SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,130,500 units in January, down 1.5 percent from a year ago.
This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.5 million units for the month, down from an 18.4 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should remain flat with 923,369 units.
“Exceptionally strong sales to close out 2016 led to a slow start in January, but additional incentives towards the end of the month helped pick up the slack,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst.
Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,635 per vehicle in January, up 21.6 percent from a year ago, and down 3.3 percent from December 2016.
“On a year-over-year basis, Honda is gaining about 0.5 percent market share on the continued popularity of its new products in the compact utility and pick up segments,” said Lyman.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 98.1 this month compared to 98.2 in December which further underscores the strength of a healthy US economy; the December unemployment rate came in at a nine year low of 4.7 percent in combination with a favorable average gas price of $2.29 recorded for this current week.
Other key findings for January:
- Registration mix is expected to be 81.7 percent retail sales and 18.3 percent fleet versus 80.5 percent retail and 19.5 percent fleet last January.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,139,957, up 7.9 percent from January 2016.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
|
Total Unit Sales |
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|
Manufacturer |
January 2017 Forecast |
January 2016 |
% Change vs. January 2016 |
||||
| BMW | 20,700 | 21,390 | -3.2 | % | |||
| Daimler | 25,000 | 26,962 | -7.3 | % | |||
| FCA | 141,000 | 155,562 | -9.4 | % | |||
| Ford | 167,000 | 172,478 | -3.2 | % | |||
| GM | 198,000 | 203,745 | -2.8 | % | |||
| Honda | 105,000 | 100,497 | 4.5 | % | |||
| Hyundai | 40,500 | 45,011 | -10.0 | % | |||
| Kia | 40,000 | 38,305 | 4.4 | % | |||
| Nissan | 103,000 | 105,734 | -2.6 | % | |||
| Subaru | 46,000 | 41,101 | 11.9 | % | |||
| Toyota | 160,000 | 161,283 | -0.8 | % | |||
| Volkswagen Group | 40,500 | 36,430 | 11.2 | % | |||
|
Industry |
1,130,500 |
1,148,057 |
-1.5 |
% |
|||
|
Total Market Share |
||||||||||||
|
Manufacturer |
January 2017 Forecast |
January 2016 |
December 2016 |
|||||||||
| BMW | 1.8 | % | 1.9 | % | 2.2 | % | ||||||
| Daimler | 2.2 | % | 2.3 | % | 2.2 | % | ||||||
| FCA | 12.5 | % | 13.6 | % | 11.5 | % | ||||||
| Ford | 14.8 | % | 15.0 | % | 14.1 | % | ||||||
| GM | 17.5 | % | 17.7 | % | 18.9 | % | ||||||
| Honda | 9.3 | % | 8.8 | % | 9.5 | % | ||||||
| Hyundai | 3.6 | % | 3.9 | % | 3.6 | % | ||||||
| Kia | 3.5 | % | 3.3 | % | 3.2 | % | ||||||
| Nissan | 9.1 | % | 9.2 | % | 9.0 | % | ||||||
| Subaru | 4.1 | % | 3.6 | % | 3.7 | % | ||||||
| Toyota | 14.2 | % | 14.0 | % | 14.4 | % | ||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 3.6 | % | 3.2 | % | 3.8 | % | ||||||
|
Retail Unit Sales |
|||||||
|
Manufacturer |
January 2017 |
January 2016 |
YoY % |
||||
| BMW | 19,884 | 20,061 | -0.9 | % | |||
| Daimler | 23,225 | 25,170 | -7.7 | % | |||
| FCA | 101,500 | 113,274 | -10.4 | % | |||
| Ford | 116,000 | 114,090 | 1.7 | % | |||
| GM | 157,000 | 165,686 | -5.2 | % | |||
| Honda | 103,500 | 99,148 | 4.4 | % | |||
| Hyundai | 29,000 | 28,522 | 1.7 | % | |||
| Kia | 32,500 | 30,364 | 7.0 | % | |||
| Nissan | 82,000 | 79,246 | 3.5 | % | |||
| Subaru | 44,718 | 39,280 | 13.8 | % | |||
| Toyota | 137,000 | 140,255 | -2.3 | % | |||
| Volkswagen Group | 37,635 | 33,893 | 11.0 | % | |||
|
Industry |
923,369 |
923,674 |
0.0 |
% |
|||
|
Incentive Spending |
|||||||||||||||||
|
Manufacturer |
Incentive |
Incentive |
Incentive |
Incentive |
Incentive |
Total Spending |
|||||||||||
| BMW | $ | 6,016 | $ | 4,192 | $ | 5,956 | 43.5 | % | 1.0 | % | $ | 124,114,569 | |||||
| Daimler | $ | 4,648 | $ | 3,592 | $ | 4,885 | 29.4 | % | -4.8 | % | $ | 116,207,827 | |||||
| FCA | $ | 4,408 | $ | 3,856 | $ | 4,469 | 14.3 | % | -1.4 | % | $ | 616,627,187 | |||||
| Ford | $ | 4,114 | $ | 3,054 | $ | 4,156 | 34.7 | % | -1.0 | % | $ | 687,038,184 | |||||
| GM | $ | 4,504 | $ | 4,094 | $ | 4,653 | 10.0 | % | -3.2 | % | $ | 891,763,957 | |||||
| Honda | $ | 2,231 | $ | 1,672 | $ | 2,289 | 33.5 | % | -2.5 | % | $ | 234,289,096 | |||||
| Hyundai | $ | 2,602 | $ | 1,904 | $ | 2,603 | 36.7 | % | 0.0 | % | $ | 105,400,435 | |||||
| Kia | $ | 3,411 | $ | 2,823 | $ | 3,390 | 20.8 | % | 0.6 | % | $ | 136,457,746 | |||||
| Nissan | $ | 4,335 | $ | 3,502 | $ | 4,463 | 23.8 | % | -2.9 | % | $ | 446,508,217 | |||||
| Subaru | $ | 1,120 | $ | 570 | $ | 1,170 | 96.6 | % | -4.2 | % | $ | 51,539,888 | |||||
| Toyota | $ | 2,538 | $ | 2,093 | $ | 2,820 | 21.3 | % | -10.0 | % | $ | 406,097,261 | |||||
| Volkswagen Group | $ | 4,117 | $ | 3,155 | $ | 4,254 | 30.5 | % | -3.2 | % | $ | 165,486,112 | |||||
|
Industry |
$ |
3,635 |
$ |
2,990 |
$ |
3,761 |
21.6 |
% |
-3.3 |
% |
$ |
4,090,739,254 |
|||||
|
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.) |
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About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.
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