AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 20.03.2026
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.19 per share: New equity raise ahead of drilling in Austria – ADX has raised A$4.4 mm new equity at A$0.027 per share. Investors will also receive one option for every two new shares, with an exercise price of A$0.0405 per share. The proceeds will fund the HOCH‑1 shallow exploration well in Austria, which is expected to spud next month. The strengthened cash position also enables well‑site preparation and materials for two additional Austrian wells. HOCH-1 is a 5.2–8.0 Bcf (P50–Pmean) prospect (2.6–4.0 Bcf net to ADX) with an upside case of 17.3 Bcf (8.7 Bcf net) with an estimated at 62% chance of success. A success would have positive read‑across for the SCHOE prospect, which holds 5.3–6.4 Bcf (P50–Pmean) of gross prospective resources (2.7–3.2 Bcf net) and an upside case of 12.2 Bcf (6.1 Bcf net). SCHOE carries a 51% chance of success. The second well to be drilled is GOLD. The GOLD cluster is estimated to hold 12.1-13.3 bcf (P50-Pmean). GOLD carries a 77% chance of success. We have revised our target price to A$0.19 per share to reflect the new equity issuance. Our unrisked valuation for HOCH and SCHOE combined is A$0.012 per share. Our unrisked NAV for the Gold cluster, assuming ADX farms down 50% WI, is A$0.02 per share.
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Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.40 per share: High production. Reserves update – Corporate production is ~5,325 boe/d, up from 4,900 boe/d in early March. Arrow expects additional production from the M-11 well which is expected to come online in the coming weeks. The well has encountered oil bearing sands in the C7 (18 feet net pay) and C9 Carbonera (30 feet net pay) formations. Arrow has added one additional Hz development well on the Mateguafa Attic field targeting the C9 formation (M-12Hz). M-12Hz is expected to spud by the end of March. YE25 2P reserves were estimated at 11.8 mmboe (YE24: 13.6 mmboe).
Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 4Q25 results – 4Q25 gross production was 10,534 boe/d increasing to an average of 12,622 boe/d in March month-to-date. LNG production is expected to commence late in 4Q26.
Corcel (CRCL LN)C; Target price of 1.40p per share: Equity raise to accelerate activities – Corcel has raised £3.6 mm of new equity at a price of 0.40p with Investors also receiving one warrant per new share, exercisable at 0.70p per share. The warrants include an accelerator clause: if the shares trade at or above 0.85p for 25 consecutive trading days, the company may issue notice requiring warrant holders to exercise within 30 days. The additional capital enables Corcel to procure long‑lead items for the upcoming KON‑16 exploration well. This strengthens the company’s negotiating position in ongoing farm‑in discussions, where we understand multiple counterparties are already engaged. The warrant‑accelerator clause also creates a pathway to self‑fund a post‑salt well, adding meaningful optionality to the exploration programme. Corcel continues to evaluate potential acquisitions, including increasing its interests in KON‑11 and KON‑12. A stronger balance sheet enhances its ability to execute such transactions. Corcel currently holds 18% WI in KON‑11 and 22.5% WI in KON‑12. KON‑12 is particularly attractive, with four pre‑salt prospects identified with each estimated to hold 50–150 mmbbl of prospective resources. Our unrisked NAV for the first KON‑16 well remains over 5.2p/sh (assuming a 71.5% working interest), equivalent to roughly 13× the current share price.
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New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C; Target price of C$1.35 per share: Positive well results boost cashflow – Following the perforation of a bypassed pay interval in the Mount Messenger formation, the Waihapa H1 well (NZE 50% WI) is producing at a stable rate of approximately 553 boe/d (oil and gas) over a 24‑hour period. Mount Messenger is the primary reservoir at the adjacent Cheal field, which has delivered roughly 12 mmbbl of cumulative oil production. Domestic gas prices remain strong at US$10–15/mcf. At current commodity prices, Monumental Energy is expected to achieve payout within days. After payout, NZE will receive ~40% of economics, reflecting Monumental’s entitlement to 25% of NZE’s net proceeds (after royalties, fees, trucking, opex and a portion of G&A).
The Waihapa H1 result follows the successful Ngaere‑1 workover, where the same formation delivered ~400 bbl/d initial rates in July. The Ngaere‑2 and Ngaere‑3 wells are scheduled for Mount Messenger workovers over the next two months, providing further near‑term production uplift potential. We now forecast ~150 boe/d net for 2Q26, including a potential 25–50 boe/d contribution from Ngaere‑2 on natural flow. Once the wells are placed on pump—expected within 2–3 months—net production could rise to ~300 boe/d. Adding contribution from Ngaere-3 would boots this figure further. Incremental production materially strengthens NZE’s cash flow and balance sheet. We estimate 2–3 mmboe of gross recoverable resource potential within the Mount Messenger interval. Pump‑assisted production history will be critical to de‑risking these volumes, and additional wells may ultimately be required. We are increasing our target price from C$1.25/share to C$1.35/share to reflect the enhanced production profile and to incorporate risked upside from Mount Messenger. The key near‑term catalysts remain the upcoming Tariki‑5 flow test and the expected indicative offer from Genesis for the gas‑storage project.
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Sintana Energy (SEI CN/LN)C; Target price of C$1.55 per share: PEL-87 extended – The extension of PEL 87 to January 2027 has been granted. This will allow the search of a farm-in partner to continue. Commitments include the drilling of one exploration well. We carry only C$0.12 per share for the licence but our unrisked NAV is C$0.99 per share.
Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN)C; Target price of US$10.50 per share: Restart of CI in a few weeks. Focus on Kossipo – The Baobab FPSO has arrived offshore South Africa and remains on schedule to reach Côte d’Ivoire in late March, keeping the planned 2Q26 restart on track. This milestone is critical to boost cash flow, particularly in the current high oil‑price environment. 2P reserves are estimated at 90.6 mmboe. Excluding the 13.7 mmboe associated with the Canadian assets sold in 1Q26, YE25 WI 2P reserves of 76.9 mmboe represent a slight increase versus YE24. With minimal exploration spend, Vaalco replaced 2.7 mmbbl of production in Gabon, 4.3 mmbbl in Egypt, and 0.3 mmbbl in Côte d’Ivoire. Vaalco expects 2026 production of 20.1–22.4 mbbl/d, as only one new Côte d’Ivoire well is anticipated to be onstream by YE26. FY26 capex is guided at US$268–336 mm (plus US$22–24 mm of RBL interest), comprising US$106–129 mm in Gabon, US$9–12 mm in Egypt, and US$152–193 mm in CI. While the overall budget is broadly in line with our US$280 mm expectation, CI spending is materially higher, and major expenditure in Equatorial Guinea is now deferred to 2027 as Vaalco evaluates options to enhance returns. The higher capex at CI reflects higher FPSO refurbishment costs (+US$30 mm net) and Vaalco’s strategy to partially drill most of the planned wells by YE26. We had assumed lower well costs (US$50 mm vs. US$60 mm), and the budget also includes US$15–20 mm for engineering and facility maintenance. Importantly, Vaalco recovers 1.25x its capex as cost oil, which mitigates the impact of higher spending. The plan also allocates US$5–10 mm to progress Kossipo toward FID. We forecast production to reach ~25 mbbl/d by YE26, increasing to ~28 mbbl/d in 2027. The investment case remains anchored in a fully funded doubling of production and a robust dividend (~5% yield). Incorporating FY26 guidance and the results of the Etame West ET‑14P exploration well, we revise our target price to US$10.5/sh.
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Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; Target price of C$17 per share: Beyond a simple production story – FY25 production, YE25 reserves, and YE25 net cash positions have already been disclosed. Since the beginning of the conflict in Iran, the Dubai benchmark has outpaced Brent price with a current premium of US$40-50/bbl. Given the fiscal terms in Thailand, this has important positive implications for Valeura’s cashflow. Valeura’s portfolio also contains several meaningful sources of upside that could be accelerated in the context of the current high oil price. We expect materially improved visibility over the coming months. FID on the initial Bussabong development (Valeura WI: 40%) could be taken in 2Q26 with 2 platforms, each developing ~50 bcf (100 bcf total) and producing ~30 mmcf/d per platform (60 mmcf/d combined) with overall net capex of ~US$50 mm. Using a domestic gas price of US$8/mcf and US$1/mcf NPV, this equates to an unrisked NAV of ~C$0.50/sh net to Valeura (C$0.25 per platform). Additional platforms could follow. The start-up of Wassana currently expected in 2Q27 could be brought forward. Valeura is also evaluating an extension of its drilling campaign (which was initially planned to include just 8 months of drilling in 2026), and is adding four additional well slots at Nong Yao A at a net cost of ~US$7 mm. With the new slots planned to be ready in November, this could accelerate drilling, with the new wells adding 1–2 mmbbl. Results from the ongoing 3D seismic over Nong Yao NE are expected in late 2026. These could unlock new exploration opportunities; we currently assume ~5 mmbbl of prospective resources. The company also plans to drill two exploration wells in 2026 across Manora DEF, Jasmine North, or the southern Wassana area. We assume ~5 mmbbl of prospective resources per target (we assume 1 in 3 chance of success). We are increasing our target price from C$15 to C$17.00/sh (in line with our new ReNAV) to reflect (1) one quarter of very high oil price with US$40/bbl premium to Brent and (2) the incremental upside associated with the 2026 activity set. This continues to be based on our ReNAV using US$70/bbl Brent from 2027 onward. Given its balance sheet and the nature of its portfolio, Valeura is well placed to benefit from higher oil price. At US$80/bbl and US$90/bl, our ReNAV would be C$20/sh and in excess of C$23/sh, respectively..
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Alvoptetro Energy (ALV CN): 4Q25 results – FY25 production in Brazil and Canada was 2,523 boe/d. YE25 2P reserves are estimated at 13.1 mmboe, YE25 net cash was US$2.5 mm.
Frontera Energy (FEC CN): FY25 results – FY25 production in Colombia and Ecuador was 39,011 boe/d. YE25 2P reserves are estimated at 133.8 mmboe. YE25 net debt was US$220 mm.
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE CN/US/CN): Strategic agreement in Colombia. Resignation of multiple directors – Gran Tierra is acquiring 49% WI in the Tisquirama block located in the Middle Magdalena Valley from Ecopetrol in return for funding a US$92 mm water flood work programme. In Phase 1 Gran Tierra will fund a programme of a minimum of US$15 mm. Upon completion of Phase 1, Gran Tierra will receive 49% of existing base production in addition to 49% of incremental production. Gross production averaged 2,500 boe/d in 2025. Anticipated potential production could reach in excess of 13,000 boe/d if development proceeds as expected. Gran Tierra also announced that four directors were resigning from their positions as members of the board with immediate effect.
Maha Capital (MAHA-A SS): Entering Venezuela – Maha is exercising the call option to acquire 24% indirect equity interest in the Venezuelan oil company PetroUrdaneta, with the consequent payment of EUR 4.6mm.
ASIA PACIFIC
Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): FDP in Vietnam approved – The FDP for Nam Du / U Minh has been approved by Vietnam. 2P reserves for the project are estimated at 32 mmboe.
Upland Resources (UPL LN): Raising equity for South East Asia – Upland has raised US$1.75 mm of new equity priced at 3.1p per share.
EUROPE
BlueNord (BNOR NO): Reserves update in Denmark – YE25P reserves are estimated at 172 mmboe (YE24: 193 mmboe). The company also holds 22.6 mmboe 2C resources.
DNO (DNO NO): Asset swap in Norway – DNO will acquire a 19% WI in Atlantis and a 10% WI in Afrodite, near the Kvitebjørn field from Equinor. return, DNO will transfer its interests in Røver, Mistral, Tyrihans East and Bergknapp, as well as the Sjørøver exploration license, to Equinor.
Eni (ENI IM): Strategy update – Production is expected grow by 3-4% per year until 2030 with capex of EUR6 bn per year.
Equinor (EQNR NO): Discovery in Norway – 14-24 mmboe resources (recoverable) have been discovered at Polynya Tubåen.
Ithaca Energy (ITH LN): FY25 results – FY25 production in the UK was 119 mboe/d with YE25 production of 148 mboe/d. YE25 2P reserves and 2C resources are estimated at 658 mmboe (including a 2P reserves replacement ratio of over 130%). YE25 net debt was US$1.3 bn (YE24: US$0.9 bn). FY26 production is expected to be 120–130 mboe/d with US$880-1,020 mm capex and US$170-210 mm decommissioning. Ithaca plans to distribute ~US$470-520 mm in dividends in 2026.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Eni (ENI IM): Discoveries offshore Libya – Over 1 tcf of gas in place was encountered at Bahr Essalam South 2 and Bahr Essalam South 3.
Energean (ENOG LN): 4Q25 results and operating update – WI production to end-February averaged 155 mboe/d, of which 118 mboe/dd was in Israel. The FY26 production guidance is 145-155 mboe/d but Israel production is now offline. FY25 production and YE25 net debt had been previously disclosed. YE25 2P reserves are estimated at 989 mmboe (YE24: 1,058 mmboe).
Genel Energy (GENL LN): FY25 results – Production at Tawke remains shut-in. YE25 net cash was US$134 mm. US$88 mm remains overdue from the KRG, although this has been reduced by ~US$40 mm credit balances. Genel expects to invest up to US$20 mm on its pre-production assets.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN): FY25 results – Production in Kurdistan averaged 41,300 bbl/d in January and February 2026 increasing to over 44,000 bbl/d at the end of the period. Production has now been shut-in and the company has put its FY26 production and capex guidance under review. Cash balance as at 18 March was US$89.1 mm. YE25 2P gross reserves were estimated at 416 mmbbl, down from 442 mmbbl. This reflects 15 mmbbl production in 2025 and a 12 mmbbl negative revision.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Afentra (AET LM): Strategic review process – Afentra is in discussion with potential counterparties to sell the company.
Tower Resources (TRP LN): Raising new equity – Tower has raised £1.5 mm of new equity priced at 0.02375p per share to repay a convertible bridge loan. The company’s key assets are in Cameroon and Namibia.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
25/03/2026: Pharos Energy (PHAR LN) – 4Q25 results
25/03/2026: EnQuest (ENQ LN): 4Q25 results
26/03/2026: Capricorn Energy (CNE LN) – 4Q25 results
26/03/2026: Serica Energy (SQZ LN) – 4Q25 results
26/03/2026: Eni (ENI IM) – 4Q25 results
Alvopetro Energy is a resource company and is engaged in the exploration for, and the acquisition, development and production of, hydrocarbons in the Reconcavo, Tucano, Camamu-Almada and Sergipe-Alagoas basins in onshore Brazil. Co. develops producing hydrocarbons by appraising and developing existing discoveries and exploring in areas considered by management to be prospective for hydrocarbon resources. Co.'s assets consist of interests in three producing fields and 16 exploration blocks comprising 148,500 gross acres onshore Brazil.
Front Range Resources is engaged in oil and natural gas exploration and production focusing on horizontal multi-stage frac development in Montney, Bluesky, Wilrich and Falher formations in the Deep Basin area of west central Alberta.
Regency Mines is engaged as a natural resource exploration and development company. Co. manages a balanced portfolio of mineral and oil and gas projects and investments at different stages of development. Co. is active in multiple international locations including the U.K., Papua New Guinea, the U.S. and Greenland.
DNO is a Norwegian exploration and production company focused on the Middle East and North Africa. Co. holds stakes in oil and gas blocks in various stages of exploration, development and production, both onshore and offshore, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia and Somaliland.
Energean Oil & Gas PLC is an exploration and production (E&P) company that is focused on the Eastern Mediterranean region, where it operates in offshore Israel, Greece, the Adriatic and Egypt. The Company has 13 E&P licenses, and 16 wells. The Company has proven plus probable (2P) reserves of 50 million barrels (MMbbls) of oil and 6 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas and 2C resources of 22.9 MMbbls of oil and 11.5 Bcf of gas at its Prinos Basin and Katakolo fields, and its associate, Energean Israel, has 2C resources of 32.8 MMbbls of liquids and 2.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas. The Company also has exploration potential in the other licences held in offshore Israel, Western Greece, and Montenegro.
Eni is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production, gas marketing operations, management of gas infrastructures, power generation, petrochemicals, oil field services and engineering industries. Co.'s operations are divided into three segments; Exploration and Production (oil and natural gas exploration and field development and production, as well as LNG operations), Gas and Power (supply, trading and marketing of gas and electricity, managing gas infrastructures for transport, distribution, storage, re-gasification, and LNG supply and marketing), and Refining and Marketing (supply of crude oil, refining and marketing of refined products). Co. maintains operations in 73 countries.
Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.
Frontera Energy is a publicly traded oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development and production of heavy crude oil and natural gas in Colombia, Peru, Brazil, and Guatemala.
Genel Energy is a holding company. Co. is principally engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and production. Co. has three segments: Oil, which is comprised of the producing assets, Taq Taq and Tawke, which are located in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and makes predominantly all sales to the Kurdistan Regional Government; Gas, which is comprised of the upstream and midstream activity on Miran and Bina Bawi also in the KRI; and Exploration, which is comprised of its exploration activity, principally located in the KRI, Somaliland and Morocco. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable working interest reserves of 161.0 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Gran Tierra Energy, together with its subsidiaries, is a company focused on oil and gas exploration and production in Colombia. Co. is primarily engaged in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Co. has one reportable segment based on geographic organization, Colombia. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. had total estimated proved reserves of 59.3 million barrels of oil and natural gas equivalent, consisting of 58.9 million barrels of oil and 2.1 million cubic feet of natural gas.
Jadestone Energy is engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration and development of oil and gas properties.
Maha Energy AB is a Sweden-based independent, international upstream oil and gas company whose business activities include exploration, development and production of crude oil. It directly operates through Maha Energy Inc in Canada, as well as Maha Energy 1 [Brazil] AB and Maha Energy 2 [Brazil] AB in Sweden. It owns an oil field in Wyoming, the United States. The Company specializes in primary, secondary and enhanced oil and gas recovery technologies, and operates a technical office in Calgary and Alberta in Canada, as well as an operations office in Newcastle and Wyoming in the United States. The Company operates as wholly-owned subsidiaries Gran Tierra Finance (Luxembourg) SARL and Gran Tierra Brazco (Luxembourg) SARL.
Sintana Energy is a development stage company engaged in oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States.
Sterling Energy, together with its subsidiary is an upstream oil and gas company. Co. is an operator of exploration and production licenses, with a primary geographic focus on Africa. Co. is primarily focused on the development of its Somaliland Odewayne block, and Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Co. holds 40% working interest in the Somaliland Odewayne exploration block. This unexplored frontier acreage position comprises an area of 22,840 sq. km. Co. holds 13.5% working interest in the Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Block C-10 covers an area of approximately 8,025 sq. km. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had a total proven plus probable oil reserves of 73,000 barrels of oil equivalent.
Tower Resources is an oil and gas exploration company Co. is an operator of international licenses with a focus on projects in Africa. Co. has exploration projects in Cameroon, South Africa and Zambia. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had interests in the following properties: a 50% interest in Algoa-Gamtoos, South Africa; a 100% interest in Thali PSC in the Rio Del Rey basin, offshore Cameroon; and a 100% interest in Block 40 & 41, Zambia. Co. has not yet commenced production.
Upland Resources is an oil and gas exploration and production company. Co.'s assets include Onshore UK-Block SK46c, East Midlands, which is located in the East Midlands Oil Province. Co. conducts its business in the United Kingdom, Malaysia and Morocco. Co.'s subsidiary, Upland Resources (UK Onshore) Ltd, is engaged in petroleum exploration and development. Upland Resources (UK Onshore) Ltd holds approximately 16.67% interest in the conventional part, which contains all the parts of Hardstoft Field that lie within Petroleum Exploration and Development Licence 299 (PEDL 299).
VAALCO Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil. The company is primarily engaged in its Etame Production Sharing Contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also owns interests in an undeveloped block offshore Equatorial Guinea, West Africa.
Valeura Energy is engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey and Western Canada. As of Dec 31 2010, proven gross reserves for light and medium oil was 116 thousand barrels (net reserves of 104 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for heavy oil was 10 thousand barrels (net reserves of 9 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for natural gas was 1,047 million cubic feet (net reserves of 938 million cubic feet); and proven gross reserves for natural gas liquids was 26 thousand barrels (net reserves of 19 thousand barrels).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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