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Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: November Edition

What you need to know: • Gold held strong in the low-$4,000/oz range (rising at the end of the month), silver extended its rally with an 18.5% increase, while copper capped off the month above $5.25/lb. • Mining equities rebounded sharply in November, with the GDX (+15.5%), GDXJ (+16.6%), SILJ (+16.7%), and COPX (+4.1%) massively outperforming broader indices (S&P 500 +0.4%, TSX +3.8%). • Policy momentum improved as the U.S. added copper and silver to its critical minerals list, G20 leaders opp...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

APM: Another Quarter of Strong Cashflow

What you need to know: • Andean reported Q3 financial results that beat our estimates with revenue of $90.4M (+32% YoY) vs. our estimate of $89.1M and OCF (before WC) of $35.4M (+75% YoY) vs. our estimate of $27.4M. • GQ had strong financials with profitability largely beating our expectations, while SB’s profitability was affected by the ore-processing model. • APM ended the quarter with $70.8M in net cash, positioning the Company to pursue additional M&A opportunities. Andean Precious Metals ...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

APM: Golden Queen Site Visit

What you need to know: • We visited APM’s Golden Queen Mine in California on October 21st. • The visit was valuable in understanding the layout of the operation, the improvements made since acquiring the project in 2023, and the several improvements that the Company plans to make. • Below, we summarize the highlights from the tour and emphasize the many improvements that can still be made, which provide upside to the operation going forward. • As a reminder, the Golden Queen Mine is APM’s 100%...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: October Edition

What you need to know: • Gold reached new record highs above $4,300/oz before settling around $4,000/oz, while silver climbed for the sixth consecutive month. • Despite this rise in metal prices, mining equities underperformed, with the GDX down 5.7%, GDXJ down 5.5%, and SILJ down 7.3%, and COPX up 3.1%, compared to the S&P 500 (+2.5%) and TSX (+0.8%). • Geopolitical developments, including the U.S. $5B critical minerals fund, G7 stockpiling alliance, and Trump's new partnerships with Australi...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

APM: Q3 Production; Increasing TP on Higher Silver Prices

What you need to know: • APM reported its Q3 production results, delivering 25.6Koz AuEq (+6% QoQ), with San Bartolome outperforming estimates while Golden Queen faced operational challenges. • With gold and silver prices surging, APM is well-positioned for strong H2 cash flow despite tracking toward the lower end of annual guidance, enabling flexibility for M&A, dividends, or buybacks. • We are increasing our commodity price assumptions and rolling over our valuation year to 2026, resulting ...

Ben Pirie ... (+3)
  • Ben Pirie
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

Q3/25 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!

Q3/25 marked a particularly strong quarter for Atrium, as precious metal prices continued to rise rapidly, driving notable outperformance across our coverage. Our covered stocks increased 46% on average in Q3/25 and are up 227% over the past year, outperforming the TSX, which gained 12% during the quarter and 37% YoY, and TSXV, which gained 29% and 67%, respectively. This builds on the 27% increase from our coverage universe in Q2/25. Top performers from our coverage this quarter include Andean ...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: September Edition

What you need to know: • In September, gold rose 10.8% to approach $3,900/oz and silver surged 14.4% toward $46/oz, marking five straight months of gains. • Mining equities strongly outperformed, with GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, and COPX up 20.9%, 23.7%, 23.9%, and 20.1%, respectively, versus the S&P 500 (+3.4%) and TSX (+5.1%). • Sector momentum was reinforced by the Fed rate cut, record financing activity among juniors, and the announcement of the $53B Teck–Anglo American merger, the largest deal in ove...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: August Edition

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market saw a resurgence in August, reaching record highs, following a subpar couple of previous months. • In August, gold was up 5%, silver was up 7%, and copper was down 2%. The equities massively outperformed the commodities, with the GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and COPX up 22.2%, 24.6%, 22.9%, and 15.8%, respectively. • Sector multiples are beginning to expand as gold firmly holds above $3,000/oz and silver surpasses $40/oz. Sentiment Update The mining se...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

APM: Q2 Financial Results Well Ahead of Expectations

What you need to know: • Andean reported Q2 financial results that came in well above our expectations. The beat was driven by the higher metals prices and lower than expected costs. • Revenue was $73.7M (+6% YoY) vs. our estimate of $64.7M. OCF came in at $26.7M (+47% YoY) vs. our estimate of $13.0M. • APM ended the quarter with $35M in net cash. We are increasing our target price on the Company given the strong cashflow performance. Yesterday evening, Andean Precious Metals (APM:TSX, ANPMF:O...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: July Edition

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market settled in July, following a tremendous run over the last six months. • In July, gold was down 1%, silver was up 2%, and copper down 13%. The equities underperformed the commodities, with the GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and COPX down 0.8%, 5.0%, 1.5%, and 4.2%, respectively. • Financings remained elevated during July, with various juniors raising funds as capital continues to trickle down. Sentiment Update The mining sector saw mixed sentiment in July,...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

APM: Q2 Production Results; Expecting Large Cashflow

What you need to know: • APM reported its Q2 production results, producing 24.3Koz AuEq between its Golden Queen and San Bartolome assets, softer than our estimates (primarily due to seasonality that we have now adjusted for). • Management reiterated that 60% of its annual production will be mined in H2 and that it remains on track for the top end of guidance. APM remains set up to generate large cash flow in the quarter, growing into H2. • The Company plans to release its Q2 financials after m...

Ben Pirie ... (+3)
  • Ben Pirie
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

Q2/25 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!

Quarterly Coverage Update Q2/25 was another strong quarter for Atrium, with continued outperformance from the precious metals space, once again led by silver equities. Our coverage universe climbed 27% on average during the quarter and is up 80% over the last year, compared to the TSX which rose 7% and 23%, respectively. This builds on the 13% gain from our coverage in Q1/25. Top performers include Santacruz Silver (+102%), Allegiant Gold (+79%) and Capitan Silver (+77%). Atrium Research was a...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: June Edition

What you need to know: • The mining sector posted another solid month in June with gold breaking its streak of gains but silver and copper performing well. This was led by increased geopolitical uncertainty, continued government spending, and potential for lower interest rates. • Gold was down 2%, silver was up 4%, and copper was up 5% compared to the GDX up 3%, GDXJ up 4%, SILJ up 12%, and COPX up 10%. • Financings remained strong in June led by a $200M equity raise for the Sprott Physical Uran...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: May Edition

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market continued its strong run in May, driven by inflationary concerns due to the trade war and geopolitical tensions. • In May, gold was up 1.8%, silver was up 1.7%, and copper was also up 1.7%. The equities outperformed the commodities, with the GDX up 3.3%, GDXJ up 6.4%, SIL up 5.9%, and COPX up 8.7%. • Financings remained elevated during May, with multiple juniors raising over $10M as generalist capital returns to the sector. • M&A activity con...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

APM: Increasing Target Price on Excellent Q1 Profitability

What you need to know: • Andean reported Q1 financial results that came in well above our expectations. The beat was driven by the higher metals prices and lower than expected costs at both assets. • Revenue was $62.0M (+44% YoY) vs. our estimate of $53.6M. OCF came in at $7.0M vs. our estimate of ($1.2M). • APM is up 68% YTD, yet still only trades at 3.1x 2025E CF. We remain highly bullish on the stock and are increasing our target price. Yesterday evening, Andean Precious Metals (APM:TSX, AN...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: April Edition

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market showed a fourth straight month of strong gains in April on the back of the escalating trade tensions. • In April, gold was up 5.6%, silver was down 4.2%, and copper was down 9.6%. The equities outperformed the commodities, with the GDX up 6.5%, GDXJ up 7.3%, and SIL up 3.3%. • Financings remained largely elevated during April, highlighting the institutional capital that has flowed into the mining sector recently. • M&A started to pick up agai...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

APM: Q1 Production Results

What you need to know: • Andean reported its Q1 production results, producing 21.4Koz AuEq between its Golden Queen and San Bartolome assets. • Production was lower than expected but APM stated it remains on track to achieve its 2025 guidance, noting that Q1 is typically its weakest quarter. • APM plans to release its Q1 financials after market on May 6th, with the conference call being held on May 7th at 9AM ET. This morning, Andean Precious Metals (APM:TSX, ANPMF:OTC) announced its Q1/25 ope...

Ben Pirie ... (+3)
  • Ben Pirie
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

Q1/25 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!

Quarterly Coverage Update Q1/25 represented another excellent quarter for our firm, with strong performance from our coverage universe. This mainly came from our exposure to precious metals, notably silver. Our coverage universe was up 13% during the quarter and 40% over the last year, compared to the TSX, which was up 0.1% and 12%, respectively. The performance in Q1 was led by Santacruz Silver (+80%), Omai Gold Mines (+80%), and Tocvan Ventures (+67%). We also proudly hosted another Investor ...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: March Edition

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market showed a third straight month of strong gains in March as investors moved into safe haven assets to protect from trade tensions and economic uncertainty. • In March, gold was up 3.4%, silver was up 0.8%, and copper was up 6.1%. The equities largely outperformed compared to the commodities, with the GDX up 15.7%, GDXJ up 17.6%, and SIL up 13.6%. • The Trump administration announced an executive order to increase American mineral production acr...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

APM: Record Q4 & 2024 Financials Beat Expectations

What you need to know: • Andean reported strong Q4 financial and operating results from both of its assets with Golden Queen producing 11.8Koz AuEq (+106% YoY) and San Bartolome producing 1.4Moz AgEq (+14% YoY). • Revenue in Q4 came in at $72.8M (+49% YoY) vs. our estimate of $69.3M, supported by the strong precious metals prices. Adjusted EBITDA was $18.9M (+272% YoY) compared to our estimate of $17.1M. • APM ended the year with $101.0M in cash and $70.3M in debt. Yesterday after market clos...

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