AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 06/06/2025

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price of C$0.35 per share: On track for first gas in 1Q26 – 1Q25 production of 988 boe/d had been previously reported. Criterium held ~C$1.6 mm in cash at the end of 1Q25. The company has reduced its accounts payable by ~C$3.5 mm while inventory + amounts receivable were flat vs. YE24. Operations are expected to commence at North MGH in June. Four wells were shut-in in 2014 due to high GOR. Criterium is looking to re-open some of the wells in the area. No resou...

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): On track for first gas in 1Q26

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/05/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: Recovering 75% WI of licences in Morocco – Energean has returned its Moroccan offshore interests to Chariot. As a result, Chariot now holds 75% in the Lixus Offshore and Rissana Offshore licences. Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: Acquiring a LNG facility for Kazakhstan to deliver first LNG sale in 2Q26 – 1Q25 production in Uzbekistan was 11,179 boe/d (+6% vs. production in 4Q24). Condor ...

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Stepping on the gas

• The staged development of gas discoveries at Tungkal is the primary driver of near-term growth. Assuming flat oil production, bringing just two gas discoveries online could enable Criterium to triple output to ~3 mboe/d and triple 2P reserves by early 2027 • The first discovery to be developed, SE MGH (15 bcf 2C resources), is expected to see resource conversion to reserves in 2025. In early 3Q25, the existing well—previously tested at 8 mmcf/d—will be re-tested, with initial production of 5-...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 21/03/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.10 per share: Significant power transaction highlights the value of the S. Africa electricity trading business – Etana Energy, the South African electricity trading business (49% held by Chariot) has arranged a US$55 mm guarantee finance facility through Standard Bank and secured an equity investment of up to US$20 mm from Norfund for working capital. In exchange, Standard Bank and Norfund will ho...

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Replacing 160% of FY24 oil producti...

• At YE24, Criterium was estimated to hold 4.6 mmbbl 2P oil reserves, a slight increase from estimated YE23, as the reserves additions from the work-over program (especially the new GH sand) more tan offsets FY24 production of approximately 0.3 mmboe. • The after-tax NPV10 of the 2P reserves is US$60 mm. • The 2C contingent gas resources at Tungkal are estimated at 27.5 bcf, higher than the previous estimate of 20 bcf. The auditor has attributed a 90% chance of development to Southeast Mengoepeh...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/02/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: New acreage in Austria increases prospect inventory with a focus on low risk, shallow gas - ADX’s acreage in Austria has been modified to include additional near-term, low-risk gas prospects, as well as high-impact, higher-risk opportunities. One focus of the 2025 program is to drill shallow, low-risk, high initial production gas prospects that can be rapidly put into production. ...

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Gas development capex only US$3-5 m...

• FY25 oil production is expected to be 1,000-1,200 bbl/d with 8-12 work-overs costing US$0.04-0.07 mm per well (total of US$0.32-US$0.84 mm). This in line with our expectations (1,150 bbl/d production and ~US$1 mm capex). • The capex requirement to reach first gas in 1Q26 at SE MGH based on modular LNG is now estimated at US$3-5 mm (we assumed US$5 mm). This is significantly lower than the initial estimate of US$14 mm, which included the construction of a short pipeline to the main trunk. Resta...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 24/01/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Historic permit award in Italy opens a new growth area - ADX has been offered and accepted the “d 363 C.R-.AX” permit in the Sicily Channel, offshore Italy, covering a maximum area of 346 km2. ADX applied for the permit in 2018, but the moratorium on awarding new exploration blocks in Italy was only lifted last year. ADX will become a licensed operator in Italy as well as Austria ...

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Onshore gas development takes centr...

• 4Q24 production was 957 bbld (880 bbl/d in 3Q24). January's production so far is 1,020 bbl/d. This excludes the impact of the last four workovers of the 2024 programme. These workovers could boost production to 1,100-1,150 bbl/d. This level of production could be sustained throughout 2025 with a 10-13 workover programme costing less than US$1 mm. • 4Q24 G&A plus opex is estimated at US$2.97 mm, down from ~US$3.3 mm in 3Q24. • The MGH-43 well has not yet been brought into production. Potential ...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 29/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of NOK51 per share: Water inflow from a small interval in Welchau deeper formation. Continuing well test up hole – Two intervals in the Steinalm formation (1452.5 m-1463.5 m and 1474.5 m-1480 m MD) were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate hig...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 18/10/2024

We have launched our new website with a revamped research portal – Home | Auctus Advisors. We’d be very interested to receive any feedback you may have. AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: Encouraging drilling results. Decreasing opex – Production to date in October is 950 bbl/d, the same level as reported on 24 September. The MGH-43 well has encountered 41 m of prospective gross sand intervals with good to exc...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 27/09/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Another horizontal well with high flow rate – The fourth horizontal well at Carrizales Notre (CNB HZ-5) has been put on production at a gross oil rate of 2.7 mbbl/d (1.35 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 11%. This flow rate compares favourably with CNB HZ-4 that was put on production at a gross oil rate of >2.5 mbbl/d (8% water cut). Overall gross oil production fro...

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): High production in September. The d...

• Current production has reached 950 bbl/d, representing an increase of 90 bbl/d since August. This reflects the very good performance of the work-over programme with 98 bbl/d incremental production from three new workovers in Tranche 3 from early August. • Overall, the programme (three tranches with a total of 11 work-overs so far) has delivered 227 bbl/d of incremental production. • In addition, the work-over of MGH-48 has encountered gas, which will be used as feed gas to reduce the consumpti...

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Debt agreement frees up US$1.5 mm. ...

• 2Q24 production was 812 bbl/d. Criterium held ~C$6 mm in cash at the end of June. These figures are in line with our expectations. • 2Q24 operating costs per bbl have been reduced by 7% compared to 1Q24. With the MGH-40 & MGH-43 wells scheduled to spud imminently and expected to add 150-200 bbl/d each with minimal added variable cost, per bbl operating costs are expected to decrease by a further 30%. • We continue to forecast that Criterium will exit 2024 with ~1,250 boe/d production. At this ...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/08/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: New drilling expected to start in September – A drilling rig is scheduled to be mobilized to site in August. The two-well infill program, targeting a previously undrilled section of the MGH Field, is anticipated to commence in early September with the wells expected to come on production in early November at a forecasted combined rate of 300 bbl/d. While this is a bit later tha...

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): New drilling expected to start in S...

• A drilling rig is scheduled to be mobilize on site in August. The two-well infill program, targeting a previously undrilled section of the MGH Field, is anticipated to commence in early September with the wells expected to come on production in early November at a forecasted combined rate of 300 bbl/d. • While this is a bit later than we anticipated, we continue to forecast that Criterium will exit 2024 with ~1,250 boe/d production. • The programme is expected to cost only US$4.5 mm with payba...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/06/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: target price of £0.50 per share: Key step towards developing future gas to industry business onshore Morocco – Chariot has signed Heads of Terms with Vivo Energy for the future offtake from the Loukos onshore licence where natural gas has been encountered at Dartois. Up to 3 mmcf/d would be initially sold to the CNG midstream business under a long-term gas sales agreement. Vivo intends to design, fund, construct and...

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Results of work-over campaign above...

• The work-over programme has delivered a production increase of 180 bbl/d from six wells at a total cost of US$0.36 mm. This represents an average increase of ~30 bbl/d, which is 50% above management’s expectations (20 bbl/d). The overall costs are on budget. • One of the worked-over wells, MGH-07, is now producing 40 mcf/d of natural gas (no natural gas production previously). The produced gas is used as fuel for power generation, directly reducing diesel consumption by 50%, resulting in an an...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/06/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C: target price of C$0.35 per share: Re-iterating production guidance – 1Q24 production was 802 bbl/d with average realized price of US$82/bbl. This is in line with our expectations. Operating netbacks for the period stood at C$2.2 mm, also in line with our expectations. Operating cashflow before changes in working capital was (C$0.37 mm). With a large proportion of opex being fixed, growing production is very...