Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance
• 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia.• Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations are now back online. We project ~3,800 bbl/d WI production in Equatorial Guinea over 2Q-4Q25.
• Output in Tunisia has increased compared to 4Q24 (1,467 bbl/d) following low-cost workovers.
• The FY25 production guidance of 11 mbbl/d to 13 mbbl/d has been re-iterated.
• Assuming US$60/bbl over 2Q-4Q25, we estimate US$75 mm free cash flow in 2025. The company is authorized to distribute up to US$45 mm via dividends and share buybacks, representing a total yield exceeding 19%.
• Lower Brent prices could present attractive acquisition opportunities.
• We anticipate that Panoro will drill new exploration wells in Gabon in 2026. We also anticipate greater visibility on the potential of the new licences in EG and in Gabon.
• We re-iterate our target price of NOK49 per share.
Valuation
Our Core NAV and ReNAV are NOK38 per share and NOK48 per share respectively. Our capex forecast from 2026 onwards does not account for exploration spending. We estimate that the aggregate Free Cash Flow from 2025 to 2027 will be equivalent to the current market cap. Even with additional exploration expenditures, there remains ample capacity to support future shareholder distributions.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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