PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Minor production deferral. FY25 production guidance re-iterated
• 3Q25 production to 15 September averaged 18,805 bbl/d, comprising 479 bbl/d at Los Angeles and the balance at Bretana.• PetroTal has identified tubing leaks in six wells, impairing artificial lift efficiency. Four wells have been temporarily shut-in pending tubing replacement. Consequently, early September production averaged just 16,750 bbl/d, down from a peak of over 21 mbbl/d in mid-July.
• The service rig is scheduled to mobilize to Bretana at the end of October, following completion of the ongoing campaign at Los Angeles. Bretana production is expected to normalize in November.
• The Bretana workover campaign is estimated at US$3–5 mm, which is immaterial relative to our assumed FY25 capex of ~US$80 mm.
• The tubing issues are expected to reduce FY25 output by only ~1 mbbl/d. PetroTal has reaffirmed its FY25 production guidance of 20–21 mbbl/d. We maintain our 3Q25 and FY25 forecasts at 17.6 mbbl/d and 20.1 mbbl/d, respectively.
• Pending the publication of the company’s FY26 budget in early 2026, we assume PetroTal will drill 3-4 wells at Bretana in 2026. Our FY26 capex forecast remains unchanged at ~US$100 mm.
• YE26 net cash is expected to remain in line with YE25, even after paying a dividend equal to the 2025 level.
• We reiterate our target price of £1.00 per share. Following recent share price weakness, the FY25 dividend yield now stands at ~13%, reinforcing the value proposition.
Super Major enters Peru offshore
Chevron has acquired a 35% working interest in blocks Z-61, Z-62, and Z-63. Although these assets are geographically distant from PetroTal’s operating area, we interpret Chevron’s entry as a strategic endorsement of Peru’s upstream potential and a positive signal for the country’s broader hydrocarbon investment climate.
Valuation
Our 2P Core NAV is now £0.74 per share (representing 2.25x the current share price) with a ReNAV of £0.97 per share. We continue to assume ~24% royalty at Los Angeles though this may prove to be overly conservative.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.