Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc. 9M:2025 Earnings Note | Turning the Corner
Dangote Sugar (DANGSUGAR) posted a notable 9M:2025 recovery, with revenues rising 29.3% YoY to NGN626.24bn and gross profit margin improving to 14.38% (vs. 4.09% in 9M:2024), supported by strong volume growth across 50kg sugar, molasses, and retail segments. Furthermore, FX stability helped compress finance costs by 68.5% YoY to NGN92.25bn, despite higher interest on commercial papers. However, aggressive debt repayments led to a decline in cash to NGN79.88bn, but still kept debt-to-equity ratio elevated at 3.71x.Looking ahead, we expect the company to sustain earnings momentum into Q4:2025, with full-year profit projected at NGN421.09bn. While dividends may remain constrained until retained earnings turn positive, the operating and financial improvements signal that DANGSUGAR is firmly turning the corner. Hence, we assign an OVERWEIGHT rating and revise our 12-month target price to NGN66.48 (previously NGN30.42), implying an 18.92% upside from the current price of NGN55.90 as of November 25th, 2025.
ARM Securities Limited is a full-service brokerage house that offers best-in-class brokerage services to local as well as foreign private and institutional investors. Formerly known as Hamilton Hammer, the Company commenced operation in 1994 and was acquired by ARM Investment Managers in 2008--an acquisition which has successfully re-positioned the company as a recognized brokerage firm in Nigeria. The Company is a dealing member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). ARM Securities research team provides insightful commentaries on the Nigerian economy and its equity and debt markets using an approach which incorporates a thorough understanding of the fundamentals of the industries and companies under coverage. The research therefore adopts an integrated methodology of top-down analysis and bottom-up stock selection, which focuses on publicly quoted companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange that are judged to offer the highest potential for earnings growth. In addition, its analysts provide periodic commentaries on a range of topical global and local issues which provide investing clients with a holistic view of the opportunities and risks in today’s financial market landscape.
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