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Q1:2024 Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics |Weaker Naira Boosts Balance of Trade by 79% QoQ

In the recently published report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showing the country’s Foreign Trade in Goods statistics for Q1:2024, we observed that Balance of trade settled in a surplus of NGN6.52trn, representing a 79.24% QoQ increase from Q4:2023’s NGN3.64trn surplus position. We believe that this corresponds with a 51.60% excess of Total Exports over Total Imports in Q1:2024. Specifically, Total exports posted a 51.00% QoQ increase to NGN19.17trn in Q1:2024 (vs. NGN12.69trn in Q4:2023), while Total Imports increased by 39.65% QoQ to NGN12.64trn (vs. NGN9.05trn in Q4:2023). Overall, Total Trade jumped by 46.27% QoQ to NGN31.81trn in Q1:2024, compared to NGN21.75trn in Q4:2023.

We are optimistic that the Balance of Trade will remain in surplus, given the commencement of refining activities at the Port-Harcourt and Dangote Refineries, which are poised to boost the country’s oil exports. Furthermore, the persistent weakness of the Naira is expected to improve proceeds from both oil and non-oil exports, hence, supporting a balance of trade surplus in Q2:2024.

Provider
ARM Securities Limited
ARM Securities Limited

ARM Securities Limited is a full-service brokerage house that offers best-in-class brokerage services to local as well as foreign private and institutional investors. Formerly known as Hamilton Hammer, the Company commenced operation in 1994 and was acquired by ARM Investment Managers in 2008--an acquisition which has successfully re-positioned the company as a recognized brokerage firm in Nigeria. The Company is a dealing member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). ARM Securities research team provides insightful commentaries on the Nigerian economy and its equity and debt markets using an approach which incorporates a thorough understanding of the fundamentals of the industries and companies under coverage. The research therefore adopts an integrated methodology of top-down analysis and bottom-up stock selection, which focuses on publicly quoted companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange that are judged to offer the highest potential for earnings growth. In addition, its analysts provide periodic commentaries on a range of topical global and local issues which provide investing clients with a holistic view of the opportunities and risks in today’s financial market landscape. ​

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