Preliminary update (COURBET)
Preliminary updateOPINION CHANGE
CHANGE IN OPINION Add vs Sell
Pending further details on the works programme, financing, timetable and other information, we are updating our model to take into account: i/ the integration of the Hotel Mozart in Prague and the Christ Roi in Lourdes, and ii/ the accretion resulting from the €20m capital increase (€9m immediate in 2024 and deferred via ORA for the balance). Given COURBET AM's expectations in terms of future value creation, our recommendation is positive.
CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE € 3.98 vs 1.50 +165%
The target price has been revised sharply upwards due to the accretive effect of substantial capital increases of €3.40 in 2024 and €4.0 thereafter (via ORA). The model will be revised by the end of 2024, resulting in a change in the year-end to 31 December 2024. This should not materially impact our price target.
The estimates are based on an operational approach: they include the operation of all hotels in order to give an overall picture of the scope of consolidation. They will be adjusted when the hotel management contracts come into effect.
CHANGE IN EPS
2023 : € (0.03) vs (0.01) ns
2024 : € (0.09) vs 0.00 ns
Given the still low contribution of assets to revenues and EBITDA in 2024-25, our EPS estimates are slightly modified. The number of shares has been adjusted for recent share issues as part of the 2024 capital increases. Our EPS sequence does not include the effect of the conversion of the ORAs, which will create an additional 24% of shares over an as yet undetermined timeframe.
CHANGE IN NAV € 4.09 vs 1.51 +171%
We are revising our GAV to take into account a valuation of the Mozart Hotel of €73m by 2026. Its value will then be revised (the Company's valuation target is €90-100m) based on current economic parameters. Added to this are the values at maturity of all the other assets, following major works at La Bourboule, Cannes and Lourdes.
The debt used in our SOTP corresponds to the full forecast cash out (AV est.) linked to this works programme, which will enable the assets to be fully valued. Our NAV is close to the strike of the ORAs, i.e. €4.0 per share, which is intuitively consistent.
CHANGE IN DCF € 3.64 vs 1.47 +148%
The general parameters of our DCF are unchanged (beta, ‘g’, etc.). The change in our DCF valuation is the result of the increase in cash flows, largely linked to the Mozart hotel in Prague, as well as the accretive equity financing to date. The result of our DCF is close to the strike of the ORAs, i.e. €4.0 per share, which is intuitively consistent.
Courbet SA. Courbet SA, formerly Societe Anonyme Courbet, is a France-based company engaged in investments in industrial and commercial undertakings and asset management.
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