PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): 4Q25 in line. Entering 2026 with a strong cash position
• 4Q25 production averaged 15,258 bbl/d, comprising 14,766 bbl/d from Bretana and 492 bbl/d from the Los Angeles field.• The result is in line with our forecasts and consistent with the 14,983 bbl/d reported during the first 10 days of November.
• Production from the six wells previously shut‑in due to tubing leaks has now been fully restored following workover operations. As a result, average production (including Los Angeles) during the first week of January has increased to ~15.6 mbbl/d, tracking the indicative profile PetroTal provided in November.
• We currently forecast 14.1 mbbl/d for 1Q26 and 13.9 mbbl/d for FY26, though these assumptions will be updated once the company releases its budget toward the end of January. We continue to assume that drilling activity will not resume until mid‑2026.
• Jorge Osorio joined PetroTal as Chief Operating Officer. Jorge Osorio held senior operational and project leadership roles at Ecopetrol and BP. He was Vice President of upstream at Ecopetrol, managing a portfolio delivering ~730 mbbl/d.
• We reiterate our £0.80 per share target price. Following the recent share price decline—driven by the suspension of the dividend and the likely resulting shift in the shareholder register—the stock offers significant deep value at current levels. In our view, the company also could be a credible takeover candidate.
High cash position at YE25
PetroTal reported a year‑end 2025 cash balance of US$139.1 mm, broadly unchanged from end‑September (US$141.5 mm), alongside ~US$50 mm of debt. Receivables and payables remain broadly matched at ~US$62 mm and ~US$60 mm, respectively. Importantly, the company held US$112.4 mm of unrestricted cash at YE25, providing a ~US$70 mm liquidity buffer relative to the ~US$50 mm minimum cash balance PetroTal aims to maintain on its balance sheet.
Valuation
Our 2P Core NAV now stands at £0.56 per share, representing ~2.5x the current share price, with a ReNAV of £0.75 per share.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
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