Balance of Trade Remains in the Surplus Zone amid Domestic Woes
The NBS recently released the Foreign Trade in Goods statistics for Q1:2023. Total Trade grew by 2.77% QoQ to print at NGN12.05trn compared to NGN11.72trn in Q4:2022. However, on a year-on-year basis, it contracted by 17.47% in Q1:2023 (vs. NGN14.60trn in Q1:2022). Total Exports grew marginally by 2.00% QoQ to NGN6.49trn in Q1:2023 (vs NGN6.36trn in Q4:2022). Likewise, Total Imports increased by 3.67% QoQ to NGN5.56trn in Q1:2023 (vs NGN5.36trn in Q4:2022). Overall, Balance of Trade remained in the surplus zone, albeit at a lower value of NGN927.16bn in Q1:2023 (vs. NGN996.78bn in Q4:2022).
Considering the recent series of events in the country, including the transition into a new administration and the recovery of economic activities from cash crunch and election activities, we expect the Balance of Trade figures for Q2:2023 to continue to show a surplus. For non-oil exports, we predict a slight increase during Q2:2023, driven by the improved economic activities indicated by the PMI figures for April (53.8pts) and May (54.0pts). However, we foresee a moderate decline in crude oil exports due to the moderation in oil production for April (1.25MMbpd) and May (1.43MMbpd) compared to Q1:2023. Overall, we anticipate a modest growth in total imports in Q2:2023 compared to Q1:2023
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