ARG: Increasing Target Price on Strong Execution
What you need to know:• Amerigo reported Q4 and 2025 financial results, generating revenue of $79.8M (+57% YoY) and $227.3M (+18% YoY) vs. our expectation of $70.2M and $217.7M, respectively.
• EBITDA was $38.1M vs. our $30.1M estimate in Q4 and $89.9M (+31% YoY) in 2025. OCF was $24.6M in Q4 and $60.5M in 2025.
• Amerigo ended the year with $40.3M in cash and zero debt, returning $20.4M to shareholders and repaying $11.5M in debt in 2025, positioning ARG to continue executing its CRS amid rising copper prices.
This morning, Amerigo Resources (ARG:TSX, ARREF:OTC) reported its Q4 and 2025 financial results, which were highly impressive as the Company took advantage of rising copper prices. As previously reported, ARG produced 62.2Mlbs of copper in 2025 and 18.9Mlbs in the quarter, resulting in a revenue of $227.3M and $79.8M, respectively. EBITDA came in at $89.8M for the year and $38.1M in Q4. The elevated copper prices in Q4 allowed ARG to fully execute its Capital Return Strategy (CRS), having increased its quarterly dividend and executed its second-ever performance dividend. With copper prices continuing to rise in Q1/26, we estimate the Company will continue to show its elite business model and leverage to rising commodity prices. We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing our target price to C$7.25/share (previously C$6.50) on ARG.
Q4 & 2025 Financial Highlights
• Copper produced came in at 62.2Mlbs (-4% YoY) for the year and 18.9Mlbs for the quarter (+3% YoY).
• Revenue for 2025 was $227.3M compared to our expectation of $217.7M, representing 18% YoY growth, whereas revenue for Q4 came in at $79.8M (+57% YoY) vs. our expectations of $70.2M. The realized copper price for the year was $4.73/lb vs. $4.15/lb in 2024.
• Gross margin came in at 30% for the year and 41% for the quarter, compared to our estimate of 27% and the 34%, respectively.
• EBITDA for the year came in at $89.8M (40% margin) compared to our estimate of $81.8M and $68.8M in 2024. EBITDA for the quarter was $38.1M (48% margin). Cash costs came in at $1.93/lb, and AISC came in at $4.02/lb, compared to $1.89/lb and $3.73/lb in 2024, respectively.
• OCF (before working capital) came in at $60.5M (27% of revenue) for the year, compared to our estimate of $58.4M and $47.1M in 2024. OCF for Q4 was $24.6M compared to our estimate of $22.5M.
• Capex was $11.9M (vs. $12.5M expected) for the year, leading to 2025 FCFF of $48.6M compared to $37.8M in 2024. FCFF for the quarter was $22.2M.
• Amerigo returned $20.4M to shareholders and repaid $11.5M in debt in 2025.
• ARG ended the quarter with $40.3M in cash and zero debt. x
Amerigo Resources is engaged in the production of copper and molybdenum concentrates with operations in Chile. Through its subsidiary, Minera Valle Central S.A., Co. has a contract with Chile's state-owned copper producer National Copper Corporation to process the tailings from El Teniente underground copper mine.
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