Forget the past and focus on the future
Summary: ANY reached a reported net profit of HUF 841mn, but an adjusted net profit of HUF 339mn in 2020, well below our estimate of HUF 625mn. The difference is due to a one-off income as the Co. received a non-refundable subsidy of HUF 502mn from the HU Govt. to cover the losses incurred in 2020. Excluding this item, Q4 operating results were exceptionally weak, with net loss for the quarter having arrived at HUF 167million as a result of the lockdown, as well as the Holiday season and extra payments, which always affect negatively this quarter. More importantly, the BoD proposes a DPS of HUF 55 from 2020 profit, ahead of our forecast of HUF 45 a share, implying 4% DIVY. However, as we pointed out in our December note, we think that ANY could distribute at least HUF 105 per share (additional HUF 50 on top of the normal HUF 55) to the shareholders this year if the cash generation normalizes by the end of this “everlasting” pandemic. We expect a booming sales and net profit for 2021 due to pent-up demand as about 1.5 million personal documents need to be renewed in Hungary. In addition, ANY will produce and deliver the immunity certificates in Hungary, which could add HUF 500-1000mn per 1mn people in revenue terms and HUF 50-100mn per 1mn people in EBITDA terms. All in all, we are a bit disappointed due to Q4 results, but it’s worth concentrating on the brighter future and taking the positives with us.
Any Security Printing is a securities products group based in Hungary. Co. produces security products and solutions (tax stamps. stickers with security elements), plastic and paper cards (document cards, bank and telephone cards, commercial cards), personalized business and administration forms, and conventional printing products. Co.'s product offering its organized along three segments: Security Products, Solutions (paper-based documents, excise and tax stamps, security printers and security inks, additives); Card Production, Personalization (document cards, bank cards and loyalty cards); and Form Production, Personalization (transactional mailing, business, lottery and election forms).
Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary’s leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.
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