reports
- Ben Pirie
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
Q1/25 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!
Quarterly Coverage Update Q1/25 represented another excellent quarter for our firm, with strong performance from our coverage universe. This mainly came from our exposure to precious metals, notably silver. Our coverage universe was up 13% during the quarter and 40% over the last year, compared to the TSX, which was up 0.1% and 12%, respectively. The performance in Q1 was led by Santacruz Silver (+80%), Omai Gold Mines (+80%), and Tocvan Ventures (+67%). We also proudly hosted another Investor ...
DRX ADF GROUP INC.
ARG. AMERIGO RESOURCES LTD.
EDG. ENDURANCE GOLD
SCZ. SANTACRUZ SILVER MINING
NIM NICOLA MINING INC
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
KNR. KONTROL ENERGY CORP
GIGA GIGA METALS
TOC TOCVAN VENTURES
APM ANDEAN PRECIOUS METALS CORP
PNTZF TRIGON METALS INC.
OMG OMAI GOLD MINES CORP
BQE BQE WATER INC.
DNG DYNACOR GROUP INC.
MOO MOON RIVER MOLY LTD
AUAU ALLEGIANT GOLD
FISH SAILFISH ROYALTY CORP.
CAPT CAPITAN SILVER CORP
SBIO SABIO HOLDINGS
INC. (SBIO)
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Back at It Again; $120M in New Contracts Signed
What you need to know: • ADF Group announced that it has signed $120M in new contracts across Quebec and the U.S., resulting in the pro-forma backlog reaching $450M. • Despite the concerns about tariffs, management was able to execute on its plan to sign new contracts, setting up the Company for a strong 2025. • Since announcing its NCIB, ADF has repurchased 721K shares, representing 2.4% of its shares outstanding. • ADF continues to trade at only 2.6x/3.0x FY25E/FY26E EBITDA. This morning, ADF...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
Finding the Next Takeout in Canadian Small-Caps - Part Four
What you need to know: • Since our last note in September, there have been 11 new takeouts in Canadian small-caps. This has accelerated in recent weeks with the acquisitions of Softchoice, Quisitive, and Carebook. • Our potential takeouts portfolio is up 61% since inception (November 2023) and 13% since our last note, compared to the TSX up 28% and 9% respectively. We review the biggest winners and losers in the portfolio and present a list of new ideas on our radar. How Have Things Progressed?...
GCL COLABOR GROUP INC
COV. COVALON TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
CTX CRESCITA THERAPEUTICS
E ENTERPRISE GROUP
FTG FIRAN TECHNOLOGY GROUP CORP.
IFX IMAFLEX INC. CL A
MAL MAGELLAN AEROSPACE CORP.
SYZ SYLOGIST LTD.
VLN VELAN INC.
KUT REDISHRED CAPITAL CORP.
GSI. GATEKEEPER SYSTEMS INC
OSS ONE STOP SYSTEMS
QIS CN QUORUM INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES INC
NPTH NEUPATH HEALTH
XYBN XYBION DIGITAL INC
GRID TANTALUS SYSTEMS HLDG INC
HAI HAIVISION SYSTEMS INC
CNG KRAKEN ROBOTICS INC
BQE BQE WATER INC.
- Ben Pirie
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
Q4/24 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!
Quarterly Coverage Update As we close out the year, we are pleased to release our Q4/24 recap report, showcasing all the research content we have published over the past three months. This quarter, we introduced short-form company overviews, sharing them across our new TikTok page as well as LinkedIn, YouTube, and X (Twitter) to provide a brief introduction to some of our covered companies. We also proudly hosted Atrium Research’s inaugural Mining Investor Event, which brought together clients,...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Solid Q3 Financials; Margins Remain Strong
What you need to know: • ADF reported Q3 financial results that were in line with our expectations on revenue and beat our expectations on EBITDA. • Revenue came in at $80.0M (-3% YoY) vs. our $80.4M and EBITDA came in at $24.0M (+35% YoY) vs. our $19.0M. • While the impact of the Trump victory and tariffs is still uncertain, management remains positive on its end markets and backlog. This morning, ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) reported Q3 financial results (ending October 31st) that were in...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Facility Visit & Updates; Staying Bullish
What you need to know: • Our team visited the Terrebonne facility earlier this week, where we toured the plant and met with management. • The Trump victory has mixed implications, with general support for infrastructure spending but potential to defund spending packages and implement tariffs on imported steel. Earlier this week, we had the pleasure of visiting ADF Group’s (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) Terrebonne facility. We summarize the takeaways from our visit as well as other updates from the sect...
- Ben Pirie
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
Q3/24 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!
Quarterly Coverage Update As we enter the final quarter of the year, we are excited to release our quarterly recap report to update our readers on all the research content we have published in the last three months. This quarter included substantial momentum across several sectors, with strong performance from the companies we cover. Omai Gold Mines (+55%) led the way, followed by Allegiant Gold (+27%), Moon River Moly (+11%), and BQE Water (+10%). This quarter has been our most active yet, ma...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: $55M in New Contracts Signed
What you need to know: • ADF announced $55M in new contracts across Quebec and the U.S. Midwest, including additional work for its U.S. pharmaceutical client. • Today’s announcement gives us further confidence that ADF can continue to grow the backlog as the infrastructure spending cycle prolongs. • ADF trades at 3.5x EBITDA, the lowest multiple we have seen since covering the stock and a major discount to its peers and precedent transactions. This morning, ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) ann...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Revenue Misses due to Delays but Margins Smash Expectations
What you need to know: • ADF reported mixed Q2 financials that missed our revenue estimate due project delays but largely beat our profitability estimates. • Revenue came in at $74.9M vs. our $92.6M (due to $35M in delays) while EBITDA came in at $24.9M (33% margin) vs. our estimate of $17.9M. • Management remained bullish on the long-term growth of the sector and ended the quarter in large net cash position. This morning, ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) reported Q2 financial results (ending Ju...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
Finding the Next Takeout in Canadian Small-Caps - Part Three
What you need to know: • Since our last note in May, there have been 10 additional takeouts in Canadian small-caps, most of which coming in a significant premiums. • The new acquisitions largely fit within the framework outlined in previous reports. • Our potential takeouts portfolio is up 43% since inception (November 2023) and 17% since our last note, compared to the TSX up 18% and 3% respectively. We review the biggest winners and losers in the portfolio and present a list of new ideas on ou...
GCL COLABOR GROUP INC
COV. COVALON TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
CTX CRESCITA THERAPEUTICS
E ENTERPRISE GROUP
IFX IMAFLEX INC. CL A
MAL MAGELLAN AEROSPACE CORP.
SYZ SYLOGIST LTD.
KUT REDISHRED CAPITAL CORP.
GSI. GATEKEEPER SYSTEMS INC
QIS CN QUORUM INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES INC
XYBN XYBION DIGITAL INC
GRID TANTALUS SYSTEMS HLDG INC
HAI HAIVISION SYSTEMS INC
CNG KRAKEN ROBOTICS INC
BQE BQE WATER INC.
OSS ONESOFT SOLUTIONS INC
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Addressing the Bears & Q2 Preview
What you need to know: • DRX stock is down 38% since reaching ATHs in June; we have aggregated some of the bearish points that we are hearing and provide our rebuttals as to why ADF will continue to be one of the best performing stocks on the TSX. • ADF Group will be reporting Q2/25 financials in early September, we are expecting revenue of $92.6M (+15% YoY) and EBITDA of $17.9M (19% margin, +41% YoY). ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) is down 35% since reaching highs of $20.50/share on the back ...
- Ben Pirie
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
Q2/24 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!
As we conclude Q2/24, we are excited to release our inaugural quarterly recap report to update our readers on all the research content we have published in the last three months. This period has been marked by dynamic performance across various sectors, with notable highlights in the companies we cover. The best performers from our coverage universe include, ADF Group (+74%), Trigon Metals (+39%), BQE Water (+29%), and Dynacor Group (+12%). The overall coverage demonstrated significant resilie...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Sizeable Beat on Q1 Financials & Returning Cash to Shareholders
What you need to know: • ADF Group reported Q1 financial results that largely beat our estimates, including revenue of $107.4M (+34% YoY) vs. $90.1M and EBITDA of $23.1M (+130% YoY) vs. $17.2M. • ADF announced a cash utilization strategy including its intention to repurchase up to 3.0M shares from insiders and the doubling of its semi-annual dividend to $0.02/share. ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) reported Q1 financial results today before market open that smashed our expectations across the boa...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Here We Go Again; Increasing TP on Contract Announcement
What you need to know: • ADF announced a series of new contracts totalling $90M spanning the pharmaceutical, industrial, and public infrastructure sectors. • This includes additional work awarded for the pharmaceutical project in the Midwest U.S. which ADF was recently awarded phase 2 for. • ADF will be reporting Q1/25 on June 11th, we are expecting $90.1M revenue (12% YoY), 23.5% gross margin, and $17.2M EBITDA (19% margin). This morning, ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) announced $90M of new c...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Another Quarter, Another Beat; Increasing Target Price
What you need to know: • ADF Group reported Q4 & FY24 financial results this morning that beat our expectations across the board. • For Q4, revenue came in at $88.4M (+72% YoY) vs. our estimate of $77.1M and EBITDA came in at $15.5M (+164% YoY) vs. our estimate of $13.6M. • FY24 marked another stellar year for ADF as it benefits from infrastructure spending across North America and the automation capex program at its Terrebonne facility. Management expects this cycle to extend 3-5 years. ADF Gr...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Q4 Financials Preview
What you need to know: • ADF Group will be reporting Q4 & FY24 financial results on April 11th before market open. • For Q4, we are expecting revenue of $77.1M (+50% YoY), gross margin of 22% (vs. 18% last year), and adjusted EBITDA of $13.6M (+132% YoY). • We view the recent pullback in DRX stock as a major buying opportunity ahead of another record year ahead while valuation remains cheap at 4.5x FY25E EBITDA. ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) announced that it will be reporting Q4 & FY24 financ...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Increasing Target Price on Improved Outlook
What you need to know: • We are revisiting the assumptions in our model for ADF following strong industry data and positive conversations with management. • We are increasing our revenue and profitability estimates from Q4 onward to reflect the more bullish outlook. • We have increased our target multiple to 6.5x FY25 EBITDA (previously 6.0x), leading to a new $13.00/share target price (previously $10.00/share). • Watch our recently published management interview here. We are revisiting our m...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: New Contracts Announced; Increasing Target Price (Again)
What you need to know: • ADF announced the signing of a series of new contracts totalling $234M, adding to its backlog of $339M reported for Q3. • This demonstrates ADF’s increased throughput and ability to take on larger projects due to its automation equipment and working capital position. • We are increasing our target to $10.00/share based on increased estimates. This morning, ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) announced the signing of a series of new orders totalling $234M. We view the relea...
- Nicholas Cortellucci
- CFA
DRX: Q3 Financials Smash Expectations; Increasing Target Price
What you need to know: • ADF reported stellar Q3 financials that largely beat our estimates. Once again, the robotic fabrication line led the major improvements. • Revenue came in at $82.1M (+26% YoY) vs. our estimate of $73.0M and EBITDA came in at $17.8M (+146% YoY) vs. our estimate of $7.7M. • ADF continues to only trade at 3.6x FY24E EBITDA and 1.1x BV. This morning, ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) reported Q3/24 financial results that largely beat our estimates across the board. The beat wa...
Adf Group Inc: 1 director
A director at Adf Group Inc maiden bought 20,000 shares at 4.997CAD and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
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