Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): High production on good well results. LNG environment increasingly supportive
• 4Q25 production of 10,534 boe/d had been previously disclosed. Output has since increased to an average of 12,622 boe/d in March, reflecting the strong contributions from the A‑21 Hz well (+1.2 mboe/d) and the K‑45 vertical well (+0.9 mboe/d).• We expect production to climb further in the coming weeks with the continued active workover program that has been yielding strong results recently and the A‑23 Hz well, which is nearing first production following recent acidization and the upcoming replacement of a faulty sliding sleeve. In parallel, the K‑46 horizontal well is scheduled for testing in mid‑April; K‑46 could deliver 2–4x the 0.9 mboe/d achieved at the adjacent vertical K‑45. We currently forecast ~16 mboe/d average production in 3Q26.
• With a further 8 wells planned for the remainder of 2026, production is set to increase materially, and we forecast ~19 mboe/d at YE26.
• The YE25 2P reserves estimates reflect the YE24 position minus FY25 production. We expect the strong operational results delivered so far in 2026 to be fully captured in the YE26 reserves update, resulting in a material uplift.
• We reiterate our target price of C$5.60 per share.
Hormuz, the North Field and Condor’s LNG
• With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the Central Asia corridor is becoming increasingly strategic for China. At the same time, Qatar has indicated it may take up to 5 years to restore full capacity at the North Field, the world’s largest gas field. LNG prices have surged accordingly, with TTF prices doubling in March. Condor’s LNG is becoming increasingly strategic.
• Chinese heavy‑duty trucks have been authorised to operate in Kazakhstan as of 1 January 2026. Roughly one‑third of China’s heavy‑truck fleet runs on LNG, yet the size of Condor’s first LNG plant will limit it to being able to supply only ~350 trucks, suggesting material sales growth potential.
• Local media reports indicate that the Akimat (district administration) of the Alga District has confirmed plans to begin construction of an LNG production plant by Condor next year, further underscoring the momentum behind regional LNG infrastructure development.
Valuation
Our ReNAV for Condor is C$5.55 per share. The total unrisked value of Condor’s broader LNG portfolio is ~C$7.30 per share.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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