Budimex: built on solid ground, priced for perfection (HOLD - transfer of coverage)
We transfer coverage of Budimex (BDX) and downgrade our rating to HOLD (from Buy), with a 12M price target (PT) of PLN 853 (vs. PLN 750 previously), implying 9% upside. After two years of relatively flat results in 2024-25, we expect 2026-27E to mark a return to double-digit yoy growth in both revenues and the order backlog. We forecast a solid EBIT CAGR of 11% for 2025-28E, supported by accelerating public infrastructure spending and improving contract flow. At the same time, we believe the current valuation already reflects a large part of this improvement and remains demanding, with the stock trading at 61-70% and 57-103% premiums to its global peers on the 2026-28E P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, respectively, well above its historical average premiums of c.26% and 5% vs. its global peers, and 73% and 39% for its Polish peers, respectively.Budimex S.A. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in building, assembly and erection works in the scope of general industrial and engineering construction, electrical power construction & assembly, environmental protection, road and highway construction, water and sewage system construction, the rendering of design services and technical and business consulting and real estate development. Co. maintains activities in strategic segments of the market, such as road and bridge construction, general construction works (office, hotel and institutes of higher education), and ecological/environment-related construction.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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