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• Andean reported Q1 financial results that came in well above our expectations. The beat was driven by the higher metals prices and lower than expected costs at both assets.
• Revenue was $62.0M (+44% YoY) vs. our estimate of $53.6M. OCF came in at $7.0M vs. our estimate of ($1.2M).
• APM is up 68% YTD, yet still only trades at 3.1x 2025E CF. We remain highly bullish on the stock and are increasing our target price.
Yesterday evening, Andean Precious Metals (APM:TSX, ANPMF:OTC) reported Q1 financial results that were largely ahead of our expectations. Production results were pre-released on April 15th, coming in slightly lower than our expectations (read our note here), but the increased gold price and low costs shined in yesterday’s release. We remind readers that Q1 is seasonally weaker for APM and we expect sequentially improved results through the year. Last week, Andean announced its plans for exploration in 2025 including 4,267m, with results expected in H2. We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing our target price to C$3.75/share (prev. C$3.50/share) on APM.
Financial Highlights
• Q1 revenue of $62.0M (+44% YoY) vs. our $53.6M. The beat was driven by the higher gold and silver prices when compared to our model.
• Q1 gross margin came in at 37% vs. our estimate of (7%) and 7% in Q1/24.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $21.9M (35% margin, +647% YoY), smashing our estimate of $2.9M and $1.0M in Q1/24.
• Operating cash flow was $7.0M vs. our ($1.2M) estimate and FCFF came in at ($1.5M) vs. our ($8.7M).
• Net income was $14.6M or $0.10/share (diluted), vs. a loss in Q1/24.
• The Company finished the quarter with $96.2M in cash & equivalents and $74.0M in debt.
• APM repurchased 618.1K shares during the quarter, reducing shares outstanding by 1% QoQ.
Golden Queen Highlights
• Golden Queen generated $29.3M in revenue (+25% YoY) and $7.7M in operating income compared to our estimates of $26.1M and ($7.5M), respectively. The beat was driven by increased stacker performance.
• Q1 ore processed came in at 984Kt (+28% YoY) translating to Q1 ounces produced of 11.2Koz AuEq (-3% YoY).
• OCC was $1,459/oz (-17% YoY) and AISC was $2,213/oz (+14% YoY)
San Bartolome Highlights
• San Bartolome posted $32.6M in revenue (+67% YoY) and $11.3M in operating income, compared to our estimates of $27.5M and $2.4M, respectively.
• Q1 ore processed at San Bartolome came in at 308Kt translating to ounces produced of 10.2Koz AuEq or 915Koz AgEq.
• CGOM came in at $11.86/oz and GMR/Silver Ounces sold was 42%.
APM: Increasing Target Price on Excellent Q1 Profitability
What you need to know:• Andean reported Q1 financial results that came in well above our expectations. The beat was driven by the higher metals prices and lower than expected costs at both assets.
• Revenue was $62.0M (+44% YoY) vs. our estimate of $53.6M. OCF came in at $7.0M vs. our estimate of ($1.2M).
• APM is up 68% YTD, yet still only trades at 3.1x 2025E CF. We remain highly bullish on the stock and are increasing our target price.
Yesterday evening, Andean Precious Metals (APM:TSX, ANPMF:OTC) reported Q1 financial results that were largely ahead of our expectations. Production results were pre-released on April 15th, coming in slightly lower than our expectations (read our note here), but the increased gold price and low costs shined in yesterday’s release. We remind readers that Q1 is seasonally weaker for APM and we expect sequentially improved results through the year. Last week, Andean announced its plans for exploration in 2025 including 4,267m, with results expected in H2. We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing our target price to C$3.75/share (prev. C$3.50/share) on APM.
Financial Highlights
• Q1 revenue of $62.0M (+44% YoY) vs. our $53.6M. The beat was driven by the higher gold and silver prices when compared to our model.
• Q1 gross margin came in at 37% vs. our estimate of (7%) and 7% in Q1/24.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $21.9M (35% margin, +647% YoY), smashing our estimate of $2.9M and $1.0M in Q1/24.
• Operating cash flow was $7.0M vs. our ($1.2M) estimate and FCFF came in at ($1.5M) vs. our ($8.7M).
• Net income was $14.6M or $0.10/share (diluted), vs. a loss in Q1/24.
• The Company finished the quarter with $96.2M in cash & equivalents and $74.0M in debt.
• APM repurchased 618.1K shares during the quarter, reducing shares outstanding by 1% QoQ.
Golden Queen Highlights
• Golden Queen generated $29.3M in revenue (+25% YoY) and $7.7M in operating income compared to our estimates of $26.1M and ($7.5M), respectively. The beat was driven by increased stacker performance.
• Q1 ore processed came in at 984Kt (+28% YoY) translating to Q1 ounces produced of 11.2Koz AuEq (-3% YoY).
• OCC was $1,459/oz (-17% YoY) and AISC was $2,213/oz (+14% YoY)
San Bartolome Highlights
• San Bartolome posted $32.6M in revenue (+67% YoY) and $11.3M in operating income, compared to our estimates of $27.5M and $2.4M, respectively.
• Q1 ore processed at San Bartolome came in at 308Kt translating to ounces produced of 10.2Koz AuEq or 915Koz AgEq.
• CGOM came in at $11.86/oz and GMR/Silver Ounces sold was 42%.
Underlying
ANDEAN PRECIOUS METALS CORP
Provider
Atrium Research Corporation
Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on North American public equities using deep fundamental analysis. Our research reports are disseminated through Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Reuters and many more, as well as through our social media and email distribution lists.
Ben Pirie
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