Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): First LNG on track for 2Q26. Uzbekistan new horizontal wells could yield 15 mmcf/d IP rate
• 2Q25 to date production in Uzbekistan was 10,332 boe/d as production rates have been partially restricted due to unplanned downstream infrastructure maintenance at non operated facilities.• Downstream facilities are now fully operational, with June production rising to 11,179 boe/d (close to our 2Q25 forecast of 11,673 boe/d).
• Fabrication of the first LNG modular facility (48,000 gallons / 80 t per day) remains on track for 4Q25 completion, with first LNG production anticipated in 2Q26. The LNG offtake contract is expected to be finalized shortly.
• Securing an offtake contract would be a major milestone, significantly de-risking the LNG business. Our unrisked NAV for the first modular LNG facility (48,000 gallons / 80 t per day) is ~C$1.19 per share, while the total unrisked value of Condor’s LNG portfolio exceeds C$8.00 per share.
• We estimate the first modular LNG facility will generate ~US$10 mm in annual operating cash flow.
• We re-iterate our target price of C$5.90 per share.
More details on the Uzbekistan drilling programme
• A drilling rig is scheduled for mobilization in July to commence a combination of vertical, horizontal, and Uzbekistan’s first multi-lateral wells. The initial well will target the currently producing Jurassic Carbonates and extend to basement rock to assess deeper, under-explored Jurassic Clastics and a potential fractured basement play.
• The second well is planned as a horizontal well with a lateral section of up to 1,500 m. All wells will be completed using modern stimulation techniques to enhance productivity. Horizontal well type curves indicate an IP rate of 15 mmcf/d (equivalent to 2.5 mboe/d) and estimated ultimate recovery of 4.5 bcf per well.
• Production is also expected to benefit from the commissioning of a fifth in-field flowline unit in early July. Additional uplift could come from the deployment of field compression.
Valuation
We forecast production of 15.8 mboe/d in 4Q25 increasing to 16.5 mboe/d in 1Q26. Our ReNAV is unchanged at C$5.90 per share.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
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