POWER & PUBLIC UTILITIES 2026 - FROM WORDS TO ACTIONS
2026 is expected to mark the initial phase of large-scale power infrastructure investment, supported by key policy frameworks finalized in 2025 to address the power supply - demand imbalance over the 2026–2030 period. Key policy drivers include:Expansion of installed capacity : Under the Revised Power Development Plan VIII (RPDP VIII ) and Resolution No. 70, installed power generation capacity by 2030 is targeted at 183-236 GW (CAGR of 10%/year). Policy direction prioritizes the accelerated development of low-emission energy, including LNG-fired power, solar, onshore and offshore wind.
Development of smart transmission infrastructure: Aimed at ensuring system balancing between major consumption centers in the Northern region and renewable energy (RE) generation hubs in the South-Central region.
Finalization electricity purchasing mechanism: The Ministry of Industry and Trade has completed the framework on price celling for offshore wind power and LNG-fired power, alongside supporting mechanisms. These measures aim to support investors interests and boost new capacity development for both domestic consumption and export market.
Retail electricity mechanism reforms: The rollout of retail electricity price adjustments, Direct Power Purchase Agreements (DPPA), and the two-component pricing model. These reforms support addressing EVN’s financial constraints, securing funding for energy infrastructure investment, and reducing policy-related risks in the sector development.
Thermal power back in the race
In 2026, thermal power plants may benefit from (1) higher dispatch levels during Neutral – El Niño climate conditions; and (2) fuel prices remaining at relatively low levels.
Urgent need for power system infrastructure expansion
RE expansion plans under the RPDP VIII , transmission system development targets, and growing electricity import demand continue to support momentum for the deployment of a new-generation smart power system.
EVN’s financial constraints gradually eased
Policies on retail electricity price increases, the two-component electricity pricing model, and Direct Power Purchase Agreements (DPPA) were approved in 2025. These measures help ease EVN’s financial burden, support project funding availability, and reduce policy-related risks in power sector development.
Risks to recommendations
Fuel prices may fluctuate due to exogenous events beyond company forecasts
Natural disasters and extreme climate events may affect power system operations
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