Q1 Result: Binect´s break-even sustainable, KeyIdentity´s KPIs advancing
Today, MAX21 AG (ISIN DE000A0D88T9, Basic Board, MA1 GY) published its Q1 2018 results.
Binect: Total mail volume rose by 12% due to new clients and increased volume with existing ones. Extrapolating the number of letters processed by Binect in Q1 would result in a total of 116 Mill. on a full year basis and hence outperform our forecast of 112 Mill. Consistently, same applies for the top line which is reported at €1.5 Mill. and would result in €6 Mill. (our forecast: €4.8 Mill.). However, for cautious reasons we adhere to our previous forecast.
While EBITDA turned positive by yoy (€0.1 Mill. vs. €â€‘0.2 Mill.) and most likely will remain so, it may be burdened for the rest of the year due to increased personnel (+2). Hence, we consider our forecast year end EBITDA of €0.3 Mill. as a reasonable estimate.
KeyIdentity: Compared to fiscal 2017, the mean Life Time Value of contracts increased due to the acquisition of a large client (Basler Versicherungen). Along with a rise in the overall number of contracts from 288 at year end to 302, mean monthly recurring revenues (MRR) increased from €47 ths. to €84 ths. Apart from the mean values, second quarter starts with MRR of > €100 ths.
Despite the discontinuation of the penetration test business (PT), sales remained constant at €0.4 Mill. Our forecast suggests €2.2 Mill. for the full year, implying a mean increase in quarterly sales of €200 ths. We have to await Q2 results in order to see whether the new strategy (addressing larger mid-size companies) works out.
On a yoy basis, EBITDA reduced its deficit from €-581 ths. to €-451 ths. due to the relief from fixed costs related to PT.
We leave our forecasts unchanged. With a fair value of €1.98 per share we reiterate our “Buy” rating (for the complete valuation part see our Basic Report Update from May 11, 2018).
Max 21 AG, formerly MAX21 Management und Beteiligungen AG, is a Germany-based technology holding that specializes in the areas of information security and digital communications. Among others, the Company holds interests in Binect GmbH and KeyIdentity GmbH. Binect GmbH is a provider of encrypted communication, and develops software that allows or collect and coordinate e-mails from various platforms. In cooperation with Deutsche Post AG, Binect GmbH offers a hybrid business communication and postal distribution solution, including printing, enveloping, franking and delivery. KeyIdentity GmbH provides digital access and identity security solutions. It is a supplier of the LinOTP Product Suite, which is used in adaptive multi-factor authentication.
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