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VIB - 2025F PBT forecast to grow 8% amid limit credit growth and narrowing NIM

• PBT for Q3/25 reached over VND 2 trillion, showing a 2% YoY growth but underperforming compared to Q2/25 (-22% QoQ), mainly due to: (1) a 55% QoQ decrease in non-interest income (including FX trading, securities investment, and NPL recovery), and (2) a sharp 82% QoQ increase in provision expenses. The cumulative PBT for the nine-month period recorded over VND 7 trillion (+7% YoY), achieving 64% of the full-year target. In Q3/25, the Super-High-Yield Account product no longer performed as effectively as in the previous quarter, resulting in a significant decline in the CASA ratio, alongside rising funding costs due to increased reliance on customer deposit funding. A positive note is the improving asset quality, with a reduction in net NPL formation and an enhanced NPL coverage ratio due to the bank's increased provision expenses.
• We revise down our 2025F PBT forecast for VIB by 8% (2025F PBT of VND 9.8 trillion, +9% YoY). Credit growth is expected to be constrained by the current credit quota (around 18%). In addition, NIM is revised down by 20 bps from our previous forecast to 3.1%, resulting in 2025F net interest income reaching only around VND 16.3 trillion (-3% YoY). However, credit costs are projected to be lower, down 10% from our previous estimate, thanks to the improving asset quality trend.
• 9T2025 Net Interest Income / Total Operating Income / Provision Expenses / PBT have achieved 73% / 72% / 71% / 72% of our full-year forecasts, respectively. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation with a target price of VND 21,500 per share (2026F P/B of 1.3x), equivalent to a 19% expected return (including VND 700 cash dividend) based on the closing price as of 05/12/2025.