The Pentad – Urban Retail Price Tracker November 2017
In this edition of The Pentad – Urban Retail Price Tracker (PURP), we expand our coverage of products in the brewery basket to include Trophy Lager, a leading value beer predominantly consumed in South-West Nigeria and which is produced by International Breweries Plc. (INTBREW). In view of this addition, our representative basket in the brewery segment now includes Star, Gulder, Malta Guinness, Goldberg, Trophy, Satzenbrau, and Guinness stout. We have retained the composition of the other segments.
In the month of October, our channel checks showed a modest pace of price increases (0.79% MoM to 101.2 ppts vs. 0.86% MoM in September) across most segments on the back of benign cost pressures, higher competition from imports as well as intense industry competition. In addition, we note that sales volumes climbed higher underpinned by festive-induced demand as well as the end of the rainy season.
Key summary of outcomes
- The PURP index stood at 101.2 index points in October 2017, indicating a 0.79% MoM increase in urban retail prices relative to 0.86% MoM increase in the prior month.
- Results from our survey showed a 0.3% decline in retail prices in the first and second week of October followed by a cumulative 1.1% increase in the third and fourth week of the month.
- Price volatility in the commodities basket accelerated in October unlike the prior month wherein price movement was soft. Elsewhere, the consumer basket witnessed the least volatility in prices over the review period.
- In our view, the cool-off in price pressures reflects benign input cost pressure and higher competition from imports against the backdrop of improved FX liquidity.
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