February 2022 CPI Report: Headline Inflation Resumes Uptrend
- Headline inflation rose (+10bps) to 15.70% YoY in February 2022 from 15.60% in January. The acceleration of growth in prices is largely due to a swift 14.01% YoY (13.87% in January) rise in core inflation. The sharp increase is largely buoyed by rise in HWEGF* (+0.40% YoY) and Clothing and Footwear (+0.30% YoY) which accounts for 47.5% of the index. On the other hand, Food inflation tapered for the second consecutive month (-2bps) to 17.11% YoY in February from 17.13% in January 2022 due to slower growth in price of processed foods.
- For 2022, we maintain our base case expectation of 14.1% average inflation rate barring significant adjustments in exchange rate and encumbrance in the food supply chain. Nigeria Metrological Agency (NiMeT) already predicted an early onset and cessation of rainfall in 2022 resulting in dry spells of varying severity across the different regions of the country. This may severely hamper planting and harvest season and hurt food prices in the year.
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