BGC Partners - Kardemir Karabuk Demir Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. D (KRDMD) BGC Partners: KARDEMIR 1Q19 â€“ IN LINE

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BGC Partners

Erdem Hafizoglu

EUR 103.24 For Business Accounts Only

BGC Partners: KARDEMIR 1Q19 â€“ IN LINE

Kardemir reported TL67.6mn net profit in 1Q19, above estimates (consensus: -TL28mn, BGC: -TL81mn) mainly due to TL99mn tax income, operationally in line... The bottom line has been supported by TL99mn (one-off) tax income, a reversal of 4Q18â€™s TL292mn tax expense, which was mainly related with the FX related issues on the railway wheel investment incentives. Adjusting for this one-off, bottom line is in line with the consensus estimate

10/05/2019 3 EN

Underlying

Kardemir Karabuk Demir Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. D

Kardemir Karabuk Demir Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret manufactures and sells raw iron and steel products and coke and coke side products. KARABUK Co.'s products include: Steel Products - Blooms, Billets and Beam Blank; Rolling Mill Products - Hot Rolled Round Steel (Bars), Hot Rolled Round Steel (Deformed Bars), Steel Nip Beams, Steel Npu Profiles, Equal Angles, GI Profile, Rails and Billets; Coke Products - Coke Plant Products, Ammonium Sulphate, Pressed Naphthalane, Tar Paint, Carbolic Oil, Grude Benzole, Refine Washed Oil and Crude Tar and Other Products - Pig Irons, Granule Slag, Oxygen, Nitrogen, Argon.

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TRAKRDMR91G7 Istanbul Stock Exchange Turkey

Provider

BGC Partners

BGC has been one of the major market players in Turkish OTC debt, FX and swaps markets since 1998.

We started offering corporate finance and investment banking services to our clients in 2013. We offer a complete range of financial services to help our clients achieve their goals. Our main areas of activity within investment banking are as follows:

Mergers & Acquisitions
Equity Capital Markets
Debt Finance & Advisory

See profile

Analysts

Erdem Hafizoglu

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Upgrading to Buy on valuation and potential domestic tailwinds: We upgrade Kardemir to Buy (from Hold) and raise our 12-month target price to TL40.4/share (from TL34.5), implying 49% upside from the current share price. The change reflects (1) a modestly higher FY26–27 EBITDA/tonne trajectory, (2) slightly higher FY26–27 volume assumptions as partial debottlenecking is expected around March 2026, and (3) updated macro inputs. Despite the slight recovery in share price over the past one month, 5% outperformance vs. BIST-100, Kardemir shares have been a tangible underperformer over the past one-...

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We are downgrading our rating for Kardemir (D-type shares) to Hold from Buy. We have slightly revised down 12M TP by 3% to TL22.5/s, implying 12M total return potential of 7% and corresponding to a Hold rating. Shares returned 41%/23% in USD over the past 3M/1Y with a 36% outperformance vs. BIST-100 over the past three months. Accordingly, on our estimates, Kardemir is trading FY23E P/E of 5.7x (vs. 5Y median: 6.1x) and EV/EBITDA of 3.3x (vs. 5Y median: 3.6x), thus close to its historic averages. We expect Kardemir’s EBITDA/tonne to improve sequentially in 1H23 from USD67 in 4Q22 led by 1) Pro...

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Excluding Kardemir from our top picks: We are excluding Kardemir from our top picks. Shares have returned 58% in absolute TRY terms and performed in-line (1% outperformance) vs. BIST-100 since its inclusion to our model portfolio since January, 2021. While shares have reached an outperformance in excess of 40% in early March 2022; substantial increase in global recessionary concerns coupled normalization of the initial surge in regional steel prices related to the Russia/Ukraine conflict have led to a tangible decline in product prices and spreads. While we maintain our fundamental positive vi...

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BGC Partners: TURKEY - Central Government Budget continued to improve in February

Finance Ministry released February Central Government budget figures and the data showed further improvement in budget balances, as already suggested by the Treasury cash budget figures.

EUR 103.24

March 16, 2020 March 16, 2020 1 EN

Cagdas Dogan

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: No major change in inflation forecasts and a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT next week...

OUR TAKE: We observe no major change in inflation expectations, as the positive surprise in February reading seems to be offset by increased depreciation pressure on TL, while 2020 GDP growth forecast has been cut for the first time since July 2019. Meanwhile, there seems to be a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT in next weekâ€™s meeting, 100bps over the next three months, and 175bps over the next twelve months. We currently plug in a 50bps rate cut in our forecasts in next weekâ€™s meeting, followed by a 25bps in the April meeting. (CBT, BGC Partners)

EUR 103.24

March 13, 2020 March 13, 2020 2 EN

Cagdas Dogan

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Retail sales volume maintained a strong trend in January

According to Turkstat, retail sales volume registered a 9.6% y/y expansion in January 2020 in unadjusted terms; while the calendar-adjusted figure also increased by 9.6% y/y in January, which is a quite strong figure, albeit indicating a mild slow down compared to the 11.9% increase recorded in December 2019.

EUR 103.24

March 13, 2020 March 13, 2020 2 EN

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BGC Partners: KARDEMIR 1Q19 â€“ IN LINE

Kardemir - Upgrade to Buy. Domestic tailwinds, cautious on the global backdrop.

Kardemir

Top Picks Portfolio

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Central Government Budget continued to improve in February

BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: No major change in inflation forecasts and a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT next week...

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Retail sales volume maintained a strong trend in January

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