Factoring in the dilution from CSG and a deterioration in the 2023 performance (Gaussin)
Factoring in the dilution from CSG and a deterioration in the 2023 performanceOPINION CHANGE
CHANGE IN OPINION Reduce vs Buy
CHANGE IN EPS
2023 : € (0.02) vs 0.03 ns
2024 : € 0.05 vs 0.11 -55.4%
We have trimmed our EPS estimates after the group withdrew its sales guidance. With sales now expected to be lower than €100, we believe that there is a threat to licensing revenues, which directly add to profits. Additionally, vehicle sales could also be impacted, which would lead to under-absorption of costs and further reduce profits. Lastly, we take into account the potential dilution from existing shares by the issue of 25m additional shares from the loans given to the company by CSG which will increase the share count from 37m to 62m shares.
CHANGE IN NAV € 1.45 vs 5.30 -72.7%
For the NAV calculation, we have cut our multiples for the licensing and the Service business. Moreover, we have also cut our anticipated sales figures used to derive the valuation of the Vehicles and Licensing businesses. Finally, our NAV also takes on board the impact of the potential dilution looming over the company.
CHANGE IN DCF € 1.23 vs 4.45 -72.4%
Our DCF valuation is impacted by the increased share count as well as the reduction in our short-term forecasts for the group. We now expect profitability to be lower in 2024 and 2025, and believe that the group will need to revamp its strategy to become profitable on a sustainable basis.
AlphaValue Corporate Services capitalise on the research and credit analysis expertise deployed by AlphaValue with major institutional investors at European level over the past nine years. The proprietary tools and processes enabling AlphaValue Corporate Services to establish a valuation and/or a credit risk assessment are identical to those used by AlphaValue to the benefit of its institutional clients. The only difference is the recognition that a company evaluation cannot be dissociated from the fact that the latter is paying for the service (AlphaValue Corporate Services), as opposed to the investor footing the bill (AlphaValue). AlphaValue’s research tools are characterised by the transparency of the valuation methodologies, their responsiveness to market data and by nine years’ experience of a universe numbering more than 450 European companies. Through its coverage and sector exhaustiveness, AlphaValue ranks alongside the major research houses in Europe and constitutes the only new entrant to the European space in the past decade. This significant presence is reflected in an unrivalled distribution capability via platforms commonly adopted by investors to access research: Factset, Bloomberg, Capital IQ and the numerous websites. AlphaValue is one the largest research contributors to these platforms, to the benefit of AlphaValue Corporate Services issuer clients. The AlphaValue Corporate Services analysts are AlphaValue’s sector specialists. Their robust knowledge of the business models in their sectors enables the rapid generation of incisive, relevant research and advantageous interaction with the management teams.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.