AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 23/05/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Adding four low risk drill-ready shallow gas prospects to start drilling by YE25 – ADX has now matured 13 shallow gas prospects across the ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II licence areas in Austria. The play is proven, supported by historical discoveries within the basin. Nearby historical discoveries in the area have produced 220 bcf to date. The prospects benefit from AVO anomalies, enhancing confidence in their potential. Four of these prospects, with a best-case recoverable resource estimate of 16.1 bcf, are drill-ready. ADX holds a 100% interest and is currently in discussions with potential partners, aiming to commence drilling in 4Q25. The first drilling cluster is expected to be the GOLD cluster, comprising the GOLD, ZAUN, and GRAB prospects, with ~11 bcf of aggregate prospective resources. These prospects lie at depths of 850–1,150 metres and carry very low geological risk (70% chance of success for GOLD). Typical wells are expected to achieve initial production rates of 10–15 mmcf/d and can be quickly brought online due to their proximity to open-access pipelines. IRR can reach 49%.
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Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Potential resources addition in EG, reducing costs in Gabon – 1Q25 production of ~12 mbbl/d and net debt at the end of March had been previously disclosed. The company has reaffirmed its FY25 production guidance of 11–13 mbbl/d but has raised its expected capex for 2025 from US$35 mm to US$40 mm. This increase reflects additional spending to appraise the Bourdon discovery. Panoro has initiated an audit of 112 mmboe WI 2C resources on Block EG-23, offshore Equatorial Guinea, in 50–100 metres of water depth. Some of these resources, estimated by the Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons, could be incorporated into the YE25 resources statement. The company is also assessing whether any of the seven discoveries (four oil, two gas, and one gas/condensate, some of which have been tested) could be candidates for early development. In Gabon, BW Energy has assumed take over operations of the FPSO BW Adolo starting November 2025. Since BW Energy is the operator of the Dussafu hub, this transition is expected to create synergies and efficiencies, leading to lower opex in 2026. These potential savings have not yet been incorporated into our forecasts. WI production in Tunisia has now reached ~1750 bbl/d net to Panoro’s WI following the addition of the El Ain-3 well that was brought on-line at ~200 bbl/d (gross) following a work-over. 1Q25 WI production was 1,492 bbl/d. Panoro is now projected to generate ~US$55 mm in free cash flow in 2025. This compares with potential shareholder returns of up to US$45 mm through dividends and share buybacks, representing a total yield of ~19%.
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Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £1.70 per share: Another very good well result. Triton on track, robust production and cashflow expected in 2H25 – From January to April 2025, production averaged 26.5 mboe/d. This is consistent with 1Q25 production of 27.6 mboe/d, which benefited from one month of output from Triton. Repairs at Triton have been completed, and production remains on track to restart in June. The FY25 production guidance of 33–37 mboe/d, with US$220–250 mm in capex, has been reaffirmed. Assuming 2Q25 production of 25 mboe/d (excluding Triton), this implies 2H25 production of 41–47 mboe/d. The BE01 well (SQZ: 100% WI) has been flow tested at 7.5 mboe/d, with rates constrained by surface equipment. This marks the third well in the campaign in a row to demonstrate excellent productivity. Before shutdown, Triton was producing ~25 mboe/d. Upon restart in mid-2025, adding the W7z and EV02 wells could increase Triton’s output to 30 mboe/d, with the tie-in of BE01 in early 2026 also boosting production. Over 20 potential infill targets have been identified at Bruce, with 5-6 high-graded drilling targets to be identified in the near term. Serica estimates 33.4 mmboe contingent resources at BKR, while FID for Kyle (11.1 mmboe, 6–8 mboe/d production in 2028) could be taken in early 2026. We continue to expect that Serica could distribute a total of £0.16 per share in dividends in 2025, representing a yield of ~11.4%. See website for full report
Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN)C; Target price of US$10.00 per share: The road to 50 mboe/d by 2030 – During the capital markets day last week, Vaalco outlined a production growth profile reaching >45 mboe/d in 2029 and 50 mboe/d in 2030 – surpassing the peak production of ~40 mboe/d that we had anticipated. Production is expected to reach ~30 mboe/d by mid-2026 , driven by the 2025/2026 drilling program in Gabon and the restart of production at Baobab in Côte d’Ivoire (CI). The next major increase is forecasted for 3Q28, with the start-up of Venus in EG, adding +20 mbbl/d gross production. Further growth will come from the Kossipo development in CI, pushing total production to 50 mboe/d by early 2030. The story is about doubling production (fully funded) while maintaining a high level of dividend distribution (currently ~7.4% yield). Excluding Kossipo and Baobab Phase 6, Vaalco’s 2026–2029 aggregate free cash flow, at US$65/bbl Brent, is forecast to equal the current market capitalization.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Angus Energy (ANGS LN): Potential acquisition of US assets – Angus has entered into a non-binding agreement to purchase a group of producing assets located in the Gulf of America.
Ascent Resources (AST LN): Acquisition in USA – Ascent is acquiring a 49% interest in a portfolio of producing oil and gas leases in west Colorado for a total consideration of US$2.5 mm, which is to be satisfied via the issuance of US$0.6 mm worth of shares at a price of 0.5p per share and a US$1.9 mm 3 year term convertible loan note issued to the vendor. The company is also acquiring an initial 10% interest in a portfolio of producing oil and gas leases in northern Utah for a total consideration of US$0.75 mm which is to be satisfied by the issue of new shares at 0.5p per share. Ascent will have the right to earn a 50% economic interest in incremental production and a further 25% interest in the leases by paying a cash consideration of US$1.5 mm. The assets in West Colorado are estimated to hold 8.06 bcf of proven reserves of natural gas and 663 bcf of prospective resources with potentially up to 5.3 bcf of helium. The Utah asset is estimated to hold 8.7 bcf of proved developed and producing reserves of natural gas and 109 bcf of prospective resources with potentially 1.3 bcf of helium.
Frontera Energy (FEC CN): Share buybacks – Frontera will offer to buyback up to 7.6 mm shares at a purchase price of C$12.00 per share, for an aggregate purchase price not exceeding C$91 mm. The closing price the day prior to the announcement was C$4.72 per share.
Helix Exploration (HEX LN)C: Positive well test results in USA – Flow test results at helium well in USA – The Lind#1 well the Rudyard Project flowed at sustained rates of 3.85 mmcf/d (gross gas) with 1.2% of helium.
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Furter Disappointing well test results in Alaska – The LS3 and LPC formations flowed only water on test.
ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA
Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): FY24 results – Production from January to April was 20,830 boe/d. Jadestone continues to expect to produce 18-21 mboe/d in 2025 with capex of US$75-95 mm. YE24 net debt was US$105 mm.
EUROPE
Aker BP (AKERBP NO): Discovery in Norway – 3.7 mmboe were encountered in the Garn formation at the E prospect. A further 1-2 mmboe were encountered in the Early Cretaceous.
Ithaca Energy (ITH LN): Acquisition of additional interest in UK asset. 1Q25 results – Ithaca is acquiring an additional 46.25% stake in the Cygnus gas field from Spirit Energy for ~US$154 mm, based on an effective date of 1 January 2025. The transaction will add 23 mmboe of 2P reserves and pro forma production between 12.5 - 13.5 mboe/d in 2025. 1Q25 production was 127.4 mboe/d. The FY25 production guidance has been increased to 109-119 mboe/d with US$580-640 mm capex to reflect the increased interest in Cygnus. Production at YE25 is expected to stand at ~135 mboe/d.
Large gas discovery in Turkey – Turkey announced a 2.6 tcf gas discovery in the Black Sea.
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN): 1Q25 results – 1Q25 lifted volumes in Kazakhstan were 16,830 boe/d. Net debt at the end of March was US$440 mm (YE24: US$404 mm).
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Capricorn Energy (CNE LN): Operating update in Egypt – Production YTD in Egypt is slightly above the mid-point of the 17-21 mboe/d FY25 guidance. Net cash is US$34 mm with receivables of US$209 mm.
Energean (ENOG LN): Operational update – 1Q25 production in Israel, Egypt and Italy was 145 mboe/d. Net debt at the end of March was US$3.1 bn (+4% vs. YE24). Energean expects to produce 155-165 mboe/d in 2025 (160-175 mboe/d previously) with capex of USS560-625 mm. Net debt is expected to be US$2.8-3.0 bn at YE25.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
GEO Exploration (GEO LN): Resources update in Namibia – Net unrisked prospective resources on PEL94 are now estimated at 4.31 bn bbl.
PetroNor E&P (PNOR NO): 1Q25 results – 1Q25 production in Congo was 4,321 bbl/d. PetroNor held US$107.5 mm in cash at the end of March.
Savannah Energy (SAVE LN): 1Q25 update in Nigeria – Gross 1Q25 production in Nigeria was 23.6 mboe/d. Net debt at the end of March was US$597.8 mm. 2P reserves at Stubb Creek were estimated at 13.8 mmbl as at the end of March (10.7 mmbbl at the end of March 2024). Gross production is expected to average ~20 mboe/d for the remainder of 2025.
Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Operating update – 1Q25 WI production was 52.9 kboepd, including 7.1 mboe/d of gas production. The FY252 production guidance, prior to the divestment of Gabon, remains 50 to 55 mboe/d. Net debt at the end of March was US$1.6 bn.
Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf. In addition, Co. has a separate Johan Sverdrup business unit to manage its interest.
Angus Energy is engaged in the on-shore, conventional production and development of hydrocarbons in the U.K.
Ascent Resources is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The principal activities of Co. comprise gas and oil exploration and production. Co.'s oil and gas interests are in Slovenia. As of Dec 31 2016, Co.'s net attributable proven reserves were 41.00 billion cubic feet equivalent.
Cairn Energy is an oil and gas exploration and development company. Co. has three groups of business unit: Senegal, which focuses on appraising the discoveries offshore Senegal and to identify further exploration prospects for drilling; U.K and Norway, which includes exploration activities in the North Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea and management of Co.'s development assets in the U.K. North Sea; and International, which consists of all other regions where Co. holds exploration licenses, including Greenland, Ireland, Morocco, Western Sahara, Mauritania and the Mediterranean. As at Dec 31 2016, Co. had total proved plus probable reserves of 51.5 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Energean Oil & Gas PLC is an exploration and production (E&P) company that is focused on the Eastern Mediterranean region, where it operates in offshore Israel, Greece, the Adriatic and Egypt. The Company has 13 E&P licenses, and 16 wells. The Company has proven plus probable (2P) reserves of 50 million barrels (MMbbls) of oil and 6 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas and 2C resources of 22.9 MMbbls of oil and 11.5 Bcf of gas at its Prinos Basin and Katakolo fields, and its associate, Energean Israel, has 2C resources of 32.8 MMbbls of liquids and 2.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas. The Company also has exploration potential in the other licences held in offshore Israel, Western Greece, and Montenegro.
Frontera Energy is a publicly traded oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development and production of heavy crude oil and natural gas in Colombia, Peru, Brazil, and Guatemala.
Jadestone Energy is engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration and development of oil and gas properties.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Pantheon Resources is engaged in the investment in oil and gas exploration and development. Co. operates in the U.K. through its parent undertaking and in the U.S. through subsidiary companies. Co. operates in two reportable segments: USA and Head Office. Non-current assets, income and operating liabilities are attributable to the USA, whilst most of the corporate administration is conducted through Head Office. As of June 30 2017, Co. held 58% working interest in the VOBM#1 & VOBM#2H wells in Polk County. Co. also held 75% working interest in VOBM#4 in Tyler County.
Savannah Petroleum is an oil and gas company. Co.'s principal activity is the management of its investment in Savannah Petroleum 1 Limited (SP1). SP1's principal activity is the management of its investment in Savannah Petroleum 2 Limited (SP2), and the provision of services to other companies within Co. SP2 has a 95% interest in Savannah Petroleum Niger R1/R2 S.A. whose principal activity is the exploration of hydrocarbons in the Republic of Niger.
Serica Energy is an independent oil and gas company with production, development and exploration licence interests in the U.K. Continental Shelf and exploration interests in Ireland, Morocco and Namibia. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable reserves of 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, which consisted of 2.1 million barrels of oil and 10.40 billion cubic feet of gas.
Tullow Oil is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. Co.'s focus is on finding oil in Africa and South America. Co.'s primary activities include targeted exploration and appraisal, selective development projects and growing its production. As of Dec 31 2017, Co.'s portfolio included 90 licences in 16 countries. Co.'s operations are organized into three business delivery teams: West Africa; East Africa; and New Ventures. As of Dec 31 2017, on a working interest basis, Co. had commercial reserves of 245.7 million barrels of oil, 268.90 billion cubic feet of gas, and 290.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (petroleum).
VAALCO Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil. The company is primarily engaged in its Etame Production Sharing Contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also owns interests in an undeveloped block offshore Equatorial Guinea, West Africa.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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