Antipodean provides top down global macro style research covering all major geographies, asset classes and economies. Our research is a combination of fundamental (fiscal, monetary, political, economic) and technical (charts, positioning) and we provide portfolio's of trades tracked quarterly across all assets.
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Today’s themes: Today we build on yesterday’s 4 daily themes – slowing data & EPS cycles, policy maker responses, whether US data closes the gap to EU and US curve flattening via the Fed collar – with three related themes. The first is that we are again seeing the first signs of policy responses from the ECB to weaker EU data (which is about time, because many EU nations are in or near recession!). The implications of these responses are key, because they will dictate EU asset trajectories, and ...
Summary: Markets passed time near this weeks highs last night, with slightly stronger US CPI data and some less than dovish commentary from the Fed’s Harker suggesting that 1 or 2 further hikes might be in order. The Fed’s Bostic argued that the Fed could take their time. That plus very weak EU IP data (-4.7%) saw the USD rise and the EUR fall. This sank commodities and precious metals prices. New trades: Long USD Index at 96.70 stopped again at 97.20 (-0.5%). FX: Short AUD .7170 risk .72 t...
Macro: US: JOLTS data showed a positive labour market environment in the US last night, but the leading NFIB survey of small business outlined potential weakness down the pipe. This divergence between lagging labour and leading data continues to play out, both preventing real strength and weakness at the same time in US data outcomes. Summary: Markets reacted well to news that tariff imposition dates may be pushed back to allow more time for the US & China to reach a deal. JOLTS data in the US ...
Macro: Global: More weak UK data, falling Q1 US fwd EPS estimates, more weak data out of AU & NZ. The theme of slowing global growth continues. Summary: Markets opened strongly last night with EU & US indices up, however gains faded as the session wore on. Small caps outperformed tech and the S&P in the US, while UK gains faded due to weaker/falling UK GDP, IP and Manuf production data. The USD was stronger by default, which weighed on precious and base metals. US yields edged higher. Trade tar...
Today’s themes: Last Thursday should have produced a peak in global stocks, commodities and HY bonds, and should have ended the 7 week run higher from late Dec lows. All major growth assets are at risk of either a significant 50-61.8% retracement of that 7 week rally, or at worst a retreat back to new lows below those of Dec. It appears that building growth pessimism, the absence of a trade tariff deal with China along with a new “tariff front†against EU auto exports, and threats this pos...
