Report
Pierre-Yves Gauthier

Target upgrade by 19.2% (Ecoslops)

TARGET CHANGE

CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 24.3 vs 20.4 +19.2%
The upgrade allows for final 2017 figures which confirm that the Sines plant is in FCF mode and thus can be valued less as a project and more as a cash cow. Other units in the pipeline have been similary upgraded.

CHANGE IN EPS2018 : € 0.03 vs 0.05 -45.8%
2019 : € 0.23 vs -0.52 ns
2017 earnings have been more than breaking even which was not a given and provides a sound base for the following years. The upgrades to 2018 and 2019 reflect improving operating conditions as realisation prices for refined products are somewhat more attractive than nine months ago. The rise in inputs (slops) does not offset these realisation gains.

CHANGE IN NAV€ 31.9 vs 20.1 +58.8%
The NAV computation is now based on the 2020 EBITDA for Sines and time-adjusted similar multiples for other refining units as they are gradually fired up. We have allowed for a cautious valuation for smaller "refinery in a box" Mini P2Rs soon to be tested.

CHANGE IN DCF€ 26.1 vs 29.0 -9.93%
The DCF has been revised to only allow for projects currently in the pipeline.
Underlying
Ecoslops SA

Ecoslops SA. Ecoslops SA is a France-based company principally engaged in the converting pertroleum residues from shipping (slops and sludge) in new marine fuels recycled. The Company offers seaports, residues collectors, ship-owners and bunker suppliers with a technology to recycle oily waste of ships. Ecoslops SA is active in promoting the development of the P2R unit by its incorporation in a more global plant: Oil Waste Processing Plant (OW2P). The OW2P technology combines a refining petroleum process (P2R) with appropriate clean water. The Company recycles the waste in order to be used in electricity production and steam production among others. The Company's fuel production is located in the port of Sines, Portugal.

Provider
AlphaValue Corporate Services
AlphaValue Corporate Services

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Analysts
Pierre-Yves Gauthier

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