Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 13 - Resell USD on key reversal day down, despite looking better than the EU. NFIB data was weak, but JOLTS strong. Equities up on trade deadline extension.

Macro: US: JOLTS data showed a positive labour market environment in the US last night, but the leading NFIB survey of small business outlined potential weakness down the pipe. This divergence between lagging labour and leading data continues to play out, both preventing real strength and weakness at the same time in US data outcomes.

Summary: Markets reacted well to news that tariff imposition dates may be pushed back to allow more time for the US & China to reach a deal. JOLTS data in the US hit a new record high, but the NFIB small business optimism index fell sharply, perhaps in response to US political woes and slowing global growth data. The USD fell, posting a bearish daily reversal, implying further losses to come. Commodities were mixed.

New trades: Resell USD Index at 96.70 risk 97.20.
FX: Short AUD .7170 risk .72 target sub .70. Sold USD Index at 96.40 risk 97 target 94.
BONDS: Long 2 units ASX Banks 5yr CDS at 54bps, target 140. Long NZ 10s sold NZ 2s at 104bps risk 130bps target 50bps. Sold Portugal 10yr bought German Bund at 158bps, risk 110bps target 350bps. Sold HYG at 84.81 risk 85.25 target 79.
EQUITIES: Long ASX All Ordinaries Top 100, Short ASX Small Ordinaries at 0.81x ratio. Sold Transports 10198 risk 10500 target 8500. Bought March VIX 17.42%. Sold ASX200 at 6060 risk 6110 target 5600.
COMMODITIES. Long Silver short Gold at 83.9x risk 87 target 65. Sold Copper at 2.83 risk 2.90 target 2.50. Bought Gold at 1314 risk 1304 target 1350. Bought Silver at 15.82 risk 15.64 target 17.