Report
FREE
LATEST
We have updated our valuation for Cementir, moving from a simple volume-based model to one based on DCF per geographic unit, which gives a more disciplined picture of how each part of the business performs. This includes listed subsidiaries like Çimentas and separates countries like Norway and Sweden, as shown in the 2024 report. With a new enterprise value of €3.36bn and a NAV-based target price of €21.6, we take a fresh look at the full investment story.
ANALYSIS
Introduction
Cementir Holding isn’t just in the business of making cement—it’s in the business of doing it differently. Based in Rome but operating across five continents, the company has built a global presence by focusing on a niche most overlooked: white cement. With a 20% share of the global market (excluding lower-grade variants), Cementir has turned a specialist product into a strategic asset. But behind the pale façade lies a story of financial caution, disciplined expansion, and a long-term strategy that has helped the group stay profitable while others chased scale and sometimes stumbled.
Where many peers burned cash during the last cycle’s acquisition frenzy, Cementir held its ground. Family-led and conservatively financed, the group avoided overpriced deals during the 2007–08 peak and consequently skipped the dilution ritual in the 2009 trough. Today, it sits on a net cash pile of €290m, targeting ~€700m by 2027—cash that may eventually fuel new expansion, but only at the right price.
Unlike vertically integrated giants focused on pure scale, Cementir blends geographic diversity with product specialisation, stretching across 18 countries on five continents. Its industrial footprint spans six key regions: the Nordic & Baltic, Belgium, Turkey, North America, Egypt, and Asia Pacific. Each region is run by local management, reflecting domestic market dynamics and regulatory realities. Denmark is the group’s innovation hub, while Turkey anchors its grey cement and industrial waste operations.
Operations
At first glance, cement might seem like a basic, boring material—but Cementir has built a global business by betting on something very different: white cement. Unlike the standard grey version used in sidewalks and driveways, white cement is a high-end product used in sleek modern buildings, designer façades, and ultra-strong concrete. It sells for nearly twice the price of grey cement, and because it’s lighter, purer, and easier to transport, Cementir has turned it into a global export business. Today, the company moves its product across borders using a network of logistics and local sales teams spanning more than 20 countries—accounting for roughly a quarter of all white cement trade worldwide.
But Cementir isn’t just playing in luxury. Its more conventional grey cement operations are anchored in Turkey, Belgium, and Denmark, where the company runs vertically integrated hubs—producing not just cement, but also the sand, gravel, and ready-mix concrete that go with it. This integrated setup helps lower costs and boost margins, while also giving Cementir room to innovate in recycling and waste management—turning industrial by-products into fuel and materials as part of its push for a greener footprint.
The thing worth noticing is Cementir’s unusually high level of transparency. According to the management, it stems from its small free float (25–27%), which has historically limited interest from large institutional investors. To counterbalance this, the company adopted a culture of maximum disclosure, reinforced by its listing on the star segment of the Milan Stock Exchange, which mandates rigorous reporting standards. Internally, Cementir is structured by regions, each with its own local CEO responsible for P&L, while strategic decisions, capital allocation and treasury are all managed centrally. As a counterpoint to its lean corporate office, the group maintains strong local management and operational autonomy.
In early 2025, Cementir undertook a binding agreement, subject to regulatory clearance, to sell its Kars plant in northeastern Turkey for €51 million—an impressive price for a small, remote site contributing less than 2% of group capacity. But the decision wasn’t driven by size; it reflected a deliberate shift in focus. Kars operated independently, far from Cementir’s core network and export routes. Stepping away from it allowed the company to concentrate on its more strategic hubs in Izmir, Elazig, and Edirne—locations better integrated into logistics corridors and closer to regions like Syria and Ukraine, where long-term reconstruction demand may eventually emerge.
This portfolio adjustment also draws attention to the growing importance of Cementir’s Turkish business. The group owns 97.3% of Çimentas Izmir, a listed company currently valued at around €900 million—nearly 40% of Cementir’s market capitalisation. While part of that valuation reflects limited market float and elevated trading multiples, it highlights how central Turkey has become to the group’s equity story. It also invites a broader reflection: if the market already values the Turkish platform so highly, certainly Cementir’s white cement leadership, European operations, and solid financial position remain underappreciated.
Waste potential
Cement production typically relies on burning fossil fuels at high temperatures, which makes it one of the more carbon-intensive industries. Cementir has taken a gradual but deliberate step to change that. Over the past ten years, the company has invested in waste management—not as a separate business, but as part of how it produces cement. In Turkey, through a subsidiary called Recydia, Cementir collects and processes industrial waste as fuel in the company’s kilns.
This approach helps lower carbon emissions and reduce dependence on traditional fuels like coal or natural gas. The company is actively investing to expand the use of alternative fuels, aiming to reach 48% of alternatives by 2030. In Belgium, Cementir has recently completed a major investment to boost the use of alternative fuels to 70%.
It is already making a difference in countries like Turkey, where waste-derived fuels now provide a meaningful share of the energy needed for production. These efforts aren’t designed to deliver big profits on their own—but they support Cementir’s wider aim of producing cement more responsibly, especially as environmental regulations tighten across Europe and beyond.
The Carbon Clock is Ticking
Cementir knows the rules of the game are changing. In Europe, the “Fit for 55” plan—a major climate initiative—means companies must cut emissions faster and more deeply than ever before. For a cement producer, that’s not a suggestion; it’s a requirement. Cementir has started adjusting accordingly. In its 2025–2027 plan, the company raised its growth targets and committed more resources to sustainability, including around €53 million earmarked for green investments.
The most ambitious of these is in Denmark, where Cementir is developing a carbon capture and storage (CCS) facility at its Aalborg plant. The idea is simple: trap CO2 before it enters the atmosphere and store it underground. Backed by a €220 million grant from the EU Innovation Fund and developed with industrial gas company Air Liquide, the project aims to cut 1.5 million tonnes of emissions per year by 2030. Cementir expects to invest about €90 million into the project, though it’s still in discussions with Danish authorities about support for operating costs in the years ahead.
Valuation
Our DCF model is built on conservative expectations based on moderate sales and EBITDA growth of 1% apiece in the out-years and, for capex, our expectations are in line with the company’s guidance to which we apply a 2% out-year growth reaching €125m in 2034.
SOTP valuation
We initially valued Cementir based on a volume-driven SOTP approach. However, we’ve now refined our methodology, shifting to a DCF-based NAV model that capitalises on the group’s detailed information. In this revision, we integrated both consolidated and listed subsidiaries, notably incorporating Cementir’s 97.3% stake in Çimentas — a publicly traded Turkish cement group — as well as its indirect exposure to CimBeton. Regional segments were also disentangled where needed: Norway and Sweden, for instance, were modelled separately to reflect their distinct operational profiles as disclosed in the 2024 annual report. This granular bottom-up recalibration yields a total enterprise value of €3.36 billion and supports a revised target share price of €21.1. Given the company’s disciplined capital deployment, resilient margins, and under-recognised upside from strategically located emerging market assets, we believe Cementir remains structurally undervalued by the market.
Please remember that the NAV approach is one of the five methods onboarded by AlphaValue to assess target prices. At pixel time, the target price for Cementir is €19.9, a +41% progress on the earlier metrics.
A niche strategy in a heavy industry
A niche strategy in a heavy industryLATEST
We have updated our valuation for Cementir, moving from a simple volume-based model to one based on DCF per geographic unit, which gives a more disciplined picture of how each part of the business performs. This includes listed subsidiaries like Çimentas and separates countries like Norway and Sweden, as shown in the 2024 report. With a new enterprise value of €3.36bn and a NAV-based target price of €21.6, we take a fresh look at the full investment story.
ANALYSIS
Introduction
Cementir Holding isn’t just in the business of making cement—it’s in the business of doing it differently. Based in Rome but operating across five continents, the company has built a global presence by focusing on a niche most overlooked: white cement. With a 20% share of the global market (excluding lower-grade variants), Cementir has turned a specialist product into a strategic asset. But behind the pale façade lies a story of financial caution, disciplined expansion, and a long-term strategy that has helped the group stay profitable while others chased scale and sometimes stumbled.
Where many peers burned cash during the last cycle’s acquisition frenzy, Cementir held its ground. Family-led and conservatively financed, the group avoided overpriced deals during the 2007–08 peak and consequently skipped the dilution ritual in the 2009 trough. Today, it sits on a net cash pile of €290m, targeting ~€700m by 2027—cash that may eventually fuel new expansion, but only at the right price.
Unlike vertically integrated giants focused on pure scale, Cementir blends geographic diversity with product specialisation, stretching across 18 countries on five continents. Its industrial footprint spans six key regions: the Nordic & Baltic, Belgium, Turkey, North America, Egypt, and Asia Pacific. Each region is run by local management, reflecting domestic market dynamics and regulatory realities. Denmark is the group’s innovation hub, while Turkey anchors its grey cement and industrial waste operations.
Operations
At first glance, cement might seem like a basic, boring material—but Cementir has built a global business by betting on something very different: white cement. Unlike the standard grey version used in sidewalks and driveways, white cement is a high-end product used in sleek modern buildings, designer façades, and ultra-strong concrete. It sells for nearly twice the price of grey cement, and because it’s lighter, purer, and easier to transport, Cementir has turned it into a global export business. Today, the company moves its product across borders using a network of logistics and local sales teams spanning more than 20 countries—accounting for roughly a quarter of all white cement trade worldwide.
But Cementir isn’t just playing in luxury. Its more conventional grey cement operations are anchored in Turkey, Belgium, and Denmark, where the company runs vertically integrated hubs—producing not just cement, but also the sand, gravel, and ready-mix concrete that go with it. This integrated setup helps lower costs and boost margins, while also giving Cementir room to innovate in recycling and waste management—turning industrial by-products into fuel and materials as part of its push for a greener footprint.
The thing worth noticing is Cementir’s unusually high level of transparency. According to the management, it stems from its small free float (25–27%), which has historically limited interest from large institutional investors. To counterbalance this, the company adopted a culture of maximum disclosure, reinforced by its listing on the star segment of the Milan Stock Exchange, which mandates rigorous reporting standards. Internally, Cementir is structured by regions, each with its own local CEO responsible for P&L, while strategic decisions, capital allocation and treasury are all managed centrally. As a counterpoint to its lean corporate office, the group maintains strong local management and operational autonomy.
In early 2025, Cementir undertook a binding agreement, subject to regulatory clearance, to sell its Kars plant in northeastern Turkey for €51 million—an impressive price for a small, remote site contributing less than 2% of group capacity. But the decision wasn’t driven by size; it reflected a deliberate shift in focus. Kars operated independently, far from Cementir’s core network and export routes. Stepping away from it allowed the company to concentrate on its more strategic hubs in Izmir, Elazig, and Edirne—locations better integrated into logistics corridors and closer to regions like Syria and Ukraine, where long-term reconstruction demand may eventually emerge.
This portfolio adjustment also draws attention to the growing importance of Cementir’s Turkish business. The group owns 97.3% of Çimentas Izmir, a listed company currently valued at around €900 million—nearly 40% of Cementir’s market capitalisation. While part of that valuation reflects limited market float and elevated trading multiples, it highlights how central Turkey has become to the group’s equity story. It also invites a broader reflection: if the market already values the Turkish platform so highly, certainly Cementir’s white cement leadership, European operations, and solid financial position remain underappreciated.
Waste potential
Cement production typically relies on burning fossil fuels at high temperatures, which makes it one of the more carbon-intensive industries. Cementir has taken a gradual but deliberate step to change that. Over the past ten years, the company has invested in waste management—not as a separate business, but as part of how it produces cement. In Turkey, through a subsidiary called Recydia, Cementir collects and processes industrial waste as fuel in the company’s kilns.
This approach helps lower carbon emissions and reduce dependence on traditional fuels like coal or natural gas. The company is actively investing to expand the use of alternative fuels, aiming to reach 48% of alternatives by 2030. In Belgium, Cementir has recently completed a major investment to boost the use of alternative fuels to 70%.
It is already making a difference in countries like Turkey, where waste-derived fuels now provide a meaningful share of the energy needed for production. These efforts aren’t designed to deliver big profits on their own—but they support Cementir’s wider aim of producing cement more responsibly, especially as environmental regulations tighten across Europe and beyond.
The Carbon Clock is Ticking
Cementir knows the rules of the game are changing. In Europe, the “Fit for 55” plan—a major climate initiative—means companies must cut emissions faster and more deeply than ever before. For a cement producer, that’s not a suggestion; it’s a requirement. Cementir has started adjusting accordingly. In its 2025–2027 plan, the company raised its growth targets and committed more resources to sustainability, including around €53 million earmarked for green investments.
The most ambitious of these is in Denmark, where Cementir is developing a carbon capture and storage (CCS) facility at its Aalborg plant. The idea is simple: trap CO2 before it enters the atmosphere and store it underground. Backed by a €220 million grant from the EU Innovation Fund and developed with industrial gas company Air Liquide, the project aims to cut 1.5 million tonnes of emissions per year by 2030. Cementir expects to invest about €90 million into the project, though it’s still in discussions with Danish authorities about support for operating costs in the years ahead.
Valuation
Our DCF model is built on conservative expectations based on moderate sales and EBITDA growth of 1% apiece in the out-years and, for capex, our expectations are in line with the company’s guidance to which we apply a 2% out-year growth reaching €125m in 2034.
SOTP valuation
We initially valued Cementir based on a volume-driven SOTP approach. However, we’ve now refined our methodology, shifting to a DCF-based NAV model that capitalises on the group’s detailed information. In this revision, we integrated both consolidated and listed subsidiaries, notably incorporating Cementir’s 97.3% stake in Çimentas — a publicly traded Turkish cement group — as well as its indirect exposure to CimBeton. Regional segments were also disentangled where needed: Norway and Sweden, for instance, were modelled separately to reflect their distinct operational profiles as disclosed in the 2024 annual report. This granular bottom-up recalibration yields a total enterprise value of €3.36 billion and supports a revised target share price of €21.1. Given the company’s disciplined capital deployment, resilient margins, and under-recognised upside from strategically located emerging market assets, we believe Cementir remains structurally undervalued by the market.
Please remember that the NAV approach is one of the five methods onboarded by AlphaValue to assess target prices. At pixel time, the target price for Cementir is €19.9, a +41% progress on the earlier metrics.
Underlying
Cementir Holding N.V.
Cementir Holding is an Italian multinational company that produces and distributes grey and white cement, ready-mix concrete, aggregates and concrete products.
Provider
AlphaValue Corporate Services
AlphaValue Corporate Services capitalise on the research and credit analysis expertise deployed by AlphaValue with major institutional investors at European level over the past nine years. The proprietary tools and processes enabling AlphaValue Corporate Services to establish a valuation and/or a credit risk assessment are identical to those used by AlphaValue to the benefit of its institutional clients. The only difference is the recognition that a company evaluation cannot be dissociated from the fact that the latter is paying for the service (AlphaValue Corporate Services), as opposed to the investor footing the bill (AlphaValue). AlphaValue’s research tools are characterised by the transparency of the valuation methodologies, their responsiveness to market data and by nine years’ experience of a universe numbering more than 450 European companies. Through its coverage and sector exhaustiveness, AlphaValue ranks alongside the major research houses in Europe and constitutes the only new entrant to the European space in the past decade. This significant presence is reflected in an unrivalled distribution capability via platforms commonly adopted by investors to access research: Factset, Bloomberg, Capital IQ and the numerous websites. AlphaValue is one the largest research contributors to these platforms, to the benefit of AlphaValue Corporate Services issuer clients. The AlphaValue Corporate Services analysts are AlphaValue’s sector specialists. Their robust knowledge of the business models in their sectors enables the rapid generation of incisive, relevant research and advantageous interaction with the management teams.
Egor Sonin
Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from AlphaValue Corporate Services
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.