reports
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: China, Q4
China's economy grew by 6.7% in 2016 – its slowest rate in 26 years. While the country’s new five-year plan has set a growth target of 6.5-7% per year by 2020, the IMF predicts a slightly lower rate (between 6 and 6.5%). The official unemployment rate of 4.1% is expected to remain steady in the coming years. However, these figures are deceptively low, first because they have remained unchanged since 2010 despite a slowdown in the economy; second because of high underemployment, especially in...
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: India, Q4
India’s economy is on the right track, helped by a large terms-of-trade gain (c. 2.5% of GDP), positive policy action and reduced external vulnerabilities. Since late 2014 and the collapse of oil prices, India’s economic activity has boosted and underpinned a further improvement in the country’s current account and fiscal positions. This context has also fostered a sharp decline in inflation. A range of supply-side initiatives (including the release of surplus grain buffer stocks) and appr...
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: Indonesia, Q4
Indonesia is well rated compared with its peers, especially in terms of its composite score (equal to Philippines and Thailand; better than Morocco, Nigeria and Egypt), thanks to robust growth and greater macroeconomic stability. Strong private consumption has helped the country to maintain economic activity growth despite the Chinese slowdown. Inflation remains within the official target range (4%±1%), although is expected to be slightly higher in 2017 due to lower electricity subsidies. Overa...
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: Japan, Q4
Economic growth has slowed in Japan due to weak private consumption and sluggish investment, while inflation has lost its forward momentum. Although financial conditions remain accommodative, appreciation of the JPY has resulted in modest tightening. The authorities have responded to a weaker domestic and external economic environment by providing additional monetary and fiscal support, including adopting a negative interest rate policy, planning for additional fiscal stimulus and postponing the...
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: Malaysia, Q4
Malaysia has a somewhat above-average risk profile compared with similar emerging countries. It has high economic growth, limited unemployment and strong inflation targeting, in addition to a number of energy- and climate-related benefits owing to its oil and gas reserves and CO2 sinks based on land use and forestry. Malaysia’s external positions are a weakness but its current account balance is positive and its public finances are satisfactory. Its main weaknesses are its limited GDP/capita, ...
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: Morocco, Q4
As a lower-middle income country with no hydrocarbon resources (rare in northern Africa), Morocco is on a challenging path to development. However, its economic growth is solid and an accommodative monetary policy is facilitating its smooth transition through well-anchored inflation expectations. Furthermore, to meet growing energy needs (growing industrial sector and tourism), after staging the COP22 in late 2016, Morocco launched an ambitious yet achievable sustainable development policy. The ...
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: Netherlands, 2016 Q4
​A strengthening but moderate recovery is underway in the Netherlands after a double-dip recession ending in early 2014. The recovery has been driven primarily by exports (lower natural gas production and exports curbed growth in the second quarter of 2015 but did not interrupt its momentum) and to a lesser extent by investment. According to the IMF, real GDP growth should remain well orientated at +1.6% in 2017 and +1.8% in 2018. Unemployment is slowly falling, and inflation is low, although ...
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: Qatar, Q4
​For 20 years, Qatar has reaped the benefits of having by far the largest gas reserves per capita in the world and, since 2007, has been the biggest LNG exporter in the world. A strong development trend has allowed the country to ride out downward phases in oil prices since 2008 with limited economic damage, masking the weaknesses of what is, after all, a rentier model. The collapse of oil and gas prices since the end of 2014 has translated into red signals on gross public and external debt, i...
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: Saudi Arabia, Q4 2016
​Saudi Arabia is trapped in a do-or-die situation. The oil price war strategy deployed since Q4 2014 is not bearing fruits as US shale oil producers resist the oil price collapse thanks to continuing capital and debt flows. The violent contraction of oil-related income, fiscal resources and financial assets precipitates initiatives for reforms: downsizing of public sector, development of non-oil revenues, water and energy subsidies cuts. However, because these reforms had always been delayed, ...
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: Thailand, Q4
​Thailand’s composite score is slightly below the average of its peers (Indonesia, Peru, China, Malaysia and Vietnam). The country’s economy is recovering, but the outlook is subject to several risks. GDP growth stood at 3.2% in 2016 and is projected to remain stable in 2017 according to the IMF, but below that of most other ASEAN economies. Thailand appears to be resilient to external challenges, with high international reserves and relatively low foreign debt acting as a buffer against g...
Sovereign Risk Country Scorecard: South Africa, Q4 2016
More than twenty-five years after the end of Apartheid, South Africa still struggles to cope with its difficult past. In the late 1990s, after a hasty reconciliation process, the country started its economic transition towards more inclusion. Alas, the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-08 severely hampered this process and showed that there was more to be done in terms of both economic reconstruction and social/racial reintegration. Public debt quickly started rising, exposing the limitation...
National Climate Budget Methodology
​Beyond Ratings proposes a strong methodological innovation to determine the future GHG emission budgets, at the national level, compatible with a target of an overall temperature rise of less than 2 ° C. Our probabilistic approach is based on: - Integrating the constraints imposed by global warming - The performances of the various players measured by the terms of the Kaya Equation (GHG emissions, energy consumption, demography, GDP evolution) - National demographic projectionsThe Beyond Rat...
What effects of the integration of "Energy-Climate-Natural Resources" ...
​The Beyond Ratings country risk proprietary methodology is based on five pillars of analysis, of which the Energy-Climate-Natural Resources (ECR) pillar is the main innovation in comparison with conventional methodologies. The comparative analysis of risk scores, excluding and including the Energy-Climate-Natural Resources determinants, reveals that they provide distinct complementary information to the determinants of the other pillars.
Social Performance and State Economic Growth
​Is a higher-than-expected level of social development / GDP ratio a strength or weakness in terms of additional income generation? The gap analysis between actual GDP and a theoretical GDP consistent with the level of social development achieved (called sustainable GDP) shows that over a five-year period, countries whose social performance is above average have significantly higher growth. This is obviously not a first-order determinant of future growth, but the quantitative assessment of act...
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