AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 25/07/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS
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New Zealand Energy (NZE CN)C; Target price of C$1.70 per share: Equity raise to progress Tariki gas storage – New Zealand Energy (NZE) has raised C$3 mm of new equity priced at C$0.18 per share. The proceeds of the raise will fund the desktop studies required to prepare the field development plan, derisking the gas storage project ahead of expected monetization within the next 12 months. It will also fund the repayment of the convertible note. On completion, the company will be debt free and have a market cap of ~C$8 mm at current share price. In 2017, the adjacent Ahuroa gas storage facility, with an estimated gas storage capacity of ~10-11 bcf (excluding ~4 bcf of cushion volumes), was sold for NZ$190 mm (~US$115 mm or ~US$1-1.1 mm/bcf). The Tariki gas storage is estimated to have a storage capacity of ~20 bcf (excluding cushion gas). Even excluding the value of Tariki’s cushion gas, the price paid for Ahuroa storage capacity suggests a value of ~NZ$345 mm for Tariki (~NZ$175 mm/US$105 mm net to NZE’s 50% WI). This equates to over C$3.45/sh. While Tariki’s expected injection and withdrawal capacities (60 mmcf/d and 45–55 mmcf/d, respectively) are similar to Ahuroa’s, its full development cost may be much lower— ~NZ$100 mm vs. Ahuroa’s NZ$190 mm. Even setting aside Tariki’s cost advantage, applying the NZ$190 mm price paid for Ahuroa implies a value of ~NZ$95 mm (US$55 mm) NZE’s 50% share in Tariki, equivalent to >C$1.90/sh. Assuming just NZ$8/mcf price volatility between summer and winter and ~3 months of withdrawal, would imply NZ$44 mm gross revenue per year (NZ$22/US$13 mm net to NZE). Deducting NZ$8 mm opex per year leads to gross cashflow of NZ$36 mm per year (US$11 mm per year net to NZE). As we incorporate the issue of new equity, we have changed our target price to C$1.70 per share in line with our new ReNAV.
See website for full report

Sintana Energy (SEI.V CN)C; Target price of C$1.80 per share: Multiple offers received by Galp for Mopane – Galp has received multiple non-binding offers from reputable parties for a stake in PEL 83, home to the Mopane discovery. The company is actively engaging with several counterparties, aiming to announce a farm-in partner by YE25. These counterparties bring strong operatorship credentials and have prioritized Namibia within their corporate strategies. They are committed to advancing and fully exploring the licence at a value-enhancing pace for Galp. Any announced transaction would provide meaningful readthrough for Sintana’s 4.9% carried interest in PEL 83, which we currently value at C$1.19 per share. Drilling at PEL 90 in partnership with Chevron is expected to commence in late 2025/early 2026, carrying an unrisked NAV of C$0.79 per share. Additionally, a carried well at PEL 82 in the Walvis Basin is planned for early 2026, also operated by Chevron. The unrisked NAV for this asset is estimated at C$0.24 per share.
See website for full report

IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS

Galp Energia (GALP LS): 2Q25 results – Net debt at the end of June was EUR1.4 bn. The company has increased its FY25 production guidance from >105 mboe/d to 105 to 110 mboe/d.

Union Jack Oil (UJO LN): Raising new equity for the USA – Union Jack has raised £2 mm of new equity at a price of 5p per share for drilling in the USA. Each new share will have one warrant attached, exercisable at 8p for a period of 2 years.

ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA

Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): 1H25 update – 1H25 production in Australia, Indonesia and Thailand was 20,368 boe/d. Net debt at the end of June was ~US$108 mm. The FY25 production guidance has been increased to 19,500-21,500 boe/d (from 18-21,000 boe/d), reflecting robust performance in Indonesia. The FY25 capital expenditure guidance has also been increased from US$75-95 mm to US$105-115 mm following cost overrun at Skua-11ST drilling in Australia. The FY25 operating cost range is reduced to US$240-280 mm (from US$250-300 mm).

EUROPE

Angus Energy (ANGS LN): 2Q25 update in the UK – 2Q25 production was 3.8 mmcf/d (natural gas) plus 67 bbl/d of condensates.

DNO (DNO NO)/Var Energy (VAR NO): Discovery in Norway – Up to 100 mmboe have been discovered at Vidsyn.

Eni (ENI IM): 2Q25 results –Adjusted net profit over the period was EUR1,134 mm with production of 1,668 mboe/d.

Inpex: Acquiring Norwegian assets - Inpex is acquiring 10% interest in the producing Valhall and Hod fields, 20% interest in the Slagugle discovery, and 20% interest in the Mistral discovery from Pandion Energy.

Equinor (EQNR NO): 2Q25 results – Adjusted net income over the period was US$1.67 bn with 2,096 mboe/d production.

Repsol (REP SM): 2Q25 results – Adjusted net income over the period was EUR0.7 mm with 557 mboe/d production.

TotalEnergies (TTE FP): 2Q25 results – Adjusted net income over the period was US$3.6 bn with 2.53 mmboe/d production. The FY25 production growth and capex guidances have been re-iterated.

Var Energi (VAR NO): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 production in Norway was 288 mboe/d. Current production is above 350 mboe/d. Production is expected to reach ~430 mboe/d in 4Q25. Net debt at the end of June was US$5.2 bn (+US$0.6 bn vs. the end of March). Spending will be reduced by US$500 mm in 2025-2026. The company expects to distribute US$1.2 bn in dividends per year in 2025 and 2026.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Capricorn Energy (CNE LN): Operating update in Egypt – 1H25 production was ~20 mboe/d. Three exploration wells have been drilled with one each on the North Um Baraka, West El Fayoum and South East Horus concessions. All three wells encountered hydrocarbons and are currently under analysis in anticipation of testing to evaluate commerciality. Capricorn expects to convert ~20 mmboe WI resources into 2P reserves in 2025. Capricorn's receivables position remains relatively flat from YE24 at US$172 mm at the end of June. Capricorn's cash position was US$96 mm at the end of June (US$91 mm in May).

DNO (DNO NO): Operating update – 2Q25 WI production in Kurdistan, Norway and Cote d’Ivoire was 56,070 bbl/d, 33,348 boe/d and 3,175 boe/d respectively.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Selling Kenya – Tullow is selling its Kenyan assets to Gulf Energy for a minimum of US$120 mm. The consideration includes US$40 mm on completion, US$40 mm payable on the earlier of FDP approval or 30/06/2026 and US$40 mm payable over five years from 3Q28 onwards. Tullow will also receive quarterly royalty payments of US$0.5/bbl multiplied by 80% of total production, subject to oil price, resource and production related conditions.

EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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30/07/2025: Parex Resources (PXT CN) – 2Q25 results
30/07/2025: Seplat Energy (SEPL LN) – 2Q25 results
31/07/2025: OMV (OMV AG) – 2Q25 results
31/07/2025: Shell (SHEL LN) – 2Q25 results
01/08/2025: BW Energy (BWE NO) – 2Q25 results