Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Extending the Dussafu licence by up to 15 year unlocks reserves, resources and growth
• The Dussafu PSC term has been extended from 2038 to 2053. The fiscal terms for the extension remain unchanged from the current regime, and no additional work commitments have been imposed. This longer licence life has several positive implications for Panoro.• First, the extension allows existing production to run for several additional years. This increases the likelihood that a portion of the company’s 2C contingent resources can be reclassified into 2P reserves by YE26. It also prolongs access to the Dussafu processing facilities, simplifying monetisation of nearby discoveries and enhancing their value.
• Second, the additional time opens the door for further development phases. Panoro can now plan projects to commercialise its 8 mmbbl WI 2C contingent resources on the block.
• Third, the extended duration provides a longer runway for exploration. Panoro can continue to appraise and explore the Dussafu licence, maximising the value of the block’s remaining upside. Any exploration capex is added to the cost oil pool that gets recovered from existing production. This results in very low exploration costs.
• Finally, the extension increases the strategic value of adjacent acreage. Potential discoveries on the Niosi and Guduma exploration blocks (Panoro WI: 25%) could be developed through Dussafu’s existing infrastructure, improving their economic attractiveness.
• We maintain our NOK 55 per share target price ahead of the company’s reserves update expected later this month.
Valuation
Our 2P NAV for Panoro stands at NOK 41.41 per share, based on a conservative Brent price deck of approximately US$76/bbl in 2026 and US$70/bbl from 2Q27 onward. Our ReNAV is NOK 58.74 per share. At a sustained Brent price of US$90/bbl through YE27, we estimate that Panoro would generate more than US$235 mm in cumulative free cash flow over 2026–2027.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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