SCZ: Q1 Production Results; Bolivar Improving QoQ
What you need to know:• Santacruz posted Q1 production results including AgEq production of 2.3Moz vs. our estimate of 2.6Moz. The miss was driven by lower than anticipated production at Zimapan and San Lucas.
• The highlight of the quarter was Bolivar which showed 28% QoQ silver production growth, beginning to bounce back from the 2025 flood.
• SCZ remains set up to reap the benefits of the high silver price, where we are expecting $42.8M on OCF and $31.3M in FCF in Q1.
Yesterday after market close, Santacruz Silver (SCZ:TSXV, SCZM:NASDAQ) reported Q1 production results. Silver equivalent production came in at 2.3Moz, below our modelled 2.6Moz, largely due to Porco where grades failed to return to historical levels which we had assumed. Additionally, the outperformance of the silver price has led to lower AgEq levels. The remaining assets had mixed performance in the quarter, with strong signs of improvement at Bolivar. The 2.3Moz AgEq was comprised of 1.3Moz of silver (flat QoQ, -16% YoY), 21.6Kt of zinc (-9% QoQ, +4% YoY), 2.7Kt of lead, and 0.3Kt of copper. We will note that the Company has stopped reporting AgEq production numbers for each individual mine in order to put a focus on actual metal production, while still including supplemental figures on AgEq and ZnEq for consolidated production. We are maintaining our BUY rating and our target price of C$34.20/share on SCZ.
Santacruz Silver Mining is engaged in the operation, acquisition, exploration and development of mineral properties in Mexico, with a primary focus on silver, but also including gold, zinc and lead. Co. is focused on meeting and maintaining its primary production objective of producing approximately 1.5 million silver equivalent ounces on a yearly basis at its producing property, the Rosario Mine. In addition, Co. is exploring three other mineral properties, being the San Felipe Project (an advanced stage project), the Gavilanes Project (an exploration project), and the El Gachi Property (an early stage exploration project).
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