandwiches and dinner entrees.

Wingstop Inc.

Wingstop is a franchisor and operator of restaurants that focuses on cooked-to-order, hand-sauced and tossed chicken wings. The company provides its guests several flavors on its bone-in and boneless chicken wings and tenders paired with seasoned fries, Ranch, and Bleu Cheese dips. The company's proprietary flavors, which range from extremely hot to mild includes Atomic, Mango Habanero, Cajun, Original Hot, Spicy Korean Q, Louisiana Rub, Mild, Hickory Smoked BBQ, Lemon Pepper, Garlic Parmesan, and Hawaiian. To complement its wings, the company serves seasoned fries, as well as carrots and celery and Ranch and Bleu Cheese Dips made with buttermilk.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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