reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - 2025 Growth Sensitivities (BUY, TP DKK1150, 8pgs)
Following management commentary on sales growth in 2025, we have calculated the implied sensitivity to Wegovy supply & the potential impact on consensus group sales. We show that high-teens group sales growth implies 40% US Wegovy sales growth in 2025. This is below consensus. Given our previous analysis [here] on falling Wegovy prices but higher volumes, the CTLT deal is now the most important catalyst, in our view: even more important than the cagrisema readout, which we forecast accounts for ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo Nordisk - CagriSema Valuation Sensitivities (BUY, TP DKK1150)
Whilst the potential P3 data outcomes are widely understood, we are increasingly being asked what the valuation impact would be under various scenarios as investors position themselves for the upcoming readout. We assess 4 potential scenarios ranging from worst case to best case and calculate the peak sales impact, the NPV impact and what might happen to Novo’s valuation & multiple under each scenario. Based on the outcome, we see a $24bn delta in CagriSema peak sales, a -6% to +14% NPV impact...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Obesity Thematic - A Deep-Dive into Amylin
In the coming days at Obesity Week, we will see multiple datasets from amylin assets that could help to further support our belief that amylin combinations could become a material MOA in the Obesity market. Ahead of the Cagrisema P3 readout, we dig deep into the potential for amylin and show: 1) It has a superior tolerability profile, 2) Could preserve lean muscle mass and 3) Could be neuroprotective. We analyse the majority of the clinical data available on these drugs & show that the full prom...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Collapsing Wegovy Prices is Bullish (BUY, TP DKK 1150, 16 pgs)
In this deep-dive, we show that despite our 2027 Wegovy price of just $200/mth in the US, we are ~20% above consensus on Wegovy & ~30% above cons. on Novo’s Obesity portfolio in 2030. We show why we expect pricing to collapse but that market fears on pricing are far too pessimistic. We believe Wegovy will become the US market leader by volume and benefit from step edits from 2027 onwards. We model Commercial & Medicare channels separately for both price & volume & also show compelling evidence t...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Sema Likely to Work in Alzheimer’s (BUY, TP DKK1150 [1100], 11 ...
New analysis of 6 studies shows strong & conclusive evidence that GLP-1 use reduces Alzheimer’s (AD) symptoms, in our view. Novo are trialling oral sema (14mg) in AD, which is due to read out in Sept ’25. Following our analysis, we now assume a 70% chance of success for this trial, which is obviously very high for an AD P3 trial. We show that peak sales could be $10bn even though we assume $150/mth in the US. Furthermore, due to complex manufacturing, those sales could be much more durable. If w...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Obesity Market Deep-Dive - Part 1: Fragmentation Underestimated
In the 1st of a 3-part series, we show that the obesity market is set to become incredibly complex, with the current duopoly to be weakened, creating several investment opportunities over the coming years. We expect >15 drugs to launch by 2027, with >5 oral & >10 injectable, with >5 different mechanisms, from ~5 different companies. This fragmentation will create much more dynamism than currently assumed by the market. The statin market provides significant learnings for this fragmentation. We s...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Thematic Research - Quantifying The Impact From Part D Reform
In 2025, Big Pharma will be exposed to further US drug pricing reform as a result of the IRA act. This is the final big change to play out and we calculate there is the potential for a mid-single digit EBIT impact for some companies, but there is material heterogeneity in terms of the magnitude of the impact. There is also the potential for upside for Novo & LLY. However, given the significant complexity in the reimburse-ment changes & in computing the current sales in Medicare Part D, we are re...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Wegovy Stockpiling Almost $5bn (BUY, TP DKK1100, 5 pgs)
Our latest analysis shows that Novo could drive material consensus upgrades by starting to release a potential ~$5bn Wegovy stockpile. With Novo restricting Wegovy supply between Nov-21 & Dec-22, and then from May-23 onwards, they have built up a substantial stockpile of product, in our view. Our analysis of their inventory shows there is likely as much as $5bn of finished or close-to-finished Wegovy product at current US net prices. Our analysis of the supply chain and distribution strategy exp...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - 8 Reasons It’s Going to DKK1100 (BUY, TP DKK1100 [850], 18 pgs)
Novo are just too good to bet against. We now increase our 2030 obesity franchise sales to $50bn and most importantly show that sema’ is only 27% of group sales in 2031. Therefore, if sema’ sales halve by 2034, it’s only a ~5% p.a. headwind to group sales 2032-34. Greater visibility on the post-sema outlook is a strong reason for the Novo multiple to be retained into 2025. We see 8 reasons why Novo will hit DKK1100 in the next year, driven by EPS upgrades, increased supply & P3 readouts. We see ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 2024 Year Ahead (28 pgs)
For EU Pharma, 2024 is likely to be characterised by EPS revisions, a handful of new launches & sluggish EPS growth for a number of names. The relative lack of pipeline catalysts makes forecasting sales and EPS much more important than for 2023. We identify 4 key issues to watch for: 1) Medicaid AMP cap removal, 2) Higher tax costs, 3) Higher debt costs & 4) a handful of very specific company issues that could make a material difference to performance (Novo: Wegovy supply, GSK: litigation, SAN: ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Wegovy – 3 More Sources of Upside (BUY, TP DKK850 [800], 15 pgs...
Following the SELECT readout, we are increasingly asked by investors what is next for the Novo investment thesis. We now identify 3 sources of upside to Wegovy consensus forecasts & increase our peak sales to $28bn. We show that, 1) Medicaid is worth $6bn in peak sales & is largely ignored, 2) The lack of Medicare access is likely to have the perverse positive impact of raising Wegovy’s net price & the IRA now has a smaller impact, & 3) Supply into 2024 is likely to be better than consensus is m...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Thematic - Obesity Drugs Won’t Change The World
Despite our bullish stance on Novo & the obesity drugs, in this note we aim to show the minimal impact they will have on the broader economy despite recent fears that new obesity drugs will have a material negative impact on a broad range of sectors. We show that these claims are well overblown in the near-term, with only 0.15% of the US population currently on anti-obesity drugs (AODs). Our forecasts, which point to a $50bn US market by 2030, imply that
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - $10bn Wegovy in 2024 (BUY, TP DKK800 [750], 13 pgs)
Using a similar scrip based analysis that led us to be considerably above consensus at the beginning of 2023, we show consensus is $3bn too low on ‘24 US Wegovy sales. This would drive an ~11% consensus EBIT upgrade next year. We show Novo’s supply chain can comfortably deliver 50k new patient starts per week through Q2-Q424, generating $9.6bn in US Wegovy sales, driving our $10bn Global Wegovy sales forecast for 2024. We now forecast 31% sales & 38% EPS growth in 2024 despite assuming $1bn high...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
NOVO - Wegovy Peak Sales now $25bn (BUY, TP DKK 1500)
In this note, we increase our Wegovy peak by $10bn following SELECT, include 70% a chance of Medicare reimbursement, include the IRA impact in 2027 on Wegovy, show that SELECT makes Wegovy value for money, increase Wegovy stay time, we expect Wegovy to be added to AHA guidelines & thus anti-obesity drugs to be legitimised and finally, we increase our PT to DKK1500. The inclusion of Medicare adds $9bn to our peak sales and we cut our US price per scrip by 60% by 2028. Our highly conservative assu...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - SELECT Trial - 10 Points to Consider (BUY, TP DKK1300)
Wegovy’s SELECT has just read out positively with a much better than expected 20% MACE risk reduction in Overweight or Obese patients with CV disease. This has a number of implications and we believe there is considerable upside to consensus forecasts for Novo and all other GLP-1 compounds. For access to the full comment and to discuss these results, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - IRA Impact Analysed (Thematic Research, 16pgs)
The IRA is a complex piece of legislation that will materially cut some US drug prices. With the IRA newsflow set to amp up, our analysis of the impact on EU Pharma shows that the IRA has a negligible effect on value. We calculate that the IRA negotiations will reduce sector sales by 1.5% by 2030, driving a 4% EBIT impact, but just a ~1% NPV impact. The only concern we have is if pricing in the commercial channel is also affected. We show that in this scenario, where price in commercial is the s...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - GLP-1 Pricing to Collapse (BUY, TP DKK1300, 10 pgs)
The Novo investment thesis currently has a multitude of moving parts. On Wegovy, supply, price, duration, penetration rates & TAM are all material unknowns. On Ozempic, price, GLP-1 mkt growth & Mounjaro risk are all considerations. Then Rybelsus, Cagrisema, oral sema in obesity & icodec peak sales are all unknowns. Let alone NASH, Alzheimer’s or any other uses for GLP-1’s. HOWEVER, the body of work we have published in recent months show the clear potential for Novo to meet cons. expectations w...
- Brian Moretta
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
- Riccardo Bindi
Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2023
Feature article: 2022 Pharma Statistics - 8.7% growth – but worrying signs An efficient reporting system has seen all the listed multinational pharmaceutical companies announcing results for 2022, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database. This report provides the first snapshot of the global and US rankings of the top 20 drug companies for 2022. 2022 was characterised by 8.7% underlying growth, offset by a large forex impact (-12%), due to USD stren...
INCY INCYTE CORP
IPN IPSEN SA
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED
TEVA.N TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
REGN REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
LLY MERCK & CO. INC.
JNJ ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
J7Z JOHNSON & JOHNSON
HZNP JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY
GILD HORIZON THERAPEUTICS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY
BMY GILEAD SCIENCES INC.
BIIB BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY
FEV BIOGEN INC.
IBT FIDELITY EUROPEAN VALUES PLC
FCSS INTERNATIONAL BIOTECHNOLOGY TRUST PLC
FSV FIDELITY CHINA SPECIAL SITUATIONS PLC
FJV FIDELITY SPECIAL VALUES PLC
FAS FIDELITY JAPAN TRUST
AVO FIDELITY ASIAN VALUES PLC
CLIG ADVANCED ONCOTHERAPY
MRK CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT GROUP
NOVO B MERCK KGAA
novob NOVO NORDISK A/S CLASS B
RECI NOVO NORDISK
SAN REAL ESTATE CREDIT INVESTMENTS
UCB SANOFI
HIK UCB S.A.
PIN HIKMA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC
PFIZER PANTHEON INTERNATIONAL
4506 PFIZER
4523 SUMITOMO DAINIPPON PHARMA CO. LTD.
4507 EISAI CO. LTD.
4568 SHIONOGI & CO. LTD.
VTAS DAIICHI SANKYO COMPANY LIMITED
STX VOLTA FINANCE (GBP)
4502 SHIELD THERAPEUTICS
HAT TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
OCI H&T GROUP
4578 OAKLEY CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
APAX OTSUKA HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
4503 APAX GLOBAL ALPHA
ICGT ASTELLAS PHARMA INC.
UTHR ICG ENTERPRISE TRUST
PFE UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION
AZN PFIZER INC.
GLAXO ASTRAZENECA PLC
ABBV GLAXOSMITHKLINE PHARMACEUTICALS
VRX CN ASTELLAS PHARMA INC
MRNA ABBVIE INC.
TXG BAUSCH HEALTH COMPANIES INC.
NOVO MODERNA INC.
VTRS 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
4568.T NOVO NORDISK A/S-B
ME VIATRIS INC.
OCL DAIICHI SANKYO COMPANY
LUND A LIMITED
23ANDME HLDG CO
OAKLEY CAPITAL
H. LUNDBECK A/S
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - $7bn Wegovy This Year – PT Now DKK1300 (BUY, TP 1300 [1100], 10...
We increase our 2023 Wegovy forecasts to $7bn (from $4bn) which drives 50% EPS growth this year putting us 20% above consensus & far ahead of company guidance. Our bottom-up scrip-based 2023 Wegovy model has been well validated & we now have high confidence that Wegovy can sell $7bn in the US alone & that Novo can supply this demand. Moreover, we show that if no new patients started then 2023 sales would be at $4.2bn in the US and that the net price should be 50% higher this year. Our analysis l...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Wegovy Tracker: Starter Scrips Still Growing
Another week, another strong performance from Wegovy on the scrips. We now have Wegovy volume data through to 24th February and despite a slowdown in the starter scrips to the 17th, they have picked up again, confounding our expectations of an imminent peak. Whilst we still do expect a peak to the starter scrips in the near term, every week it beats our expectations adds further evidence to our argument that consensus is far too low on Wegovy expectations for 2023 and that Novo will need to upgr...
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