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Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Onshore gas development takes centr...

• 4Q24 production was 957 bbld (880 bbl/d in 3Q24). January's production so far is 1,020 bbl/d. This excludes the impact of the last four workovers of the 2024 programme. These workovers could boost production to 1,100-1,150 bbl/d. This level of production could be sustained throughout 2025 with a 10-13 workover programme costing less than US$1 mm. • 4Q24 G&A plus opex is estimated at US$2.97 mm, down from ~US$3.3 mm in 3Q24. • The MGH-43 well has not yet been brought into production. Potential ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 29/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of NOK51 per share: Water inflow from a small interval in Welchau deeper formation. Continuing well test up hole – Two intervals in the Steinalm formation (1452.5 m-1463.5 m and 1474.5 m-1480 m MD) were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate hig...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 18/10/2024

We have launched our new website with a revamped research portal – Home | Auctus Advisors. We’d be very interested to receive any feedback you may have. AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: Encouraging drilling results. Decreasing opex – Production to date in October is 950 bbl/d, the same level as reported on 24 September. The MGH-43 well has encountered 41 m of prospective gross sand intervals with good to exc...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 27/09/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Another horizontal well with high flow rate – The fourth horizontal well at Carrizales Notre (CNB HZ-5) has been put on production at a gross oil rate of 2.7 mbbl/d (1.35 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 11%. This flow rate compares favourably with CNB HZ-4 that was put on production at a gross oil rate of >2.5 mbbl/d (8% water cut). Overall gross oil production fro...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): High production in September. The d...

• Current production has reached 950 bbl/d, representing an increase of 90 bbl/d since August. This reflects the very good performance of the work-over programme with 98 bbl/d incremental production from three new workovers in Tranche 3 from early August. • Overall, the programme (three tranches with a total of 11 work-overs so far) has delivered 227 bbl/d of incremental production. • In addition, the work-over of MGH-48 has encountered gas, which will be used as feed gas to reduce the consumpti...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Debt agreement frees up US$1.5 mm. ...

• 2Q24 production was 812 bbl/d. Criterium held ~C$6 mm in cash at the end of June. These figures are in line with our expectations. • 2Q24 operating costs per bbl have been reduced by 7% compared to 1Q24. With the MGH-40 & MGH-43 wells scheduled to spud imminently and expected to add 150-200 bbl/d each with minimal added variable cost, per bbl operating costs are expected to decrease by a further 30%. • We continue to forecast that Criterium will exit 2024 with ~1,250 boe/d production. At this ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/08/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: New drilling expected to start in September – A drilling rig is scheduled to be mobilized to site in August. The two-well infill program, targeting a previously undrilled section of the MGH Field, is anticipated to commence in early September with the wells expected to come on production in early November at a forecasted combined rate of 300 bbl/d. While this is a bit later tha...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): New drilling expected to start in S...

• A drilling rig is scheduled to be mobilize on site in August. The two-well infill program, targeting a previously undrilled section of the MGH Field, is anticipated to commence in early September with the wells expected to come on production in early November at a forecasted combined rate of 300 bbl/d. • While this is a bit later than we anticipated, we continue to forecast that Criterium will exit 2024 with ~1,250 boe/d production. • The programme is expected to cost only US$4.5 mm with payba...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/06/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: target price of £0.50 per share: Key step towards developing future gas to industry business onshore Morocco – Chariot has signed Heads of Terms with Vivo Energy for the future offtake from the Loukos onshore licence where natural gas has been encountered at Dartois. Up to 3 mmcf/d would be initially sold to the CNG midstream business under a long-term gas sales agreement. Vivo intends to design, fund, construct and...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Results of work-over campaign above...

• The work-over programme has delivered a production increase of 180 bbl/d from six wells at a total cost of US$0.36 mm. This represents an average increase of ~30 bbl/d, which is 50% above management’s expectations (20 bbl/d). The overall costs are on budget. • One of the worked-over wells, MGH-07, is now producing 40 mcf/d of natural gas (no natural gas production previously). The produced gas is used as fuel for power generation, directly reducing diesel consumption by 50%, resulting in an an...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/06/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C: target price of C$0.35 per share: Re-iterating production guidance – 1Q24 production was 802 bbl/d with average realized price of US$82/bbl. This is in line with our expectations. Operating netbacks for the period stood at C$2.2 mm, also in line with our expectations. Operating cashflow before changes in working capital was (C$0.37 mm). With a large proportion of opex being fixed, growing production is very...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Re-iterating production guidance

• 1Q24 production was 802 bbl/d with average realized price of US$82/bbl. • This is in line with our expectations. • Operating netbacks for the period stood at C$2.2 mm, also in line with our expectations. • Operating cashflow before changes in working capital was (C$0.37 mm). • With a large proportion of opex being fixed, growing production is very important to start generating positive operating cash flow. Production has already increased to 870 bbl/d with five well workovers executed in the M...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 24/05/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Drilling at the second well onshore Morocco has commenced – Chariot has started to drill the Dartois prospect onshore Morocco. The well is targeting a different reservoir system and trapping style than the Gaufrette prospect. The main target at Dartois is estimated to hold 12 bcf of gross prospective resources. Success would de-risk a total of 20 bcf of gross prospective resources (+...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Signing a binding sale agreement fo...

• Criterium has signed a binding sale agreement for its interest in the Bulu PSC for US$7.75 mm in cash. The price is in line with previous indications. • This is a very important announcement as it provides more clarity on the divestment, the proceeds of which will boost the company's balance sheet and allow it to accelerate its investment program and grow production faster. • The total proceeds from the divestment are greater than the company's current market capitalization. • Pending the com...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 03/05/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.75 per share: Raising new equity to fund a high impact activity programme – ADX has raised A$13.5 mm of new equity priced at A$0.105 per share. One free-attaching option will be issued for evert two placement shares with an exercise price of A$0.15 per share and an expiry date of 08/05/2026. The proceeds from the raise will fund (1) the production testing of the 450 m gas column encountered at ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): On track

• The work-over programme has started with the first two work-overs having added a total of ~40 bbl/d. The third work-over was not completed as damaged equipment was encountered downhole. • The second tranche of work-overs will start in May. Overall, 12-15 work-overs will be undertaken during 2024, at a pace of 2-3 workovers per month, potentially adding a total of 240-300 boe/d. • The drilling of new wells is expected to start in 3Q24 at a cost of US$1.8 mm per new well. 10 infill development a...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 05/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Sample analysis at Welchau – Compositional analysis of a gas sample at Welchau shows 92 mole % methane, 4 mole % ethane with low CO2 and no H2S. Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; target price of C$0.30 per share: Growth within cashflow – The FY24 guidance reflects a self-funded development and debt repayment programme. While a reduced capital programme, we believe this is a prudent str...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Growth within cashflow

• The FY24 guidance reflects a self-funded development and debt repayment programme. While a reduced capital programme, we believe this is a prudent strategy with upside optionality should additional funds from the Bulu sale or higher oil prices materialize. • As a result of the Bulu sale not completed yet, Criterium is carrying more debt than we expected (the repayment of US$5.5 mm of debt in March would have also triggered a US$3.8 mm debt write down). Pending the divestment of Bulu, we expect...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Auctus on Friday - 22/12/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Oversuscribed share purchase plan – ADX has raised a further ~A$1.6 mm as part of a share purchase plan. The terms are in line with the recently announced A$4.8 mm equity raise priced at A$0.10 per share. Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Extending position in electricity trading company – Chariot is acquiring 49% of Etana Energy from the Neura Group, with H1 a...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Further improvements on Mont d’Or t...

• The completion payment by Criterium on the closing of the Mont d’Or acquisition has been reduced by 60% to US$4.5 mm. • The pro forma working capital held by Mont d’Or is estimated at ~US$8 mm. • Only US$4.1 mm will now be repaid to Mont d’Or debt holders on completing the acquisition (US$9.6 mm previously) with US$0.5 mm being written down (US$4.3 mm previously). • With these improved terms, Criterium no longer requires the expensive and dilutive ~US$9 mm (C$12.2 mm) convertible funding (...

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