Pakistan Power_Generation exhibits seasonal dip, (AKD Daily, Dec 15, 2020)
AKD Daily
Pakistan Power: Generation exhibits seasonal dip
- CPPA-G data indicated power generation in Oct’20 increased 7% YoY to 10,243GWh, but was down 22%MoM due to onset of winters. For 4MFY21, FO based generation, while up 21%YoY, contributed 5% to the generation mix with RLNG/coal based generation rising to the fore, contributing c. ~40% to the power mix.
- Company wise, HUBC base plant remained in-operational in 4MFY21. While less severely affected, Nishat IPPs and Narowal also operated at 30-40% utilization levels. KAPCO, being multi fueled, operated at 39% in 4MFY21 slightly below its load factor in the same period last year. HUBC’s 2x660MW coal based power plant operated at 71% in 4MFY21 vs. 37% in SPLY.
- Power sector remains on the cusp of major transformation, with MoUs in process of being converted into formal agreements, and GoP mulling over the fate of HUBC’s 1,200MW Base plant, which has remained in-operational, and extension of KAPCO’s multi-fueled power plant (PPA expiry: Jun’21).
- However, HUBC’s management has remained proactive amid shifting power sector dynamics indicated by HUBC being the only listed IPP with CPEC power projects in portfolio. With foreign sponsors on board, while downward revision in RoEs for CPEC power projects remain a possibility, we believe US$ hedged returns may likely continue (unlike a shift from US$ based return to PkR for 2002/1994 PP power projects).
AKD Research
Hub Power Company is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a power producer in Pakistan that focuses on developing, owning, operating and maintaining power stations. Co. supplies electricity to Water and Power Development Authority and National Transmission and Despatch Company under long term Power Purchase Agreements for its Hub and Narowal plants respectively.
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