Report

Target cut by -13.9% (SFPI Group)

TARGET CHANGE

CHANGE IN EPS2019 : € 0.21 vs 0.23 -6.28%
2020 : € 0.23 vs 0.26 -9.82%
As a result of the negative surprise in FY18, we have reduced our EPS forecasts for FY19 onwards since we now take a more cautious view on the recovery: +25bp increase in the EBIT margin per year vs previously a +50bp increase in the EBIT margin per year. Automatically, this has a stronger impact on FY20 (-50bp impact on EBIT margin) than on FY19 (25bp impact on the EBIT margin). This change alone explains most of the change in our EPS.

CHANGE IN NAV€ 4.06 vs 4.42 -8.22%
We have lowered the reference multiples as we have reviewed our assumptions on the improvement in the EBIT margin from 50bp per year to 25bp. Note that we have not changed the multiples for each division with the exception of DOM security, which has seen its multiple decrease from 11x to 10x.

CHANGE IN DCF€ 4.12 vs 4.55 -9.48%
The lower expected EBIT than previously forecasted explains most of the decrease in our DCF. We have left the 2022-29 growth forecasts as well as the capex forecasts unchanged, which are the two most important parameters in a DCF valuation.
Underlying
Groupe SFPI SA

Groupe SFPI SA. Groupe SFPI SA is a group of manufacturing companies based in France. Each company of the Group designs, produces and distributes equipment for the construction and manufacturing industries. The Group divides its business activities into two main segments: Construction and Manufacturing. The Construction segment focuses on the supply of equipment, convenience, security and energy efficiency to a number of access points, which includes joinery, shutters, industrial closures, locks, sophisticated access security systems, monitoring systems and alarms, among others. The Manufacturing segment focuses on heat exchanges, sterilizers, air conditioning units, pneumatic transport and dust extraction systems.

Provider
AlphaValue Corporate Services
AlphaValue Corporate Services

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Analysts
Felix Brunotte

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