Report

FISH: Miss from Operating Asset; Back to Steady State in Q4

What you need to know:
• Sailfish Royalty reported Q3 financial results that missed our estimates due to decreased production from Mako Mining. Mako management has outlined that production will return to normal levels in Q4.
• Over the last nine months, FISH has repurchased 1.6M shares, decreasing its share count by 1%. FISH continues to offer the leading dividend yield amongst its peers, at 5.1%.
• Last month, we published a management interview with CEO Paolo Lostritto, watch it here.

Yesterday after market close, Sailfish Royalty (FISH:TSXV, SROYF:OTC) announced its financial results for Q3/24 ending September 30th. While the results missed our expectations due to poor performance from Mako, the results still posted 76% revenue growth and breakeven EBITDA. Last month, we initiated coverage on Sailfish, read the report here. We are maintaining our BUY rating and C$2.00/share target price on Sailfish.

Key Highlights
• Revenue came in at $0.7M compared to our expected $1.7M, yet still increased 76% YoY. The miss was attributed to decreased production from Mako Mining which reported 5.4 Koz of produced gold and 5.6 Koz of produced silver, compared to our estimates of 11.0 Koz and 40.5 Koz, respectively. This was a major step down from the pace Mako was at in H1/24, but management has outlined that Q4 production will return to normal rates, with over 2.1 Koz of gold recovered in the first 19 days of Q4.
o Mako’s production drop in Q3 was due to a period of high waste stripping after the delayed receipt of its EIA permit in July, which allowed the Company to strip the broader Las Conchitas area and open up new zones. This resulted in the diluted vein (high-grade) production to drop by 75% in Q3. Normal amounts of diluted vein material have been consistently available since the start of Q4 and is expected to be steady going forward.
• Gold ounces earned came in at 215 (+4% YoY) compared to 207 in Q3/23.
• Adjusted EBITDA of breakeven (1% margin) compared to our expected $1.1M, affected by the revenue miss. Net income was ($0.1M) vs. our $1.0M.
• FISH ended the quarter with $2.1M in cash and $4.1M in debt, however, subsequent to the quarter, FISH received 25.8 Koz of silver pertaining to its silver receivable.
Buybacks & Insider Buying
Through Q3, Sailfish repurchased 1.6M shares in addition to 208,100 shares that it purchased subsequent to the quarter. This resulted in shares outstanding decreasing 1%. Additionally, Wexford Capital purchased $327K worth of stock in the open market in September and Chairman Akiba Leisman purchased $99K in July.
Underlying
Sailfish Royalty Corp.

Provider
Atrium Research Corporation
Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on North American public equities using deep fundamental analysis. Our research reports are disseminated through Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Reuters and many more, as well as through our social media and email distribution lists. 

Analysts
Ben Pirie

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