Bryan Garnier - Novo Nordisk (novob) NOVO NORDISK: Impressive semaglutide at ADA | NEUTRAL | DKK358(+5%)

Report

Bryan Garnier

Eric Lemarie

NOVO NORDISK: Impressive semaglutide at ADA | NEUTRAL | DKK358(+5%)

NOVO NORDISK - NEUTRAL | DKK358(+5%)
Impressive semaglutide at ADA

Lilly vs. Novo-Nordisk: two contenders for a multibillion war
ADA 2019 tried hard to compare Lilly and Novo with GLP1s
PIONEER-6 data impressed
ADA 2019 was at least a point victory round for Novo Nordisk

12/06/2019 3 EN

Underlying

Novo Nordisk

See profile

Provider

Bryan Garnier

Since 1996, Bryan, Garnier & Co has been growing with an absolute conviction that the investment banking landscape would experience a major revolution: most of the large local generalist banking groups will disappear to the benefit of a handful of global powerhouses, and an emerging group of independent, highly specialised boutique investment banks.

See profile

Analysts

Eric Lemarie

Other Reports on these Companies

New Street Research

Novo - Upgrade to HOLD (PT DKK300, 8pgs)

With the orfo’ data being on the lower side of expectations, we upgrade to Hold as the narrative is likely to be dominated by the potential upside for Novo. However, we remain convinced that: 1) The obesity market is nowhere near as big as the market believes, 2) Ozempic no’s are far too high & 3) Margin forecasts need to fall. Cons’ Ozempic forecasts will take time to fall & we will likely need the IRA price in November to force consensus lower. Therefore, we see limited S-T downside to our DKK300 PT. In upcoming research, we will show why the obesity market is materially smaller than expecta...

EUR 4271.50

August 8, 2025 August 8, 2025 1 EN

New Street Research

Novo - Oversize Downgrade - PT Cut to DKK300 (SELL, TP DKK300 [350], 8pgs)

Whilst our downgrade to Sell [here] was predicated on reduced Ozempic sales & significantly below cons. forecasts, the magnitude of the ’25 profit warning has led to a material reset of our forecasts & we are now >30% below cons. EBIT in 2029. We expect the debate to now focus on valuation given we model just 5% 25-30 CAGR sales growth & sema accounts for 60% of 2030 EBIT. Worryingly, our EPS declines in 2027 having cut our sales forecasts by 4-9% & EBIT forecasts by 6%-13%. We are now 27% below 2027 cons. EPS (pre-warning). Given the lacklustre growth of both the diabetes & obesity markets, w...

EUR 4271.50

July 30, 2025 July 30, 2025 1 EN

New Street Research

Novo - Mounjaro Efficacy Slowing GLP-1 Growth (SELL, TP DKK350, 11pgs)

With US GLP-1 volume growth in diabetes stalling to just 5%, we examine the evidence that Mounjaro’s high efficacy has resulted in a surge of patients getting to HbA1c goal & discontinuing treatment. We analyse the literature & clinical data that shows that GLP-1 market growth could slow dramatically for years to come given Mounjaro is now half the US GLP-1 volume in diabetics. We expect Mounjaro’s NBRx share to be >70% by end 2026, likely resulting in further downgrades to Ozempic consensus. Based on our analysis, if CagriSema does switch diabetic patients away from Ozempic, the treatment dur...

EUR 4271.50

July 28, 2025 July 28, 2025 1 EN

Fastned: H1 results, GM recovery, roll-out acceleration expected in H2

This morning, Fastned published its H1 2025 key metrics and number of operating stations. H1 sales came in at EUR54.3m (+44% YoY), implying revenue of EUR26.3m in Q2 2025 (-9% vs cons. at EUR28.9m) and pointing to an annual run-rate of at least EUR108m (vs cons. at EUR130.8m for FY25 and STFe EUR13

August 14, 2025 August 14, 2025 1 EN

Mahaut Arnaud ... (+3)

Mahaut Arnaud
Paul de Froment
Thomas Mordelle

Avantium: financing package update

Yesterday, Avantium announced it had reached a conditional agreement with ABN AMRO, ASN, ING, Invest-NL and Rabobank to extend and amend its senior debt facility agreement, representing up to EUR125.1m as of December 2024. As such, (i) the remaining EUR14.1m debt commitment would be cancelled in ex

August 13, 2025 August 13, 2025 1 EN

Damien Choplain ... (+2)

Damien Choplain
Oscar Haffen Lamm

Valneva : Strong H1 - Key Lyme vaccine catalyst ahead in Q4

Valneva delivered a solid H1 and reaffirmed its 2025 guidance. The company’s cash position, standing at €161m, is sufficient to fund operations through 2027e, providing solid financial visibility. Looking ahead, the next key catalyst is the Phase III data readout for VLA15, Valneva’s Lyme disease v

August 12, 2025 August 12, 2025 1 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

NOVO NORDISK: Impressive semaglutide at ADA | NEUTRAL | DKK358(+5%)

Novo - Upgrade to HOLD (PT DKK300, 8pgs)

Novo - Oversize Downgrade - PT Cut to DKK300 (SELL, TP DKK300 [350], 8pgs)

Novo - Mounjaro Efficacy Slowing GLP-1 Growth (SELL, TP DKK350, 11pgs)

Fastned: H1 results, GM recovery, roll-out acceleration expected in H2

Avantium: financing package update

Valneva : Strong H1 - Key Lyme vaccine catalyst ahead in Q4

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe