EUR 778.00 For Business Accounts Only

Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: Netherlands, 2016 Q4

​A strengthening but moderate recovery is underway in the Netherlands after a double-dip recession ending in early 2014. The recovery has been driven primarily by exports (lower natural gas production and exports curbed growth in the second quarter of 2015 but did not interrupt its momentum) and to a lesser extent by investment. According to the IMF, real GDP growth should remain well orientated at +1.6% in 2017 and +1.8% in 2018. Unemployment is slowly falling, and inflation is low, although positive in 2016 and picking up again in early 2017, as in the monetary union as a whole. In terms of public finances, as the output gap closes in the medium to long term, consolidation should continue to rebuild fiscal buffers, e.g. by bringing public debt below 60% of GDP. The Netherlands is receiving a high number of refugees and the cost of accommodating them will be unpredictable but significant in the near term. However, in the longer term, there will be demographic and growth dividends if those refugees are effectively integrated.