DRX: Increasing Target Price on $140M in New Contracts
What you need to know:• ADF announced $140M in new contracts across Quebec, Ontario, and the U.S. West Coast, diversified amongst various industries including public transportation, commercial, industrial, manufacturing, and hydroelectricity.
• Fabrication is expected to begin in June 2026 and extend through 2027.
• Today’s announcement builds further credibility and trust with management as they stated new contracts would be coming during their Q3 conference call. Additionally, these contracts tell us that the integration of LAR is going well, setting up the Company for sustainable growth going forward.
This morning, ADF Group (DRX:TSX) announced $140.0M of new contract awards across Quebec, Ontario, and the U.S. West Coast, spanning public transportation, commercial, industrial, manufacturing, and hydroelectric end markets. The awards leverage ADF’s core fabrication and installation expertise and are tied to new-build projects with varying structural complexity. With fabrication set to begin in June 2026 and the majority of work extending through the end of 2027, the timing supports strong multi-year revenue visibility. On a pro forma basis, these awards lift ADF’s order backlog to $637.1M, up from the last reported $497.1M as of October 31st, 2025, solidifying continued demand entering FY27E. We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing our target price to $13.00/share (previously $12.00/share) on ADF Group.
When the Company reported Q3 results in early December, management noted that Groupe LAR was already making a meaningful contribution to backlog growth, reflecting a well-executed integration following the September 2025 acquisition. Early progress is evident in ADF’s ability to allocate work across its Terrebonne (Quebec) and Great Falls (Montana) facilities alongside Groupe LAR’s Métabetchouan (Quebec) plant, enhancing operational flexibility and overall capacity utilization. We have increased our estimates for FY27 (ending Jan 31st) to conservatively include $64M in additional revenue, with the remainder being in FY28. This increases our FY27E EBITDA estimate to $84.1M (from $76.4M), assuming slightly lower margins due to LAR getting integrated up to standard.
ADF Group is engaged in the design and engineering of connections, fabrication and installation of complex steel superstructures, heavy steel built-ups, as well as architectural and miscellaneous metalwork for the five principal segments of the non-residential construction market namely, office towers and high-rises, commercial and recreational buildings, airport facilities, industrial complexes and nuclear facilities, and transport infrastructures.
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