The impact of La Niña on Vietnam's Power sector in 2025
• The operational efficiency of hydroelectric power plants heavily depends on hydrological conditions. In 2024, the prolonged El-Nino phase negatively impacted hydroelectric power, but the following La-Nina cycle helped increase hydroelectric production by 9% YoY, while reducing the need to mobilize coal and gas power.• In 2025, the La Nina phase may extend until June or July 2025 before transitioning to a neutral phase. These conditions could support the recovery of hydroelectric power plant production, especially in 1H 2025.
• In 2024, the hydroelectric group’s production increased by 9% YoY, while the revenue of listed hydroelectric companies decreased by 13%. The revenue disparity stems from water inflows into reservoirs, with northern companies benefiting while those in the central and southern regions faced difficulties. In 2025, northern hydroelectric companies are expected to continue to benefit from favorable hydrological conditions in the north.
• In 2024, the production of coal-fired power increased by 18% YoY, but the revenue of four coal-fired power companies listed on the stock exchange only rose by 5% YoY due to climate change in the northern region. Thanks to its ability to provide cheap and stable electricity, coal-fired power production is expected to grow by about 10% YoY in 2025, in line with the forecasted system growth of 12,2% YoY.
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