reports
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 19 - The next phase of the...
Today’s themes: Today we build on yesterday’s 4 daily themes – slowing data & EPS cycles, policy maker responses, whether US data closes the gap to EU and US curve flattening via the Fed collar – with three related themes. The first is that we are again seeing the first signs of policy responses from the ECB to weaker EU data (which is about time, because many EU nations are in or near recession!). The implications of these responses are key, because they will dictate EU asset trajectories, and ...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 14 - Weak EU IP and a bett...
Summary: Markets passed time near this weeks highs last night, with slightly stronger US CPI data and some less than dovish commentary from the Fed’s Harker suggesting that 1 or 2 further hikes might be in order. The Fed’s Bostic argued that the Fed could take their time. That plus very weak EU IP data (-4.7%) saw the USD rise and the EUR fall. This sank commodities and precious metals prices. New trades: Long USD Index at 96.70 stopped again at 97.20 (-0.5%). FX: Short AUD .7170 risk .72 t...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 13 - Resell USD on key rev...
Macro: US: JOLTS data showed a positive labour market environment in the US last night, but the leading NFIB survey of small business outlined potential weakness down the pipe. This divergence between lagging labour and leading data continues to play out, both preventing real strength and weakness at the same time in US data outcomes. Summary: Markets reacted well to news that tariff imposition dates may be pushed back to allow more time for the US & China to reach a deal. JOLTS data in the US ...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 12 - Stocks will find it h...
Macro: Global: More weak UK data, falling Q1 US fwd EPS estimates, more weak data out of AU & NZ. The theme of slowing global growth continues. Summary: Markets opened strongly last night with EU & US indices up, however gains faded as the session wore on. Small caps outperformed tech and the S&P in the US, while UK gains faded due to weaker/falling UK GDP, IP and Manuf production data. The USD was stronger by default, which weighed on precious and base metals. US yields edged higher. Trade tar...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 11 - Growth assets have ra...
Today’s themes: Last Thursday should have produced a peak in global stocks, commodities and HY bonds, and should have ended the 7 week run higher from late Dec lows. All major growth assets are at risk of either a significant 50-61.8% retracement of that 7 week rally, or at worst a retreat back to new lows below those of Dec. It appears that building growth pessimism, the absence of a trade tariff deal with China along with a new “tariff front†against EU auto exports, and threats this pos...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 8 - Global growth and infl...
Today’s themes: Back to global markets and risk appetite today. Stocks, commodities and HY bonds all peaked last night and should have ended the 7 week run higher. Significant retracement risks now are likely. Sell stocks, Copper and HY bonds. Buy the VIX. Summary: reversed course last night as we expected, with concern around global growth and inflation cycles and US and global earnings weighing. The Bank of India cut rates, the BOE & ECB slashed inflation forecasts by 0.5-0.6%, signalling t...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 7 - The NZ U/E rate cycle ...
Macro: RBA/RBNZ: Well, it took a while, but central banks are coming around to our view of the AU & NZ macro economies, and what that outlook means for cash rates, FX rates and yields in both nations. If the AU & NZ ec0on0omies unfold as we expect, and weaken further, then the RBA outlined that doing so would warrant rate cuts. The key will be rising unemployment rates, which we expect to now unfold in H1. In NZ, unemployment rates are now rising, and 3.9% looks like the cycle unemployment rate ...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 5 - US stocks pushing high...
Macro: RBA today: The last 3 weeks of AU macro data has been roundly weak. Business confidence is collapsing, building investment and prices are off substantially and job ads growth has now slowed and is falling. This says growth and inflation will slow, consumption will soften even further, and soon employment growth will slow to a crawl. This is not the environment in which the RBA has a hiking bias. Expect them (today) to move back to neutral and remove commentary that the next move in rates ...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 4 - Stronger US jobs and m...
Macro: US data: US jobs and manuf data were strong Friday, rounding out a week of conflicting cross currents and themes, but ending it with rising US yields and a rising USD, which perhaps dented precious metals and commodities recent gains and dented stocks upside progress too, even if without altering the upward trend established post Fed. Summary: Markets Friday couldn’t make up their minds in regards to whether stronger US employment (300k+), modest wages growth (0.1% mom) and a higher un...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 1 - What a difference a da...
Macro: Global data: Despite a positive approach from the US Fed on rates and their balance sheet which has helped stocks gain a further 1% today into the close, last night reminded markets why they were right to worry in the first place. Perhaps most noticeable last night though were the substantial falls in bond yields in response to globally weak data, but particularly in the US where markets repriced from 6bps of cuts by Jan 2020 to 13bps this morning. That is a big shift in perceptions on US...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 31 - Powell Fed delivers d...
Macro: Fed: Fed Chair Powell was able to deftly sidestep questioning around the potential for future rate hikes, focussing instead on the notion that policy is appropriate for now, and that the case for rate hikes has weakened. In addition, his commentary around balance sheet usage in response to macro conditions, and that it and reserves in the system will remain larger than otherwise expected have supported stocks and weakened the USD sharply. These trends should extend. Summary: Growth asset...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 30 - US consumer confidenc...
Today’s themes: Not a lot of new price action moves last night, as markets await the Fed tonight. In terms of data, the only (but important) piece of data was the sharp fall in the Conf Board consumer sentiment data. Tonight the key is what the Fed will not only confirm from their prior messaging (that they are on hold, likely for 6mths), but whether they plan for any further hikes down the track, or whether this is the peak in the FF rate. Also, whether they change balance sheet end size or m...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 29 - The 3 downgrade cycle...
Price action: Stock technicals: US stocks are tussling with 50/200 day average resistances, and last night EM stocks failed at their 200 days as well. Our sense is that stocks need to invalidate previously bearish technical signals in order to dispel any chance of a retest of the lows. Until they do, retracement risks are high to the downside still. They just need a fundamental catalyst to get going (or not). Macro: Data slowing: Global leading indicators continue to slow. Net export components...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 25 - Markets limp into the...
Macro: PMI slowing, trade talk delays, US shutdowns, dovish ECB: Lots of differing themes last night in operation, but with relatively little impact on markets. Stocks closed flat but oscillated, US yields fell 4bps and the USD rebounded, in part and substantially due to a dovish ECB Pres. The macro picture remains cloudy, as further falls in the PMI data out of the US & EU indicated, but so far that isn’t “new news†and hasn’t been enough to push stocks substantially lower yet. Comments...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 24 - Canadian rates market...
USD & Commodities: The USD is looking like it has again made a ST peak after 2 weeks of upside trade, without any real data or commentary to validate that though. This is supporting precious metals. The demand outlook for Oil is weakening and inventories again surprised on the topside last night. Macro: Canada: How can an economy recording near zero retail sales growth, and about to experience Oil related headwinds, be one where markets and the central bank still expect to hike rates? Our sense...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 23 - Stocks have marked an...
Technicals: US stocks: The 12-14% rebound in US stocks looks like it is over, with failure and reversals from within 50/200 day averages. As we outlined yesterday, only a rise back through 200 day averages and new highs above those seen on the Nov rally will see stocks regain the technical initiative. For now a more negative outlook is required into next week as long as this week’s highs are not breached, with a 4-5% minimum correction lower likely. Equities: EM stocks: Our chart look today n...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 22 - While stocks have reb...
Technicals: US stocks: A very solid rebound from the lows of now 12-14% has US stocks trying to retest their 50/200 day averages. Only a rise back through 200 day averages and new highs above those seen on the Nov rally will see stocks regain the technical initiative. For now they remain with hurdles ahead. This outlook is shared by most major markets we follow. Summary: Stock & bond markets in the US were closed for the Martin Luther King holiday, but futures are pointing to modest losses when...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 21 - S&P testing moving av...
Today’s themes: We wanted to build on some of the themes from Friday’s report on our Recession Matrix ST recession probabilities for the US today, with some further work from the Fed in that regard. Our technical look at US stocks shows that stocks are now tussling with their key averages, and while US data is softening generally there remain patches of strength as Fridays manufacturing and industrial production data imply. US earnings growth estimates remain half decent at just above 6% for...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 18 - Despite rising LT rec...
Macro: US Recession Odds: We’ve used our Recession Matrix for the last 6 years to time the strength and turning points in the US cycle. Over that period it has been extremely helpful to us in a) staying long risk assets in the mid to late cycle phase, then b) trading the twists and turns in risk appetite over the last 4 years since late 2014. As the US cycle matures, recession probabilities are rising across most models, however we also employ a short term recession indicator to ascertain whet...
- Craig Ferguson
Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 17 - Long positioning, inc...
Price action: Precious metals: Gold & Silver have traded a narrow range now for nearly 2 weeks, consolidating near their highs. Our sense is that both are set to breakout, but so far lack a clear catalyst in weaker stocks or USD for doing so. Price action: AUD & NZD: The FX markets recent outperformers became the underperformers last night, with AUD down 0.5% or more, and NZD down by nearly 1% at its low. Three things appear to be weighing. Firstly, short positions have largely been unwound and...
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