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Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: January Edition

What you need to know: • Metals kicked off 2025 with explosive gains, as gold (+12.3%), silver (+17.6%), and copper (+4.4%) surged to fresh highs before late-month pullbacks, all finishing January meaningfully higher MoM. • Mining equities extended their outperformance, with the GDX (+9.9%), GDXJ (+9.1%), SILJ (+13.3%), and COPX (+18.0%) outperforming broader indices (S&P 500 +1.6%, TSX +0.6%). • Critical minerals remained a key focus, with uranium (+24.1%) breaking out on nuclear restocking an...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

SCZ: Q4 Production Highlights Strong QoQ Improvement

What you need to know: • Santacruz reported Q4/25 production of 3.74Moz AgEq, up 9% QoQ and beating our 3.48Moz by 7%, driven by strong recovery at the Bolivar Mine. • Bolivar production of 565.7Koz increased 34% QoQ from 420.6Koz as recovery plans continue to progress. • Q4 production also included strong quarters from Caballo Blanco, San Lucas, and Zimapán, beating our estimates by 10%, 10%, and 14%, and demonstrating the strength of SCZ’s multi-asset portfolio. This morning, Santacruz Silver...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: December Edition

What you need to know: • 2025 marked a decisive breakout for metals, with silver and gold delivering roughly 9x and 4x the YTD return compared to the S&P 500, capped by December highs that saw gold hit a new all-time high. • Mining equities extended their strength in December, with the GDX (+3.1%), GDXJ (+4.1%), SILJ (+7.5%), and COPX (+11.5%) outperforming broader indices (S&P 500 -0.1%, TSX +1.1%). • The macro backdrop remains supportive, with markets pricing in aggressive U.S. rate cuts, a ~...

Ben Pirie ... (+3)
  • Ben Pirie
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

Q4/25 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!

Q4/25 capped off a strong finish to the year for Atrium Research, as supportive commodity price trends and improving small-cap sentiment continued to drive performance across our coverage universe. Our covered stocks increased 21% on average during Q4/25 and are now up 170% over the past year, materially outperforming the TSX and TSXV, which gained 6% and 45% during the quarter, respectively, and 28% and 61% on a YoY basis. Performance was broad-based, with several names delivering outsized retu...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: November Edition

What you need to know: • Gold held strong in the low-$4,000/oz range (rising at the end of the month), silver extended its rally with an 18.5% increase, while copper capped off the month above $5.25/lb. • Mining equities rebounded sharply in November, with the GDX (+15.5%), GDXJ (+16.6%), SILJ (+16.7%), and COPX (+4.1%) massively outperforming broader indices (S&P 500 +0.4%, TSX +3.8%). • Policy momentum improved as the U.S. added copper and silver to its critical minerals list, G20 leaders opp...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

SCZ: Soft Q3 Financials; Still Too Cheap Relative to Cashflow

What you need to know: • Santacruz reported Q3 revenue of $80.0M (+2% YoY) vs. our estimate of $78.8M, representing 2% growth YoY. • Cash costs and AISC came in above our expectations due to higher ore purchasing costs for San Lucas, flooding at Bolivar, and plant improvements at Zimapan. We believe these are all transitional. • SCZ ended the quarter with $59.2M in cash and $45.8M in debt, now being positioned to return cash to shareholders or acquire new assets. Yesterday, after market close, ...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: October Edition

What you need to know: • Gold reached new record highs above $4,300/oz before settling around $4,000/oz, while silver climbed for the sixth consecutive month. • Despite this rise in metal prices, mining equities underperformed, with the GDX down 5.7%, GDXJ down 5.5%, and SILJ down 7.3%, and COPX up 3.1%, compared to the S&P 500 (+2.5%) and TSX (+0.8%). • Geopolitical developments, including the U.S. $5B critical minerals fund, G7 stockpiling alliance, and Trump's new partnerships with Australi...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

SCZ: Soft Q3 Production due to Flooding at Bolivar

What you need to know: • Santacruz reported its Q3/25 production results, missing our expectations mostly due to continued flooding at Bolivar. • AgEq production came in at 3.4Moz compared to our estimate of 3.9Moz, representing -3% QoQ and -15% YoY. • While the quarter was weak from a production standpoint, SCZ is still poised to generate large cashflow due to significant increase in the silver price (rising from $34/oz in July to $47/oz at the end of Q3). This morning, Santacruz Silver (SCZ:T...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

SCZ: Soracaya Advancing with Mine Planning and Permitting

What you need to know: • Santacruz has initiated development and full production permitting at its 100%-owned Soracaya Project in Bolivia’s Potosí Department, following the completion of the $40M accelerated option with Glencore that consolidated full ownership of its Bolivian portfolio. • The high-grade, silver-rich Soracaya Project hosts an Inferred Resource of 4.14MT grading 31.6% ZnEq, 1.23% Zn, 7.23% Pb, and 260 g/t Ag, supported by ~29km of drilling across 90+ holes. • We are increasing o...

Ben Pirie ... (+3)
  • Ben Pirie
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

Q3/25 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!

Q3/25 marked a particularly strong quarter for Atrium, as precious metal prices continued to rise rapidly, driving notable outperformance across our coverage. Our covered stocks increased 46% on average in Q3/25 and are up 227% over the past year, outperforming the TSX, which gained 12% during the quarter and 37% YoY, and TSXV, which gained 29% and 67%, respectively. This builds on the 27% increase from our coverage universe in Q2/25. Top performers from our coverage this quarter include Andean ...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: September Edition

What you need to know: • In September, gold rose 10.8% to approach $3,900/oz and silver surged 14.4% toward $46/oz, marking five straight months of gains. • Mining equities strongly outperformed, with GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, and COPX up 20.9%, 23.7%, 23.9%, and 20.1%, respectively, versus the S&P 500 (+3.4%) and TSX (+5.1%). • Sector momentum was reinforced by the Fed rate cut, record financing activity among juniors, and the announcement of the $53B Teck–Anglo American merger, the largest deal in ove...

Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd: 1 director

A director at Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd sold 239,000 shares at 2.421CAD and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

SCZ: Satisfies Acceleration Option for Bolivian Assets

What you need to know: • Santacruz announced the successful completion of the fourth and fifth payments ($15M), including the final installment, to Glencore. • This marks the satisfaction of the $40M Acceleration Option to complete the acquisition of the Company’s Bolivian assets. • With these payments behind it, SCZ is well-positioned to allocate cash toward growth initiatives, M&A, and returning capital to shareholders, building on its proven success with the Bolivian portfolio acquisition. ...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: August Edition

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market saw a resurgence in August, reaching record highs, following a subpar couple of previous months. • In August, gold was up 5%, silver was up 7%, and copper was down 2%. The equities massively outperformed the commodities, with the GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and COPX up 22.2%, 24.6%, 22.9%, and 15.8%, respectively. • Sector multiples are beginning to expand as gold firmly holds above $3,000/oz and silver surpasses $40/oz. Sentiment Update The mining se...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

SCZ: Another Quarter of Strong Cashflow & Lower Costs

What you need to know: • Santacruz reported Q2 revenue of $73.3M (+4% YoY) vs. our estimate of $72.1M on a 15% decline in produced ounces. • However, cost reduction was a theme for the quarter, with cash costs coming in at $19.48/oz vs. our estimate of $22.6/oz. This led to adjusted EBITDA of $26.8M compared to our estimate of $21.0M and $16.0M reported in Q2/24. • SCZ ended the quarter with $52.0M in cash and $55.0M in debt. Yesterday, Santacruz Silver (SCZ:TSXV) announced Q2 financial results...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: July Edition

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market settled in July, following a tremendous run over the last six months. • In July, gold was down 1%, silver was up 2%, and copper down 13%. The equities underperformed the commodities, with the GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and COPX down 0.8%, 5.0%, 1.5%, and 4.2%, respectively. • Financings remained elevated during July, with various juniors raising funds as capital continues to trickle down. Sentiment Update The mining sector saw mixed sentiment in July,...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

SCZ: Soft Q2 Production Results Due to Flood

What you need to know: • Santacruz reported its Q2/25 production results, missing our expectations due to flooding at Bolivar which has now been resolved. • AgEq production came in at 3.5Moz compared to our estimate of 4.6Moz, representing -4% QoQ and -15% YoY. • SCZ is up 306% since our initiation report in January, yet still remains mispriced in our view. We are increasing our target price to C$1.80/share based on 7x 2025E OCF (prev. C$1.60 based on 6x). Yesterday, after market close, Santacr...

Ben Pirie ... (+3)
  • Ben Pirie
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

Q2/25 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!

Quarterly Coverage Update Q2/25 was another strong quarter for Atrium, with continued outperformance from the precious metals space, once again led by silver equities. Our coverage universe climbed 27% on average during the quarter and is up 80% over the last year, compared to the TSX which rose 7% and 23%, respectively. This builds on the 13% gain from our coverage in Q1/25. Top performers include Santacruz Silver (+102%), Allegiant Gold (+79%) and Capitan Silver (+77%). Atrium Research was a...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: June Edition

What you need to know: • The mining sector posted another solid month in June with gold breaking its streak of gains but silver and copper performing well. This was led by increased geopolitical uncertainty, continued government spending, and potential for lower interest rates. • Gold was down 2%, silver was up 4%, and copper was up 5% compared to the GDX up 3%, GDXJ up 4%, SILJ up 12%, and COPX up 10%. • Financings remained strong in June led by a $200M equity raise for the Sprott Physical Uran...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

SCZ: Q1 Financials Beat on Major Cost Improvements

What you need to know: • SCZ reported Q1 financial results that beat our estimates due decreased costs and the increased silver price. • Santacruz reported Q1 revenue of $70.3M (+34% YoY) vs. our estimate of $69.9M and adjusted EBITDA of $27.5M (vs. negative numbers in Q1/24) beating our estimate of $14.4M. • Cash costs and AISC came in well below expectations, highlighting the effects of management’s operational improvements over the last year. Yesterday, Santacruz Silver (SCZ:TSXV) announced ...

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