Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Large Reserves and Resources increase
• Criterium has doubled its 2P reserves versus YE24, booking approximately 24 bcf for the SE‑MGH and N‑MGH developments, where first gas is expected from SE-MGH in 2Q26.• The reserves increase reflects not only the conversion of 14.9 bcf of 2C resources into 2P, but also: (1) a reassessment of reservoir properties informed by the extended well test at SEM‑01 (+6 bcf), and (2) the successful test of MGH‑20 (+3 bcf).
• At Macan Gedang, the probability of development has risen to 70%, corresponding to 12.6 bcf of contingent resources. FDP approval and reserves booking are expected in 2026, with first gas targeted for 2027.
• Criterium has also added 13.1 mmbbl of oil contingent resources, reflecting two new sources of upside.
• Firstly, 8.4 mmbbl of additional 2C resources are associated with a planned waterflood programme at MGH, targeting unswept oil within the Talang Aker Formation (TAF). Feasibility studies and a pilot are expected in the near term, with full implementation in 2027. This initiative could drive further reserves additions, and the independent auditor has assigned a 50% chance of success.
• Secondly, the Lemat Formation, located beneath the main TAF reservoir, has previously flowed oil on test. Criterium plans to unlock the 4.7 mmbbl of 2C resources through stimulation techniques such as hydraulic fracturing from existing wells. The auditor has assigned a 30% chance of success.
• We have increased our target price from C$0.35 per share to to C$0.40 per share, consistent with our updated ReNAV.
Valuation
We have increased our chance of development for SE-MGH and N-MGH to 100%. Our 2P NAV for the company is C$0.16 per share (representing 1.6x the current share price). Taking FID on Macan Gedang (by YE26) would add C$0.08 per share while Cerah would contribute C$0.12 per share, bringing the total potential valuation to C$0.36 per share. Given the current oil price environment, we have attributed some value to the waterflood programme and to the Lemat formation upside (unrisked value of US$3/bbl). Our overall unrisked NAV is C$0.59 per share with a ReNAV of C$0.40 per share.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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